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Forex Blog - European Morning Update: Xstrata abandons bid for Anglo American; Key US financials earnings eyed

Thursday, October 15, 2009 5:51:28 AM

 European Morning Update: Xstrata abandons bid for Anglo American; Key US financials earnings eyed


- (RU) Russia Gold & Forx Reserves w/e Oct 9th: $418.5B v $411.5B prior
- (FI) Finland Aug Final Retail Sales -3.8% v -3.9% prior
- (CZ) Czech Aug Import Price Index Y/Y: -7.2% v -4.4% prior
- (TU) Turkish July Unemployment Rate: 12.8% v 12.9%e
- (FI) Finland Aug Current Account: -€60M v €250Me
- (SP) Spain Q3 House Price Index Q/Q: -0.9% v -1.9% prior; Y/Y: -7.8% v -8.2% prior
- (NV) Netherlands Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: -7.7% v -4.0%e
- (NO) Norway Sept Trade Balance (SEK): v 24.9B prior
- (IT) Italian Sep Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.7% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.3%e
- (IT) Italian Sep Final CPI (NIC Incl Tobacco) M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.2%e
- (EU) ECB Monthly Report: Mirrors recent ECB press conference; Interest rate are appropriate
- (IT) Bank of Italy Quarterly Economic Bulletin: Forecasts Q3 GDP +1.0 q/q
- (EU) Euro-zone Sept CPI M/M; 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Core Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
- (SZ) Swiss Oct ZEW Expectations Survey: 65.0 v 58.0 prior
- (RU) Russia Sept Industrial Production M/M: 5.1% v 2.1%e; Y/Y: -9.5% v -12.1%e

- In equities news overnight: European markets have traded mixed through European morning despite a strong Asian trading session and the psychological breach of 10K in NY yesterday. Equity sentiment seems to be paring back the marked excitement that saw new 2009 index highs on both Monday and then again on Tuesday. This positioning, however, takes into account expected door buster earnings seen out of Goldman Sachs [GS] expected at 8:00EST along with a plethora of US data seen in the NY morning. In equity flows, Xstrata [XTA.UK] has walked away from Anglo [AAL.UK] and
Rio [RIO.UK] has scaled back its 'marketing' campaign with BHP [BHP.AU]. ING [INGA.NV] finalized one of its asset sales, selling its Asian private banking assets to OCBC for $1.5B in cash. Earnings season has continued its outperforming trend with Roche [ROG.SZ] and Suedzucker [SZU.GE] beating expectations and providing solid upside guidance. In sector moves, utilities and basic materials have broadly weighed the downside while tech, healthcare and financials have traded slightly positive. Trading volumes have remained light as equities bounced above and below the unchanged level ahead of earnings and data.

-In individual equities: Roche [ROG.SZ] Reports Q3 Rev CHF12.39B v CHF12.18Be; 9 month Rev CHF36.4B v CHF36.2Be, raises outlook/guidance. FY09 Tamiflu sales seen at CHF2.7B v CHF2.0B prior. || Anglo American [AAL.UK] Xstrata confirms it has no intention to make bid for company. || ING [INGA.NV] Confirms intention to sell Asian private banking assets to OCBC for $1.46B; expects net profit from sale of €300M. || Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] Will not proceed on marketing iron ore joint venture with BHP, companies will market production separately, companies to finalize details on schedule. || SABMiller [SAB.UK] Provides trading update; H1 lager volume -1% y/y. || GKN [GKN.UK] Provides interim management statement: 3-month rev £1.1B -3% y/y. Outlook: Considerable uncertainty remains in a number GKN's end markets. || Total [FP.FR] Reports Q3 European refining margin $6.6/metric ton v $45/metric ton y/y (v $12.4/metric ton m/m). Q3 average gas sale price $65.1. || Suedzucker [SZU.GE] Reports Q2 Net €55.1M v €55Me, Rev €1.54B v €1.5Be; Have seen rising operate profit levels. Continues to see FY09/10 Op profit at €400M v €412Me, Rev at least €5.9B v €5.9Be. || ABI [ABI.BE] Confirms to sell Central European operations to CVC for $2.3B ( in line with press speculation). || H&M [HMB.SW] Reports Sept SSS -8% v -7%e. Sept total sales +1.0% v +4.3%e. ||

