It was a volatile week for the U.S. Dollar. However, a
strong comeback on Friday allowed the Dollar to finish lower for the week, but
well off of its lowest level.
For the week, the EUR USD managed to finish higher but off
its high for the year at 1.4843.The
European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged and predicted a rocky
The GBP USD finished lower for the week. Comments from
Bernanke are making it look like the U.S.
economy will recover well ahead of the U.K. economy.The Bank of England left interest rates
unchanged at 0.50%.In addition, the BoE
decided to maintain its asset-buyback program.The chart indicates that 1.5272 is the next major downside target.
The USD JPY had a volatile week.The Dollar initially weakened against the Yen
as it looked as if U.S.
interest rates would continue to fall.Traders drove this currency pair through the recent bottom but above the
low for the year at 87.11.Traders were
initially worried the Bank of Japan would intervene at the low levels, but that
never happened.Comments from Fed
Chairman Bernanke regarding a possible hike in U.S.
interest rates have led traders to believe that the U.S. economy will recover faster
than the Japanese economy and that the Yen would once again become the carry
currency of choice.
The USD CAD closed sharply lower.Demand for higher risk assets such as
equities and crude oil triggered the initial weakness, but it was a bullish
Canadian unemployment report which eventually fueled the acceleration to the
downside.A new swing top has been
formed on the weekly chart at 1.099.The
weekly chart also indicates that 1.0297 is the next downside target.
Talk of a possible hike in U.S. interest rates helped weaken
the AUD USD and NZD USD on Friday.These
moves were most likely position paring after a strong rally this week and not a
sign of a change in trend.Australian
Dollar traders will support this currency on any weakness because of the strong
possibility of another rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia in November.The next rally could be tentative for the New
Zealand Dollar because of hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.The RBNZ is on record voicing its concerns
about the value of the Kiwi and its possible negative effects on the economy‚Äôs
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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