The Dollar opened lower this morning, driven to a 14-month
low by demand for higher risk assets.Traders were buying equities and commodities while selling the Dollar on
expectations of a strengthening global economy.Sentiment shifted however after the release of weaker than expected U.S. housing
and Producer Prices.Both reports caught
traders by surprise as many thought bullish earnings news from Apple, Inc.
would set a bullish tone for the day.Instead, traders opted to let these two bearish reports set the tone for
Traders fearing a weakening economy and the threat of
deflation halted their demand for higher yielding assets and began seeking the
shelter of the U.S. Dollar and Treasuries. The Dollar rose throughout the day as bottom
pickers entered fresh positions and overbought currencies gave back recent
The EUR USD opened higher as investors chose to ignore
concerns voiced by Trichet and other Euro Zone Financial Ministers regarding
the rapid rise in the Euro and its possible detrimental effects on Euro Zone
exports.Traders drove the Euro higher
until the buying stopped slightly below the psychological 1.50 barrier.Todayâ€™s action suggests that a combination of
verbal intervention and high prices may lead to a break in this market to a
more reasonable level.
The GBP USD closed lower today because of the turnaround in
the U.S. Dollar.Sentiment has been
driving this market higher since last weekâ€™s rumor that the Bank of England
would put an end to its asset buyback program.This week started with rumors the BoE was actually considering expanding
the program.So far this week trading
can be described as sideways.The BoE is
going to release its minutes later this week along with Third Quarter UK
GDP.Both reports are expected to be
market movers.Traders reading the
minutes will be interested to see how the BoE members feel about expanding or
ending the stimulus program.
The USD JPY started lower on Tuesday after Japanese Finance
Minister Fujii said he would not intervene to stop the rise in the Yen until it
was triggered by volatility rather than economic data.The strong rally overnight in the equity
markets was also a contributing factor to the early strength.Once the bearish U.S. housing and PPI Reports were
released, however, equities broke and demand for lower yielding assets helped
push up the USD JPY.
The Bank of Canada voted today to leave interest rates
unchanged along with its plan to begin raising rates sometime during the second
quarter of 2010.This wasnâ€™t the big
news however.The subsequent statement
by the BoC contained language which suggested the possibility of an intervention.Data showed that the recent rally in the
Canadian Dollar had erased much of the gain the economy recently posted.This is raising concerns among central bank
members that the economy will not be able to recover if the currency continues
to strengthen.Traders read this statement
as verbal intervention and covered short USD CAD positions, triggering a strong
The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia
monetary policy committee suggested that members were concerned that a rate
hike might be pre-mature.In addition,
the language suggested that current economic conditions do not dictate a 50
basis point hike in November.The AUD
USD weakened on the news as traders had overbought this market in anticipation
of an aggressive rate hike next month.
The NZD USD followed the Aussie lower as technical indicators
show that this market may be overbought.Some traders feel that aggressive bets on a rate hike in November may
have been a case of over-speculation since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is
offering no sign of changes in its plan to hike rates later next year.
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Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
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