Thursday October 8, 2009 - 03:42:31 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 08-Oct-2009 - 0335 GMT
The US equities were flat yesterday while the Asian indices are trading slightly higher today. Nikkei (9849.41) is up 0.51%. Hang Seng is up 0.45%. Globally the focus seems to have shifted to Australia. First with an unexpected rate increase and today with better than expected employment numbers, the nation had surprised the global markets. The Lab Force data released today showed an unexpected fall in unemployment rate to 5.7% as against street expectations of 6.0%. Data showed Australia had added 40.6K jobs in the month of August as against an expectation of drop of 9.7K
The Sensex (16806) had closed lower by 1% yesterday in a volatile trading session. Yesterday's amplitude was over 2% of yesterday's close. There's Support near 16600 and Resistance near 17400 and is likely to follow its Asian counterparts today.
Crude (70.18) fell and closed below 70 yesterday following the data from the US Energy Information Administration that showed a rise of 2.9 million barrels in gasoline stocks against the expected 1 million barrel rise. However, the Crude inventories fell by 1 million barrels against the expected increase of 1.9 million barrels. Crude might continue to trade between 67.50 and 72.50, the range in which it has been consolidating for some time.
Gold (1050.80) continuing to trade higher and looking strong on its upmove. As mentioned earlier, the longer term outlook remains bullish for a target of 1100-1200. On the downside Support is seen at 1020.
The Euro (1.4760) and Aussie (0.9021) continues trade strong on the upside. Aussie might see 0.9150 over the next few days and Euro might see 1.4850 on the upside. Dollar-Yen continues to trade lower and might target the previous low of 87.12 (Dec-08).
The Pound (1.6008) is trading sideways for some time and remains bearish with Resistance at 1.6100. Dollar-Swiss (1.0273) has fallen from yesterday's high of 1.0360 and is trading lower now. Support is seen in the region 1.0200-0175.
The Korean Won (1159) continues to remain strong and Dollar-Ruppee has closed at 46.65/66 yesterday.
3M USD LIBOR was kept unchanged at 0.28% yesterday. The yields on US Treasuries have fallen 5-6 bps for maturities over 2Y. The 10Y benchmark yields were quoting 6 bps lower at 3.19% while the 30Y bond yield is retesting the Support at 4%.
BoE and ECB Meet are scheduled for today. The market consensus is of no change. After the RBA increased interest rates on Tuesday, the traders have now started betting for a further increase next month backed by better than expected employment numbers. The yields on Australian Government bonds have risen nearly 10-17 bps. The yields on 2Y Aussie bonds rose 18 bps to 4.56%.
Sep Australia Labour Force
...Actual 40.6K...Previous -26.1K
11:00 GMT BOE Mtg
...Expected 0.50%...Previous 0.50%
11:45 GMT E-15 ECB Announcement
...Expected 1.00%...Previous 1.00%
EU GDP Q2 '09 (Fnl)
Actual -0.2%...Previous -0.1%
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