Wednesday October 7, 2009 - 12:03:59 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 07-Oct-2009 - 1200 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0307/09...Bearish, but beware rally to 1.04
R: 1.0315-50 / 1.0405-35
S: 1.0265-35 / 1.0206
Dollar-Swiss has been relatively stable betwen 1.0265-0315 so far during the day. It still has Resistance in the 1.0315-50 region and then again in the 1.0405-35 region. While below 1.0350, there are decent chances of a fresh push towards 1.0220-00. In case of a rise past 1.0350, however, we might see a test of 1.0405 before selling comes in again.
Limit Sell Order:
Sell USD 10K at 1.0390 (up from 1.0330), SL 1.0455 (up from 1.0405), TP Open
GBP-USD @ 1.5880/83...Ranged
R: 1.5920-32 / 1.5989 / 1.6016-27
S: 1.5779-70 / 1.5651
Cable has continued to be ranged today. The 55-MA on the 4H chart is showing signs of flattening which is a good indicator of a ranged consolidation over the next few sessions. The range could be between 1.5820-1.6040. If it continues to consolidate, we might have to stop looking towards 1.6150 any further and look to Short near 1.6040 itself. A significant rise past 1.6040 would be curtailed near 1.6154 (55-MA on 8H). However, Till the 38.2% retracement Support of the rise from 1.3667 (10-Mar) to 1.7042 (4-Aug) at 1.5770 holds, the chances of a rise towards 1.6154 cannot be ruled out completely.
In the medium term, the target of 1.55-54 looks good. The 55-week MA at 1.5573 is likely to falter below 1.55 in the next week's candle. On the daily, the 200-MA is at 1.5446. A sharp fall looks likely to be supported near this target region.
Limit Sell Order:
Sell GBP 10K at 1.6010, SL 1.6060, TP 1.5870
Sell GBP 10K at 1.6150, SL 1.6230, TP 1.5870
AUD-USD @ 0.8901/03...Corrective fall possible
R: 0.8955 / 0.8978
S: 0.8890 / 0.8845-35 / 0.8799-77
In the morning we had mentioned Resistance in the 0.8925-50 region. The Aussie has seen a high near 0.8955 during the day and has retreated from there. Again, as mentioned in the morning, there could be chances of a corrective dip towards 0.8800-8775 in case the immediate Support at 0.8890 breaks. We may, therefore, sell on a break below 0.8890.
Stop Loss Sell Order:
Sell AUD 10K at 0.8880, SL 0.8920, TP 0.8823. As soon as the market trades 0.8865 after Entry, bring SL down to 0.8900.
Limit Buy Orders:
Buy AUD 10K at 0.8812, SL 0.8770, TP 0.9100
Buy AUD 10K at 0.8700, SL 0.8630, TP 0.9100
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