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Saturday October 17, 2009 - 16:18:37 GMT
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GVI Forex-Week ahead Outlook and End of Week Post-mortem October 17, 2009

Week ahead Outlook and End of Week Post-Mortem

The markets went on an interesting journey in the latest week, and its trek will be extended into the week ahead. Last week started with a nervous focus on the start of the U.S. earnings session at the start of the period. Initial earnings reports for the financials were better than expected and the momentum that such news generated managed to push the DJIA back through the psychological 10,000 line. Once achieved, it seemed that some second thoughts about the ability of future corporate earnings to justify current equity valuations were seeping in. Why does this matter to forex traders? Most of the major USD currency pair valuations are tightly correlated to key equity indices. If equity indices fall, the value of foreign currencies against the USD will fall as well.

Keep in mind that the value of all financial instruments, including derivatives, is driven by the cost and availability of financing. At the moment, virtually every central bank in the world, with the possible exception of the Reserve Bank of Australia, continues to flood the markets with emergency amounts of liquidity to prop up asset prices. Among those asset prices being propped up include: equities, bonds, gold, oil etc. That means that equity prices could remain higher for longer that they otherwise might have. Keep an eye on the central banks that are starting to move in the direction of removing emergency liquidity injections.

The other developing issue to follow is the weak USD policy (benign neglect) of the Obama administration. They want a weak USD to promote the export sector. This policy has been engendering a lot of angst overseas. It could start to come to a head Monday with European Finance Ministers (EcoFin) meeting to discuss the weak USD and undervalued CNY, which has been virtually fixed to the USD for about a year of USD weakness. It is hard to see what they can do about it, but they are likely to make their displeasure known to the marketplace and thus could create some price volatility. In this regard, the EURUSD 1.50 remains a juicy psychological target for short-term traders looking to run stops and options barriers.

from... GVI Forex Discussion Points Friday Morning PM

"We hear now that the equity markets have started to worry about whether recent earnings gains are sustainable and how much higher stock prices can go. This perspective does not take into account the excess liquidity in the system that is looking for a home. On the other hand, building a recovery on a stock bubble probably is not a good idea. Keep in mind that stock prices can advance a lot further than the fundamentals might justify. It is critical to realize that equities and bonds are also carry trades. Headline earnings come today from GE and BAC. DOW 10,000 remains the focus..."

from...GVI Forex Discussion Points... Thursday PM

Markets were mildly disappointed by the headline earnings data from the big financials on Thursday after they did not exceed heightened market expectations following the JPM data on Wednesday. The immediate equity focus is now on dow 10,000. Not that it is more than just another number, but many are waiting to see if prices settle above or below that benchmark. It is critical to realize that equities and bonds are also carry trades. This is the same as gold, oil and certain currencies. Central Banks have flooded the markets with cash and it has to find a home.

from...GVI Forex Discussion Points... Thursday AM

"Equity markets got their dow 10,000 target surprisingly easily yesterday. Some are pointing to cheap money as a key source of support. When you get down to it, equities and bonds are also carry trades, same for gold and oil. GS and Citi earnings will be closely followed today. There are already positive whisper numbers for GS after the JPM surprise yesterday. Higher equities gave the EURUSD pair some support but it may be close to near-term ceiling. The E-Z finance ministers meeting (EcoFin) Monday is a worry. The main topic is said to be forex and the weakness of the USD and CNY. The U.S. administration favors a weak USD to push exports. There also is talk of option barriers at the EURUSD 1.50 level..."

from... GVI Forex Discussion Points Wednesday Evening

"JPM earnings Wednesday were much better than expected and followed up on a strong INTL report Tuesday. This cast the spotlight on stock indices and the focus turned to the DJIA as it tested the 10,000 line. Higher equities indirectly gave the EURUSD pair a lift. However, the EURUSD was contained by word of an E-Z finance ministers meeting (EcoFin) on Monday. Main topics were said to be the weakness of the USD and CNY. The key issue is that the U.S. administration wants a weak USD to push exports. U.K. jobs data were better than expected..."

from... GVI Forex Discussion Points Wednesday Morning

"INTL earnings Tuesday afternoon better than expected and its positive outlook have given the tech sector and equities in general a lift. Risk assumption is back. Higher equities are giving EURUSD pair a lift. 1.50 line in sight? Also U.S. administration wants the currency to fall to push exports. Overseas complaints will mount. U.K. jobs data better than expected. BOJ kept policy steady but raised economic assessment."

from... GVI Forex Discussion Points. Tuesday Evening

"Traders still trying to figure out what to do with the USD. Administration wants the currency fall to push exports. Commerce Secretary Locke indicated his goal is to support exports. Overseas complaints will mount. U.K. inflation weaker than expected. The data keeps door open to additional BOE QE. UK jobs data due Wed. German ZEW data disappoints. Say positive economic signals weakening. U.S. earnings season is here. USD/JPY 90.00 now a pivot point after Tokyo drew a 88.00 USD line in the sand..."

from ..GVI Forex Discussion Points.. Tuesday AM

"Markets are returning to full-strength following the various holidays on Monday. A key focus has been data with U.K. inflation weaker than expected. The data kept the door open to the possibility of additional BOE quantitative easing. German ZEW was mixed and not as strong as expected. Economists indicate that positive signals have been weakening in Germany. There has become a broader focus on the tacit weak dollar policy of the U.S. government. Overseas complaints are likely to mount. U.S. earnings season is at hand..."




John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.

 

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