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Friday October 9, 2009 - 10:17:36 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Norway inflation data gives Norges the excuse it needs to raise interest rate later this month

European Market Update: Norway inflation data gives Norges the excuse it needs to raise interest rate later this month
- (FI) Finland Aug Industrial Production M/M: -0.3% v 2.0%e
- (GE) German Aug Trade Balance: €8.1B v €12.0Be; Exports M/M: -1.8% v 1.9%e; Imports M/M: 1.1% v 0.9%e; Current Account: €4.6B v €8.8Be
- (GE) German Sept Final Consumer Price Index M/M: -0.4% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.3%e
- (GE) German Sept Final CPI-EU Harmonized M/M: -0.5% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.4%e
- (FR) French Aug Industrial Production M/M: 1.8% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -10.8% v -13.3%e
- (FR) French Aug Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.9% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: -11.5% v -13.9%e
- (CZ) Czech Sept CPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 00% v 0.0%e
- (DE) Danish Aug Current Account (DKK): 5.0B v 5.0Be; Trade Balance X Shipping: 4.6B v 5.0Be
- (IT) Italian Aug Industrial Production M/M: 7.0% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: -18.3% v -17.8%e; Industrial Production WDA Y/Y: -14.5 v -18.2%e
- (NO) Norwegian Sept CPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 0.9%e; Underlying CPI M/M: 1.1% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.0%e
- (NO)Norway Sept Producer Prices M/M: -6.0% v 4.9% prior; Y/Y: -6.7% v -1.2% prior
- (UK) Sep PPI Input M/M: -0.5% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: -6.5% v -6.8%e
- (UK) Sep PPI Output M/M: 0.5% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v -0.1%e
- (UK) Sept PPI Output Core M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v0.9%e
- (UK) Aug Visible Trade Balance: -£6.2B v -£6.3Be; Total Trade Balance: -£2.3B v -£2.3Be; - Trade Balance Non EU: -£3.0B v -£3.6Be

- In equities news overnight: With the return of mainland China, Asian trading returned to full strength. Chinese markets posted solid gains of 4.75-5% and led a North Asian equity rally. South and East Asian bourses traded lower led by declines in India and the surrender of some gains in Australia. Asian trading also saw the eagerly anticipated opening of Winn Macau [1128.HK] in Hong Kong trading. Winn priced at the top end of its range and put forward a strong performance, closing +6.5% but off its best levels. Investors and analysts have been eyeing the IPO as a sign of Chinese domestic consumer confidence and as a sign of the opening of Hong Kong to US listed firms. European bourses opened in negative territory on the back of weight in basic resource names and the utility sector. Markets climbed off solid French and Italian industrial and manufacturing date. The 4:00EST release of IEA 2010 oil demands, showing a fourth consecutive increase provided further rally to equities. Following this positive rotation, disappointing UK PPI data at 4:30EST turned equity trending negative for the second time, with Europe's main bourses re-entering negative territory soon after. In analyst notes, BNP Exane raised the European Insurance sector to outperform, this call has led to out performance in shares of CNP Assurances [CNP.FR] and Allianz [ALV.FR]. Past 5:30EST, markets continue to trade slightly negative with a downward trend on mixed volumes.

-In individual equities: Lloyds [LLOY.UK] Lloyds and RBS respond to press speculation regarding lending levels. RBS -Approving approx 85% of applications from businesses. Lloyd's -Continuing to focus on lending proper commercial terms. || Telefonica [TEF.SP] Expects to pay 2010 dividend of approx €1.4/share; Reiterates 2010 FY EPS target of €2.1/share. Expect revenue growth of 1-4% through 2012. || John Wood [WG.UK] Provides interim statement: Believes 2009 performance will be in line with expectations. || Standard Chartered [STAN.UK] Has filed a draft prospectus with India's Securities regulator regarding plan to issue depository receipts in the country - Indian Press. The bank may be seeking to raise INR30-50B ($627-1.1B). || Givaudan [GIVN.SZ] Reports 9 month Rev CHF3.03B v CHF3.0Be. || Actelion [ATLN.SZ] Phase III Study commences in Patients with Multiple Sclerosis, company to receive $20M milestone payment from Roche. ||

