The U.S. Dollar closed lower against a basket of currencies
as appetite for risk drove traders away from the lower yielding Dollar into the
higher risk currencies.
The strong trend against the Dollar was set overnight when
the Reserve Bank of Australia
surprised most analysts with a 0.25% rate hike.A story then began circulating that a group of nations including Saudi Arabia and China had begun secret talks to
replace the Dollar as the crude oil pricing mechanism.Traders reacted to both of these news events
by selling the Dollar.
The move by the RBA sent a signal to the markets that the
Asian-Pacific Region may be in a better position than the U.S. and Europe
to mount a strong recovery out of the recession.In addition, some traders believe the Euro
Zone is in better shape than the U.S.
The story about the Dollar being replaced as the main
currency for pricing oil was denied by Saudi Arabia, but nonetheless
should be a major concern for Dollar traders.So far the Treasury, the so-called â€śDefenders of the Dollarâ€ť has not
made a comment, but their usual line is â€śwe stand behind a strong Dollar.â€ťThis plan may take years to implement, but
short-term traders reacted negatively to the news.
Demand for higher risk assets drove the EUR USD higher.The European Central Bank meets on October
8th.It is expected to keep interest
rates unchanged and remain concerned about the economy.ECB President Trichet has been vocal recently
about central banks maintaining their stimulus plans until the global economy
recovers.Because of this stance,
traders expect the ECB to continue to implement its stimulus programs.
The GBP USD continued to trade weaker.Todayâ€™s weaker than expected Factory Output
Report weighed on the Pound throughout the day.Losses were most likely limited by the weakness in the Dollar.The Bank of England is expected to leave
interest rates unchanged and its stimulus plan intact when it meets on October
Demand for higher yielding Japanese investments kept
downside pressure on the USD JPY.The
rally in the Yen seemed tentative, however, as traders are still nervous about
the possibility of an intervention by the Bank of Japan.The BoJ has expressed concerns about abnormal
price movement and excessive volatility.There should be no problems if the Yen increases at a steady pace driven
by economic reasons.
Firm energy and stock prices helped boost the Canadian
Dollar.Traders are betting that higher
crude oil prices will help to improve the Canadian economy. Although this
currency pair is trading in a range, Canadian officials are still concerned
that a rapid rise in the Canadian Dollar will hurt the export market.
The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked its benchmark
interest rate by 0.25% to 3.25%.This
came as a surprise to most analysts who were looking for a December hike.This move didnâ€™t surprise speculators who
were showing signs of an impending rate hike yesterday.Todayâ€™s gains may be attributed to investors
already pricing in another rate hike in December.
The NZD USD piggy-backed the move in the AUD USD today.The action by the RBA is sending a signal
that the Asian-Pacific Region is in a recovery.This means a better economy for New Zealand.Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is
on record saying that it would not raise rates until early next year, the move
by the Aussies may force the RBNZ to move up its plans.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
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Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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