Tuesday October 13, 2009 - 13:11:04 GMT
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Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
South of the Border and South of the X-Axis
German Investor Confidence Unexpectedly Drops as Economy Remains `Fragile' (Bloomberg)
U.K. Inflation Rate Declines More Than Forecast to Five-Year Low of 1.1% (Bloomberg)
Czechs try to resolve Lisbon impasse (Financial Times)
â€śThe Belief that man is outfitted with an immortal soul, differing altogether from the engines which operate the lower animals, is ridiculously unjust to them. The difference between the smartest dog and the stupidest manâ€”say a Tennessee Holy Rollerâ€”is really very small, and the difference between the decentest dog and the worst man is all in favor of the dog.â€ť
FX Trading â€“ Starting to Heat Up South of the Border
Yesterday, Mexican industrial production slid by 7.3% year-over-year in August, worse than the expect 6.2% decline and the previous drop of 6.5%. And in a sign that companies arenâ€™t yet ready to apply capital in this economy, gross fixed investment plunged by more than 14% in July when estimates were calling for a drop of 11-12%.
Friday, Mexicoâ€™s central bank wraps up a meeting on monetary policy. Theyâ€™re expected to sit tight with rates at 4.5%. Whatâ€™s on their minds?
First, the continued poor economic data isnâ€™t sitting well. Keep in mind 80% of their exports are sent to the United States. And while there may be signs of recovery in the US, America is expected to lag the rest of the world and the US consumer is still retrenching. The most recent monthly data shows Mexican imports to the US down nearly 30% year-over-year.
On top of that, crude oil revenues are down. And itâ€™s no secret that Mexico makes a living on production and distribution of crude. Relatively low prices and lackluster demand is an awfully discouraging combo. Mexican government, like many governments around the world, is left scurrying around to compensate for lost revenues.
Money sent back into Mexico from Mexicans working in the US or abroad continue to show notable year-over-year declines.
Itâ€™s obvious looking at these charts that thereâ€™s been a major setback to Mexicoâ€™s economy in the wake of global credit crisis. [Charts not available in text format.]
That is why there are important reforms being weighed by Mexicoâ€™s politicians. The lower house is currently chewing on a proposal that would institute a new 2% sales tax on pretty much everything. Time is winding down but it is expected some alternate proposals based instead on spending cuts will surface before next weekâ€™s deadline to make a decision and pass it on to the Senate.
Are these proposals, if any make it through, going to save Mexicoâ€™s economy? Itâ€™s not likely. But what is being hoped for is that taking some type of action can postpone potentially worse conditions long enough for the global economy and business as usual to get back on its feet.
As for the peso, at least it hasnâ€™t been the self-proclaimed â€śhindrance on the economyâ€ť as rising currencies of other nations have become. Nope â€“ the Mexican peso has been pretty much stuck trading sideways for the last couple months, rising and falling from support and resistance.
Itâ€™s nearing support again. And if itâ€™s judged on its fundamental backdrop then the likely move for USDMXN is for the peso to weaken and this pair to bounce back up towards resistance.
But, if the US dollar falls into crisis-mode (or is at least viewed that way by traders) then the peso could find default strength and this pair could blow through support fairly easily. If it does, and the anti-dollar move is sustained then the pent-up momentum in USDMXN could send the pair lower in a hurry.
John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital LLC
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