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Thursday October 15, 2009 - 03:38:15 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 15-Oct-2009 - 0335 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The Dow (10015.86) closed above 10000 for 1st time in over a year. 10000 was seen as a huge psychological barrier to cross. It rose 1.47% on Intel's earnings forecast and better than expected retail sales numbers. The equity markets continue to perform well despite concerns over rising unemployment, weak consumer spending and slump in housing market which suggests there's an overall confidence in the market that the economic recovery is not too far off.

The Asian stocks have surged on US cues and general euphoria over the Dow closing above 10000 after a year. Nikkei (10272.62) is up 2.11%, Shanghai (2989.35) is up 0.63% and Hang Seng is up 1.53%. The Sensex (17231.11) rose over 1% yesterday and may continue with the uptrend today as well on global cues. There's Resistance near 17400 which is likely to be tested.

COMMODITIES
Crude (75.85) closed above 75 for the first time in a year yesterday. The weaker dollar, strong global equities and the optimism about the global economic recovery that would lead to a higher energy demand is keeping the Commodity strong. Technically speaking, Curde is now trading near the significant Resistances at 76 and 76.78 [the 38.2% retracement level of the fall from 141.27 (11-Jul-08) to 33.22 (15-Jan-09) mentioned earlier]. We might expect a pull back from these Resistance levels. However, the overall outlook remains bullish and we might see a rise towards 85-90 in the coming weeks/months. The US Crude inventory data is due today.

Gold (1064.40) has fallen from yesterday's high of 1072. Though the dollar continued to weaken, significant rise in the Commodity was not seen yesterday which is showing a divergence. However, the broad picture continues to remain bullish for a target of 1150-1200 over the next few weeks with strong Support in the region 1060-1040.


CURRENCIES
Everybody seems to be getting onto the Sell-Dollar trade now, which has some more room to go. Star performer Aussie (0.9214) has room to move up to 0.95. The Euro (1.4955) is breaking earlier resistance at 1.4925 and is within kissing distance of the big figure of 1.50. Dollar-Swiss (1.0130) has fallen below the previous low of 1.0185 and should be on its way to test "Parity" either this week or the next.

The fall in Dollar-Yen (89.40) has slowed down over the last couple of days, the pair having seen a good bounce from 88.82 yesterday. The overall downtrend remains intact, though. The Euro-Yen Cross (133.65) has been moving up over the last few days and is testing an important Resistance at 133.90. Break thereof could be very bullish.

Surprising, but the weakness in the Dollar seems to be so deep-rooted now that the Pound (1.6053) has also risen over the last 3 days, from a low of 1.5710 on Tuesday.

The Asian currencies have strengthened quite a bit. The Sing Dollar trades near 1.3860 and the Korean won near 1158.40. Dollar-Rupee had closed lower near 46.13 yesterday and is likely to fall below 46.00 today. The 1-mth NDF trades near 45.88.


INTEREST RATES
3M USD LIBOR was left unchanged at 0.28%. The yields on US Treasuries rose between 5-8 bps for longer term maturities. The 10Y yields shot up 8 bps to 3.42% and the 30Y bond yields were quoted at 4.28% up 8 bps.

DATA TODAY
09:00 GMT EU Sep CPI (YoY)
...Expected 1.2%...Previous 1.3%

12:30 GMT US Sep Core CPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.1%...Previous 0.1%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/uscpi.shtml

14:00 GMT Aug US Philifed Index
......Expected 12.4...Previous 14.1


DATA YESTERDAY
BOJ Meeting
...Actual 0.10%...Previous 0.10%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/jpboj.shtml

EU Sep IND Prodn (MoM)
...Actual 0.9%...Previous 0.2%

US Sep Retail Sales
...Actual -1.5%...Previous 2.2%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usretail.shtml

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 16 Oct
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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