The U.S. Dollar tried to mount a rally throughout the day,
but failed at the close and ended up mixed for the day against most major
The EUR USD finished lower but off its lows.A late session stock market rally helped to
boost demand for higher risk assets which buoyed the Euro.Tomorrow the European Central Bank meets to
discuss monetary policy.Expectations
are for the ECB to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.0% and call for the
continuation of its stimulus packages.ECB President Trichet wants to see a solid recovery in the global
economy before ending any of its stimulus plans.
Look for the Bank of England to leave its benchmark interest
rate unchanged at 0.50%.Weakening
fundamentals continue to keep the pressure on the BoE to maintain its low
interest rate policy.Traders also
expect the BoE to leave its asset-buyback program unchanged.
In August the BoE voted to increase the amount of funding
available to purchase government debt.At
the time, there was some disagreement among members but a weak economy changed
the vote to unanimous in September.BoE
Governor King is also on record calling for a weaker Pound to help improve the
economy.All of this should be
reiterated in tomorrowâ€™s policy statement.
The USD JPY had a volatile trading day.After opening weaker, traders became
concerned that the Bank of Japan would implement some kind of an intervention
to push down the value of the Yen.This
triggered a rally in the USD JPY. By the end of the day, however, buyers took
over to drive the Yen higher.Demand for
higher yielding assets is likely to take the USD JPY through its recent bottom
at 88.23.The BoJ will allow this to
take place if economic reasons weaken the Dollar and the move is orderly.
The USD CAD remains rangebound as traders cannot make up
their minds as to which direction to take this market.Higher equity markets are driving up demand
for higher yielding assets, but weak energy markets are limiting gains.The inability of the U.S. economy to
mount a robust recovery is also keeping pressure on the Canadian Dollar because
the two economies are so closely related.Furthermore, even if the Canadian Dollar did strengthen, investors
arenâ€™t sure how far it could advance without causing damage to the Canadian
export market and causing concerns with the Bank of Canada.
The NZD USD and AUD USD took a breather after strong rallies
earlier in the week.Expectations are
for these two markets to continue to rise as long as the Australian central
bank can back up its recent interest rate hike with sound economic evidence of
a recovery.Traders are also expecting
to see improvements in the New
Zealand economy to support its recent
rise.Aussie traders are already talking
about another rate hike by December.The
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
is on record stating that it will keep interest rates low until early
2010.This could change if there is
evidence the New Zealand
economy is heating up.
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