Upside momentum slowed down in the NZD USD today as bullish
traders took a breather ahead of tonightâ€™s New Zealand Retail Sales
Report.Traders are looking for a 0.5%
rise in retail sales in September, but are being cautious because of a negative
surprise in last monthâ€™s report.The
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
expressed concern last week about the value of the New Zealand Dollar.They fear the rapid rise in the Kiwi may
actually be detrimental to the economic recovery in New Zealand if it begins to hurt
export sales.This is another reason why
gains were limited today.
The AUD USD, on the other hand, posted a strong gain on
Monday.Demand for higher yields helped
drive up the Aussie although gains were probably limited by todayâ€™s low
volume.Traders are buying the Aussie in
anticipation of another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia at
its next meeting on November 3.
Demand for higher risk assets also supported a rally today
in the EUR USD. Look for this trend to
continue as long as U.S.
interest rates remain relatively lower to the Euro Zoneâ€™s rates.Traders are also becoming more confident that
the Euro Zone economy will strengthen at a faster pace than the U.S.
economy.Traders have to be careful that
the Euro doesnâ€™t spike higher because the European Central Bank is becoming
concerned about the rapid rise in the currency and its possible negative
effects on exports.Bullish traders
should begin to watch for a â€śverbal interventionâ€ť if prices rise too much or
get too volatile.
Economic pressures continued to weigh on the GBP USD.Traders have become convinced that the U.K. economy is still struggling and likely to
lag the U.S.
in the economic recovery process.Investors are looking for interest rates to continue to remain low.In addition, expect the Bank of England to
continue to apply its quantitative easing program.
The USD JPY posted a slight gain, highlighted by a two-sided
trade.The Dollar started out strong
versus the Yen after Japanese officials warned against shorting the Dollar at
current levels.Traders seem to be
concerned that the Bank of Japan will take action to prop up the value of the
Dollar if the Yen continues to strengthen and are being tentative about
pressing the Dollar lower on weakness.This
usually means bullish Yen traders will more likely look to buy dips rather than
strength.The trend is down in the USD
JPY, but traders seem to be reluctant to push it lower on weakness.Be careful not to get trapped selling into
Last weekâ€™s bullish Canadian unemployment report continued
to exert its influence on the USD CAD today.Additional downside pressure was applied by demand for higher risk
assets.Higher equity prices and strong
crude oil provided additional support to the Canadian Dollar.Technically, the USD CAD is getting close to
oversold.The fundamentals, however,
support lower prices.If the Canadian
Dollar moves up too far, too fast or gets too volatile, then look for the Bank
of Canada to attempt to limit gains with a â€śverbal intervention.â€ť
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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