Wednesday October 21, 2009 - 03:37:22 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 21-Oct-2009 - 0335 GMT
The Dow and the Nasdaq fell yesterday after disappointing Housing Starts numbers that came in yesterday. The signals are mixed. Where on the one hand the corporate earnings have been exceeding expectations, whereas on the other the economic data releases have been disappointing.
The Asian indices too are trading lower. The Nikkei (10305.26) is trading lower by 0.31%, Hang Seng and All Ordinaries are down by 0.32% each. Shanghai (3089.38) is moderatly up 0.16%. The Sensex dropped after trading higher for most part yesterday. Expect some further correction led by other Asian indices today.
Crude (78.55) has come off a little after rising sharply over the last few days. The pullback is likely to be restrcited to 75 till the bullishness is alive.
Gold (1054.80), too, had fallen after having faced Resistance near 1070 over the last few days. It has been consolidating between 1042 and 1070 since then. Some more consolidation may be underway before a surge past 1080 is seen.
Dollar has gained against the other major currencies yesterday.
The Euro (1.4916) has come off after testing the Resistance at 1.50 and has fallen to 1.4882. Dollar-Yen (90.68) rose to 91.07 after falling below 90.10 yesterday. The Euro-Yen Cross (135.27) has however been consolidating between 135.00 and 135.75 over the last few days.
The Pound (1.6374) had risen to 1.6490 and has since come off. In the process, it has broken the important Resistance at 1.6435-60 which was being honoured over the last couple of days. Dollar-Swiss (1.0134) rose to 1.0167 after having fallen below the 1.0100 mark yesterday. Aussie too has corrected a little and is trading at 0.9223.
Dollar Rupee has closed at 46.11/12 yesterday and the 1W NDFs are quoting higher near 46.44/49
3M USD LIBOR is still unchanged at 0.28%. The Treasury yields have fallen between 5-6 bps for maturities over 2Y. The 2Y and 10Y benchmark yields were quoting at 0.91% and 3.33% respectively. The Support at 4.00% on 30Y yields continue to be honoured whereas the danger of double top on the 10Y yield is subsiding.
08:30 GMT UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 0-0-9 hold...Actual 0-0-9 hold
12:00 GMT EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal Q1 '09 (2nd)
...Previous EUR -21.5 bln
12:00 GMT EU EA (16) Bal of Trade in services (2nd)
12:00 GMT EU EA (16) Curr Acct Bal as % of GDP (2nd)
US Sep Housing Starts
...Expected 0.620...Actual 0.590 Mln
US Sep Core PPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.1%...Actual -0.1%
US Sep Core PPI (YoY)
...Expected 0.25%...Actual 0.25%
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