FX Blog- GVI Forex Month Ahead Interest Rate Outlook for October 19, 2009
Central Bank Policy Outlook -- Key Interest Rates
Global Interest Rates
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Upcoming Central Bank Meetings -- Monetary Profiles
GVI Forex Policy Outlook
No rate change. Quantitative Ease
BOC to hold rates unch until mid-2010
No rate change. Bias lower rates.
Nov or Dec +25bps likely
No rate change. Exit policy mulled
No rate change. Quantitative Ease
No rate change. Steady policy seen
Rates near floor; Quantitative Ease
GVI Bank of Canada Policy
BANK OF CANADA Policy Objective: The Bank of Canada aims to keep inflation at the 2 per cent target, the midpoint of the 1 to 3 per cent inflation-control target range. This target is expressed in terms of total CPI inflation, but the Bank uses a measure of core inflation as an operational guide. Core inflation provides a better measure of the underlying trend of inflation and tends to be a better predictor of future changes in the total CPI.
The chart above shows year/year CPI-X (core CPI) and the target of 2% for this price index.
The chart above shows the current three month Banker Acceptance rate, the current BOC overnight rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Canadian interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the Canadian overnight rate target, three month Bankers Acceptance, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
GVI Reserve Bank of Australia Policy
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA Policy Objective: The policy objective is a target for consumer price inflation, of 2-3 per cent per annum. Monetary policy aims to achieve this over the medium term and, subject to that, to encourage the strong and sustainable growth in the economy. Controlling inflation preserves the value of money. In the long run, this is the principal way in which monetary policy can help to form a sound basis for long-term growth in the economy.
The chart above shows year/year and the CPI target of 2% to 3% for this price index.
The chart above shows the current three month bank bill rate, the current Cash Rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Australian interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the Australian overnight rate target, three month bank bills, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
GVI U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Policy and Economic Profiles
FEDERAL RESERVE Policy Objective: The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy's long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.
U.S. Economic Profile in Charts
The chart above shows year/year core PCE for the U.S. relative to its its reported "comfort zone for this key price index. Headline and Core CPI figures are also shown.
The above monthly U.S. employment chart is included because its the most closely followed data release each month, and because one of the objectives of the Fed is to maximize employment.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current Fed funds target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel U.S. interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the U.S. Fed Funds rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
GVI Bank of England Policy
BANK OF ENGLAND Policy Objective: The Bank's monetary policy objective is to deliver price stability, low inflation, and, subject to that, to support the Government's economic objectives including those for growth and employment. Price stability is defined by the Government's inflation target of 2%.
The chart above shows year/year CPI for the U.K. relative to its 2% target for this key price index.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current Repo Rate and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel U.K. interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the U.K. repo rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
GVI European Central Bank Policy and Economic Profiles
ECB Policy Objective: The primary objective of the ECB's monetary policy is to maintain price stability. The ECB aims at inflation rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
Eurozone Economic Profile in Charts
The chart above shows year/year HICP (Harmonized CPI) for the Eurozone relatrive to its "below 2%" target level.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current ECB "refi" rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Eurozone interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the ECB refi rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.
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Tue 31 July 2018 AA JP- Bank of Japan A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence Wed 1 Aug 2018 A Final Mfg PMIs AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls A 15:00 US- EIA Crude AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision Thu 2 Aug 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 3 Aug 2018 A Final Services PMIs AA 12:30 US- Employment A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
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