Monday October 12, 2009 - 03:41:26 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 12-Oct-2009 - 0338 GMT
The Dow (9864.94) had risen 4% last week after two weeks of consecutive decline. It faces Resistance near 10100 for the week and may rise during the week after some correction towards 9700.
The Asian indices too have risen last week. The Nikkei was up 3%, Shanghai which had traded only on Friday last week rose 4.75%. Today, most of the Asian equities are trading higher to flattish. The Sensex (16642.66) seems to be decoupling from the rest of the global equities. The week before last, most of the global equities closed lower while the Sensex closed higher. The last week ending 9th Oct, the Sensex corrected nearly 3% while most of the global equities closed surged between 2-5%. For this week, it seems to have found Support near 16600 and till this Support holds, expect it to surge higher towards 17400 over the course of the week. A break of this Support may see the index consolidate near 16000.
Japan, the USA and Canada are on a holiday today.
Crude (72.14) has risen on Friday as the International Energy Agency increased the global oil demand forecast for 2010 and rest of 2009. It is now trading above 72. As metnioned earlier Resistance is seen at 72.50 a break above which might see a rise towards 75 in the coming days. On the downside Support is seen in the region 70-68.
Gold (1048.80) fell sharply on Friday from a high of 1056.70 and is now trading just below 1050. Resistance is seen in the region 1055-60, a strong break above which might target 1150-1200 in the coming days/weeks. On the downside Support is seen in the region 1010-990.
The Euro (1.4705) is continuing to trade lower and might test the Support region 1.4650-30. Dollar-Yen (90.08) has risen from Friday's low of 88.64 and might test the Resistance at 90.50 if it continues to trade higher. Euro-Yen (132.47) Cross is also trading higher and might see a rise towards 133.50-80 today if the current strength on its upmove continues. Support is seen at 131.50.
The Pound (1.5829) has fallen sharply and the overall sentiment continues to remain bearish. Dollar-Swiss (1.0327) is ranged between 1.0220 and 1.0360 for the last few days. Resistance is seen at 1.0400 and the overall picture continue to remain bearish. The Aussie (0.9028) remains overall strong, although its trading slightly lower than last week's high of 0.9090.
The Korean-Won (1164) is continuing to remain strong. Dollar-Rupee has closed at 46.40/41 on Friday.
3M USD LIBOR has remained unchanged at 0.28% and seems to have found a floor for itself. The Treasuries have surged 13 bps today for maturities over 5Y. The 10Y yield was quoting near 3.38% while the 30Y yield near 4.22%.
UK Trade Balance
...Actual $ -6.2 Bln...Previous $ -6.4 Bln
Aug CA Labour Force
...Actual 30.6K...Previous 27.1K
US Aug Trade Balance
...Actual $ -30.7 Bln...Previous $ -31.9 Bln
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