- Speakers: Japan's Fin Min Fujii stated that he never committed to "strong yen" or "weaker yen" as a positive for the Japanese economy. - Says that the political task was to stabilize the value of the yen based on the strength of the economy. He did acknowledge that his remarks have caused a lot of misunderstanding. -Believes that competitive devaluations are not good and these views were expressed at G7 and G20 || Bank of Italy Quarterly Economic Bulletin forecasted Q3 GDP up around 1.0% q/q but did note that risks remained from decline in private demand as public spending tapered off || ECB Monthly report echoed the main comments from the Oct 8th Trichet press conference with the current interest rate level of 1.0% as appropriate and little risk of deflation. || Russian Econ Min sees Oct inflation at 0.2-0.3% m/m compared to 0.0% in Sept || ECB's Sramko reiterated the ECB viewpoint that deflation risk was lower in Q3 compared to prior quarter, and that inflationary threats were not a concern. He did note that exit strategies from special measures did not pose any inflationary risks although commodity prices did pose a risk || German Institutes raised German GDP view but noted that the economy faced a sluggish recovery with many headwinds including a possible credit crunch. It raised 2009 GDP view to -5.0% from -6.0% prior; with Q3 at 0.7% and Q4 at +0.2%. It 2010 GDP view now seen at +1.2% from -0.5% prior ||

- In Currencies: The European morning saw a mix dollar price action against the European pairs. The EUR/USD retraced from fresh 14-month highs registered during
Asia of 1.4970 but little changed from its opening levels seen in Tokyo. Some weight surfaced in the metals after their recent surge. The GBP surged against the majors in a technical rebound with the EUR/GBP providing the necessary catalyst once it broke below the 0.9290 level. GBP/USD surged to test above its 30-day moving avg of 1.6185, up over 200 pips from the Asian open.

- The JPY weakened against the majors with GBP/JPY leading the charge up almost 3 big figures at 146.00 level. EUR/JPY broke above a former 2-month down trend line at 1.3380 and was at 134.20 ahead of the NY morning. USD/JPY testing its 2-month downtrend line at the 90.10 area.

- Dealers beginning to focus on the upcoming Euro-Zone finance ministers meeting (EcoFin) next Monday with the main topic likely to be currencies. The 1.50 level in the EUR/USD has been previously cited by German companies as a 'threshold of pain'

- In Fixed Income: European debt markets have had little time to pause and take stock ahead of another round of key financial earnings, with an abundance of supply and economic data to wade though this morning. There were no surprises from either the ECB monthly report or Sept CPI's and both Bund and Gilt markets have been subject to bear steepening. The 10year Bund yield is sitting right near a confluence of its 50 and 200 day moving averages at 3.275% In a case of two Europe' s France's sale of €8B in 2 and 5year BTAN's and old OAT's attracted good bidding, whilst the Spanish taxpayer paid a hefty premium over Bunds in order to raise €3.8B. European sovereign debt spreads are mixed following the supply with
Italy the best performer. Treasuries continue to be offered across the curve, and the 10year Note yield is up +2bps to 3,43% in current trading, with 3.465% the next likely stop on the way to 3.50%.

- In Energy: Total [FP.FR] FP.FR: Reported its Q3 European refining margin at $6.6/metric ton compared to year-ago levels of $45/metric ton y/y

- In commodities: Chinese Steel Output in Sept was 46.7M tons, below all time highs of 52.3M tons in Aug CISA || China's NDRC commented that steel demand surge was temporary as there was still overcapacity within the industry

*** NOTES ***
- RBA: Period of economic weakness has past
- Xstrata [XTA.UK]confirmed it has no intention to make bid for Anglo American [AAL.UK]; Deal would have been around $50B
- Positive whisper numbers for Goldman Sachs earnings circulating following the JPM results yesterday

***Looking Ahead: Key earnings for US financials continue. GS and Citi this morning
- No set time (RU) Russia Sept Producer Prices M/M: % v 1.0%e; Y/Y: % v -5.7%e
- 7:25 (EU) ECB's Trichet: addressing lesson learned from the crisis
- 7:30 (CL) Chile Sept Copper exports: No estimates versus $2.2B prior
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Aug Retail Sales M/M: 0.8%e v 0.5% prior, Y/Y: 5.3%e v 5.9% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Aug Manufacturing Sales M/M: -1.6%e v 5.5% prior
- 8:30 (US) Sept Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.4% prior, Y/Y: -1.4%e v -1.5% prior,
- 8:30 (US) Sept CPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior, Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.4% prior; Core Index: No estimate versus 219.692 prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Oct 10th: 520Ke v 521K prior; Continuing Claims: 6.000Me v 6.040M prior
- 8:30 (US) Oct Empire Manufacturing: 17.25Ke v 18.88 prior
- 9:00 (PD) Polish Sept Budget Level: No estimate versus -600.9M prior
- 9:45 (US) Fed's Bullard
-10:00 (US) Oct Philly Fed: 12.0e v 14.1 prior
- 10:30 (US) Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
- 11:30 (IS) Israel Sept Consumer Prices M/M: 0.0%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.1% expected versus 3.1% prior
-12:00 (TU) Turkish Central Bank Base Rate Decision: Consensus expectations is for a 50bps rate cut to 6.75% from the current rate of 7.25%
- (US) Sept Monthly Budget Statement: -$34.0B expected versus +$45.7B prior


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