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Wednesday October 14, 2009 - 10:05:39 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: General risk appetite continues to fuel equities; EUR/USD inching towards the key 1.50 level

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 5:51:19 AM

 European Market Update: General risk appetite continues to fuel equities; EUR/USD inching towards the key 1.50 level


- (CH) China End-Sept Foreign Reserves: $2.27T v $2.13T prior
- (CH) China Sept New loans (CNY) 516.7B v 410.4B prior month
- (FI) Finland Sept CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -1.0% v -1.1%e
- (HU) Hungary Aug Final Industrial Output M/M: -0.5% v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: -19.8% v -19.9% prior
- (CZ) Czech Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: -3.5% v -3.1%e
- (SP) Spanish Sept CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.0% v -1.0%e
- (SP) Spain Sept CPI Core M/M: -0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.3%e
- (SP) Spanish Sept CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.0% v -1.0%e
- (SW) Swedish Sept Average House Prices (SEK): 1.72 v 1.97M prior
- (UK) AUG ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.9% v 8.0%e
- (UK) Sept Claimant Count Rate: 5.0% v 5.1%e; Jobless Claims Change: 20.8K v 24.5Ke
- (UK) Aug Average Earnings inc Bonus 3m/Y: 1.6% v 1.4%e; ex Bonus: 1.9% v 1.9%e
- (UK) Aug Manufacturing Unit Wage Cost: 3.5% v 3.9% prior
- (IC) Iceland Q3 Unemployment Rate: 6.0% v 9.1% prior
- (EU) Euro-zone Aug Industrial Production M/M: 0.9% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: -15.4% v -15.5%e
- (GR) Greek Jul Unemployment rate: 9.6% v 8.5%e
- (SA) South African Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: -7.0% v -3.1%e

- In equities news overnight: European equity markets have been significantly bid throughout the European morning in connection new all time highs in gold and 2009 calendar year highs in crude. Asian equity markets ex-Japan traded higher following a muted BOJ rate decision holding interest rates 0.10% as expected. Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] released in the Asian trading session its Q3 operations review raising its 2009 iron ore output target to 210-215M tons. Rio Tinto also stated that it has begun to see cautious, but early signs of recovery in its key markets. This commentary has led to strong out performance in the basic resources and mining sector throughout the European morning. Following strong earnings out of Intel [INTC], Dutch based DRAM and chip maker ASML [ASML.NV] provided similarly strong results, adding further lightness to the broader tech sector. Following the strong market open, equities traded flat in a tight range through 4:30EST. UK data at 4:30EST showing a slightly better than expected employment picture was joined by the unexpected 4:48EST release of strong prelim figures out of chemical giant BASF [BAS.GE]. BASF Q3 figures pushed markets out of their trading ranges with equities moving sharply higher. At this point, the DAX30 again printed new 2009 calendar highs. Trading volumes have remained strong throughout the session on broad equity interest.

-In individual equities: BASF BAS.GE: Reports prelim Q3 EBIT (ex items) €1.25B v €970Me, Rev €12.8B v €12.4Be. Markets have stabilized at lower levels. || ASML ASML.NV: Reports Q3 Net €20M v €10Me, Rev €555M v €525Me. Guides Q4 Rev €550M v €534Me. || Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] Provides Q3 Operations Review: Sees early signs of recovery in key markets; Guides 210-215M tons in 2009 iron ore output (prior 200M tons). || Diageo [DGE.UK] Provides interim management statement: three month net sales down 6% y/y (-3%e); consumer trends remain broadly unchanged. || Burberry [BRBY.UK] Reports H1 Rev £572M v £539M y/y. || BAE Systems [BA.UK] Provides Interim Management Statement: Trading for the period has been consistent with management's expectations. || Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] Confirms press speculation: To pay back €3B in state aid in full; Repayment to be made on Oct 27. ||

