Friday October 16, 2009 - 03:42:05 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 16-Oct-2009 - 0338 GMT
The US equities traded higher yesterday on still better corporate earnings. The Dow (10062.94) and the Nasdaq (2173.29) rose 0.47% and 0.05% respectively.
The Asian equities are mixed. While Nikkei (10257.62) and Hang Seng (22085.34) are up 0.19% and 0.46% respectively, the Shanghai (2961.83) and All Ordinaries (4850.90) are down 0.58% and 0.12% respectively. The Sensex (17195.20) closed lower after recording a high of 17350.39 as the Resistance at 17400 that we have been mentioning for this week has held. The target of 20000 over the next few months looks possible.
Crude (78.04) has risen sharply breaking above the significant Resistances at 76 and 76.78 [the 38.2% retracement level of the fall from 141.27 (11-Jul-08) to 33.22 (15-Jan-09)] mentioned earlier following the data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) which showed an unexpected drop in the gasoline inventories and less than expected increase in Crude inventories. As mentioned earlier the overall outlook is bullish and we look for a rise towards 85-90 in the coming weeks.
Gold (1054.30) fell sharply yesterday on profit taking and is now trading in the Support region 1060-40 mentioned earlier. If the current downmove continues, a break below 1040 might pull it down towards 1020. However, the bigger picture continues to remain bullish and we might expect the uptrend to continue after some consolidation/profit taking.
The Euro (1.4943) and Aussie (0.9247) are continuing to remain strong and are keeping up their uptrend intact. Dollar-Yen has risen sharply and if the current strength on its upmove continues, a break above 91 might see 92 on the upside today.
The Euro-Yen (135.45) Cross has also risen following the rise in Euro and Dollar-Yen. Resistance is seen at 136, a break above which might take it up towards 137.50-138.00. Swiss (1.0148) is continuing to remain bearish with strong Resistance in the region 1.0200-20. The Pound (1.6378) is trading strong and a break above 1.6450 might reverse the current down trend.
The Korean-Won trades near 1157 and Dollar-Rupee NDF, 1-week is at 46.02/07 and 1-month is at 45.98/46.05
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.28%. The yields on US Treasuries continued to rise today as well despite Fed's intentions of keeping yields low. For maturities 2Y+, the yields rose 4-6 bps.
In India, the MIBOR rates after having fallen sharply since October last year has been stabilising over the last 6 months. It was 13% for 3M tenor last year in October and is now at a little over 4.5%. To see the chart of MIBOR, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/mibor.shtml#mibor
09:00 GMT EU Trade Bal
...Expected 7.9 Bln...Previous 6.8 Bln
11:00 GMT CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
13:00 GMT US Sep TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
...Expected $ 10.9 Bln...Previous $ 15.3 Bln
13:15 GMT US Sep Industrial Production
...Expected 0.1%...Previous 0.8%
13:15 GMT US Sep Capacity Utilization
...Expected 69.8%...Previous 69.6%
EU Sep CPI (YoY)
...Expected 1.2%...Actual 1.2%
US Sep Core CPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.1%...Actual 0.2%
Aug US Philifed Index
...Expected 12.4...Actual 11.5
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