Thursday October 8, 2009 - 12:14:25 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 08-Oct-2009 - 1212 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0273/77...Bearish
R: 1.0300-20 / 1.0350-80 / 1.0430
S: 1.0240 / 1.0220-00 / 1.0120-00
Swiss continues to trade below 1.0300. Our view remains the same on the pair. The overall picture continues to be bearish with significant Resistance in the region 1.0350-80. We expect this Resistance region to hold in case if any sharp move above 1.0300 is seen in the US session today. On the downside Support is seen in the region 1.0220-00, a break below which might target 1.0120-00.
Limit Sell Order:
Sell USD 10K at 1.0350, SL 1.0430, TP Open
GBP-USD @ 1.6050/55...Finds Resistance at 1.6090
R: 1.6090-6105 / 1.6142 / 1.6190-6200
S: 1.6020 / 1.5963-50 / 1.5917
Cable rose towards 1.6092 ahead of the interest rate announcement by the BoE. The Resistance at 1.6100 is an important Resistance going forward. This is the 100-MA Resistance on the 4H and also the Projected Max High for the day. The range mentioned in the morning has been broken given the interest rate announcement by the BoE which has been left unchanged at 0.50%. We are betting on this Resistance at 1.6090-6105 to hold and in this anticipation are holding on to the Short entered at 1.6090.
If this Resistance at 1.6090-6105 were to break, look for a rise towards 1.6190-6200. This is the neckline of the S-H-S on the weekly. This Resistance is likely to hold in the medium term which should keep the S-H-S target of 1.54 in the medium term alive; else it would require a revisit.
Earlier during the day, we have been stopped out of the Short at 1.6030 entered at 1.6010 thus losing 20 pips.
GBP 10K Short at 1.6090, SL 1.6140, TP 1.5870
As soon as market trades 1.6020, trail SL to 1.6080
AUD-USD @ 0.9031/34...Support in the region 0.8900-0.8880
R: 0.9080 / 0.9130 / 0.9220
S: 0.9000 / 0.8950 / 0.8900-0.8880
Aussie is trading in a very narrow range of 0.9028-47 for some time. Resistance is seen at 0.9080, a strong break above which might target 0.9200-30 over the next few days. The broader picture continues to remain bullish.
Any sharp move on the downside is not looking likely now. However, a break below 0.9000 might pull it down towards the Support region 0.8900-0.8880
Limit Buy Order:
Buy AUD 10K @ 0.8900, SL 0.8830, TP Open
As soon as the market trades 0.8960 after entry, trial the SL up to 0.8915
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