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Tuesday October 20, 2009 - 14:01:18 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Month Ahead Forex Forecasts for 20 October 2009

US Currency Outlook -- Forex Currency Pairs


Forex Currency Pairs


Forex Forecast of Major Currency Pairs


The Global-View.com Month Ahead Currency Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here

GVI Forex Trading Points -

October 20, 2009

 

-- Reserve status of USD in doubt. U.S. administration letting it go.

-- Outlook for global economy back looking better.

-- U.S. earnings season results and outlook much better than expected.

-- Japanese forex policy less in favor of a strong JPY.

-- USD seen as vulnerable long-term; Sterling in a parallel situation.

-- USD is the carry trade financing currency for now.

-- Good news for equity markets is bad news for USD and vice-versa.

-- Various PMI indices around the world still taking out 50 boom or bust lines, but pace of gains slowing.

 

USD:

-- Slow U.S. economic recovery, but corporate earnings surprise.

-- Administration favors a lower USD.

-- No official rate hikes in the cards, although some excessive ease may be reduced.

-- Bernanke reiterates steady monetary policy.

-- Watch volatile weekly employment data as leading indicator. Pace of recovery in jobs disappointing.

-- Substantial regular U.S. government funding actions ongoing focus.

 

JPY:

-- 2Q09 GDP turned positive as expected.

-- New Japanese FinMin Fujii a loose cannon. Steady JPY now desired.

-- DPJ government an unknown quantity.

-- New government USD reserve management plan a question mark.

-- Risk of BOJ direct or indirect intervention if JPY gets too strong?

-- U.S. 2yr note vs. USD/JPY back working.

 




Click on chart for two year history

 

EUR:

-- EcoFin (European Finance Ministers) tepid in their opposition to weak USD.

-- EUR primary USD reserve alternative (anti-dollar?).

-- EUR probably already overvalued. Even Trichet hints at such.

-- German and French 2Q09 GDP positive, but peripheral economies weak (Spain, Ireland, etc.)

-- Talk European banking system still sits on questionable assets.

-- Efforts to raise capital seen as generating EUR demand.

-- ECB talks tough but watch what they do, not what they say.

-- Tight EUR/USD to S&P correlation working off and on.

 

 


Click on chart for two year history

GBP:

-- U.K. economic recovery lags the EZ.

-- BOE QE has about run its course?

-- Recent U.K. CPI data still suggest deflation.

-- BOE pushing banks to lend.

-- Brown government vulnerable. More conservative government could be seen as GBP positive.

 

 


Click on chart for two year history

 

CHF:

-- SNB concerned about weakness of the economy, but CHF tied to EUR.

-- Expect SNB intervention at any time to hold EUR 1.50 line vs. EUR.

-- SNB announced explicit 1.50 to1.53 target range for EUR/CHF. .

-- Central bank monetary policy likely to be held steady for a while.

-- SNB also watches TWI in CHF.

 


Click on chart for two year history

 

Business Cycle Trades:

-- Crude $80 level back in play. Weak USD cited.

-- Gold in favor as USD alternative. All time highs breached.

-- Equities a carry trade also.

-- CAD, AUD and NZD business cycle trades come into favor when markets in risk assumption posture.

-- Commodity export economies depend on Chinese demand.

 

CAD

-- BOC has promised to hold rates steady until mid-2010.

-- Fall Canadian election unlikely.

 

AUD

-- RBA seen recently selling AUD and buying USD to replenish reserves.

-- RBA tightens. Another rate hike near end 2009?

-- Russian Central Bank to add AUD to reserves portfolio?

-- AUD/USD to 2-yr note spread working.

 

 

NZD

-- RBNZ: Support will be needed for some time.

-- Expect to keep OCR at or below the current level through until latter part of 2010.

 

 

 

 

John M. Bland is an author and co-founder of Global-View.com. Prior that, he was a senior forex dealer in a subsidiary of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previously, he was a member of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC. He also worked in international liability management. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a BA in Economics from Berkeley.



 

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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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John M. Bland, MBA
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