- Speakers: BoJ's Shirakwa: Will maintain accommodative monetary stance. Stated that ending temporary corporate bond purchases did not mean beginnings of exit strategy . He noted that he believed that exit strategy refered to low interest rate policy and the priority was to support Japanese economy at this time with low interest rates and liquidity measures. There were signs that the economic recovery was spreading inside Japan and that the need for corporate debt purchases was receding. Employment situation to remain severe but that the decline in annual CPI likely to peak later this month. Lastly he noted that small firms were still having difficulty gaining access to finance || ECB's Quaden commented that the recession in Europe was technically over, but any recovery would be modest and fragile. He noted that future growth might be weaker than prior recoveries but more stable || ECB's Nowotny commented that he expectd positive GDP growth in H2 but that it was too early to discuss exit strategies nor give the "all clear" signal. He did state that ECB staff forecasts were realistic and did not need revisions. Lastly he reiterated the view that there were no inflation risks seen in medium term || German DIHK institute revised its German GDP forecasts for 2009 to -4.8% v -6.0% prior view. It forecasted 2010 GDP growth at +2.0%. Recovery seen as partially attributed to government stimulus but most recent data showed business sentiment rising at fastest pace in 6-years

- In Currencies: Overall the USD index continues to hit fresh 14-month lows against the Euro and Swiss currencies as spot gold hit another fresh all-time high at $1,070/oz. Risk appetitive was also weighing upon the dollar sentiment following the earnings out of Intel and Chinese trade data earlier today. JPY was softer against the majors following comments from BOJ's Shirakawa that any ending of debt buying did not imply an exit strategy and it would maintain a very low policy rate to support the economy.

- The EUR/USD hovered around the 1.4900 where an alleged option barrier provided initial resistance throughout the morning but the barrier eventually was 'knocked out'. Dealers note that it seem that the 1.50 level was in sight at this time but additional option barriers are lurking at that key psychological level.

- In Fixed Income: Government bonds have suffered under the weight of supply and snowballing risk appetite this morning in Europe. Germany reopened its 2-year Schatz to the tune of €3.5B with relatively strong bidding, Italy allotted €6.5B in three BTP' taps - right at the top end of expectations, Portugal sold €750M in 2037 bonds in a strong auction, whilst the UK sold £3.5B in 2020's Gilts at just 0.3bps though the screens. Yields are moving higher in all major markets , with the 10-year Bund above 3.20%, the 10-year Gilt above 3.45% and the 10-year Note above 3.35% in current trade.

- In Energy: IEA's Tanaka commented that the rapid price climbs in crude were a concern while the demand outlook was "not promising" ||NY Times article noted that Saudi Arabia was trying to get other oil-producing countries to support a plan to have wealthy countries pay compensation to oil producers in exchange for reducing their oil consumption. Saudi Arabia had expressed support for this plan for years in earlier climate-treaty negotiations.

- In commodities: Spot gold hits fresh all-time highs at $1,070 || Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] Provided Q3 Operations Review and noted early signs of recovery in key markets. Rio guided 2009 iron ore output between 210-215M tons versus a prior view of 200M tons. || India Sept Steel production came in at 4.7M tons unchanged from year ago level of 4.7M.

*** NOTES ***
- Intel earnings results prompt another round of risk appetite. European has positive comments from BASF and ASML
- ECB's Noyer: Good idea to have balance in multi-currency global system; SDRs are not an instrument to replace USD. Chinese Yuan can be reserve only once it is convertible; emerging economies should gradually shift toward the Euro for trade.
- New record high in gold at $1,070/oz.
- Japan MoF Minezaki: USD weakness likely to persist but had no comment on levels. He did note that one should not intervene just because JPY currency appreciates.
- China Sep trade surplus $12.9B v $17.0Be. Both imports and exports down compared to year-ago levels but 'beat' expectations

***Looking Ahead
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 9th: No estimates v 16.4% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Polish Sept CPI M/M: 0.2%e v -0.4% prior, Y/Y: 3.5%e v 3.7% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Aug New Motor Vehicle Sales: 0.0%e v 5.3% prior
- 8:30 (US) Sept Import Price index M/M: 0.2%e v 2.0% prior, Y/Y: -11.4%e v -15.0% prior
- 8:30 (US) Sept Advance Retail Sales: -2.1%e v 2.7% prior, Less Autos: 0.2%e v 1.1% prior, Ex auto & Gas: 0.2%e v 0.6% prior
- 9:15 (EU) ECB's Bini Smaghi
- 10:00 (US) Aug Business inventories: -1.0%e v -1.0% prior
- 11:30 (MX) Mexico to sell 1-year, 3-year and 5-year bonds
- 14:00 (US) FOMC Minutes from Sept 23rd meeting
- 1630 (US) API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories


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