- Speakers: ECB's Trichet coometed that the Central bank's reputation was to act when deemed appropriate || China Vice President Xi Jinping commented that China and EU should strengthen relationship on macro economic views and oppose protectionism. He also noted that the economic recovery would be a long process and would maintain its 'moderately loose' monetary policy || Japan Fin Min: Fujii again spoke on the dollar and again blamed the accommodative US monetary policy as a factor for weak USD trend. He also noted that the US was paying attention to USD price movement ||

- In Currencies: The price action was somewhat subdued during the European morning as the USD maintained a consolidating tone against the major pairs aided by the comments from Fed's Bernanke during the Asian morning. Dealers noting that G7 members starting to morph into more traditional language of concern about the valuation of the USD, including Japan's Fin Min Fujii. Norwegian September core inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 2.4% and has market participants expecting that Norges Bank would be the next central bank to raise interest rates with analyst calling for a 25 bps hike later this month. The GBP was softer in the session despite the UK September PPI coming in above expectations. EUR/GBP cross-led the price action as it tested the 0.9240 level and the GBP/USD dip back below the 1.60 level was a result. Elsewher, dealers were keen to point out the parity calls for the AUD/USD pair with some nice option flows being transacted with a 1.0000 strike over the next quarter. Dealers surmised that the Norwegian Nobel committee in Oslo must be long USD after awarding US president Barack Obama the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize.

- In Fixed Income: Government bonds were hit on the European open as traders digested relatively hawkish comments from the Fed's Bernanke overnight as well as reports of emerging divisions within the FOMC in the NYT. The FT also revisited the reverse reop story, claiming that the NY Fed has begun trial runs with various primary dealers. The short end was unsurprisingly under the most pressure on both sides of the Atlantic and the two year Schatz yield moved as high as 1.33%. Yield curves are still flatter despite the long end recovering lost ground as the session wore amidst profit taking in equities. The 10 year Note is stting just abnove 3.25%, the 10y Bund, which has under-performed is yielding 3.14%, whilst 10-year Gilts are steady at 3.37%.

- In Energy: IEA Monthly Report raised its 2010 global oil demand by 350K bpd to 86.1M bpd on the back of Non-OECD demand. This is the fourth consecutive increase for 2010 global demand and comes on the back of the Oct 1st IMF upward revision of its 2010 GDP forecast to 3.1% from 2.5% prior. The IEA also again raised its 2009 global oil demand by 200K bpd to 84.6M bpd. Sept global oil supply at 84.9M bpd, up 310K bpd. It saw OPEC Sept compliance at 62% compared to 66% prior

- In commodities: Gold failed to hit fresh all-time highs for the first time in four days as it drifted lower to teste$1,045/oz

- In the papers: NY Times comments on a possible rift among Fed members regarding when to hike interest rates. The article noted recent hawkish comments out of the Fed members including Hoening, Fisher, Lacker, Plosser and Warsh. By contrast, some top Fed officials in Washington and NY have repeated emphasized that the economy is still weak. The article pondered where Fed Chairman Bernanke position stands in this debate remained unclear.

*** NOTES ***
- US President Obama awarded Nobel Peace Prize for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples
- Fed's Bernanke: bank is ready to tighten monetary policy once the economy improves
- German exports unexpectantly decline in Aug

***Looking Ahead
- 7:00 (CA) Canadian Sep Net Change in Employment: 5.0Ke v 27.1K prior, Unemployment Rate: 8.8%e v 8.7% prior
- 8:30 (US) Aug Trade Balance: -$43.0Be v -$32.0B prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian International Merchandise Trade: -C$0.9Be v -C$1.4B prior.
-10:30 (CA) Canadian Q3 Business Outlook Future Sales: 34.0e v 38.0 prior
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Aug Final Trade Balance: No estimate versus -835M prior

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