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Wednesday October 21, 2009 - 10:16:41 GMT
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European market Update: Key US earnings continue to flow; BOE stands united in holding its QE measures at £175B

Wednesday, October 21, 2009 5:56:58 AM

 European market Update: Key US earnings continue to flow; BOE stands united in holding its QE measures at £175B


- (TH) Thai Central Bank leaves Interest rate unchanged at 1.25%; as Expected
- (SZ) Swiss Sept Money Supply M3 Y/Y: 7.8% v 7.4% prior
- (SZ) Swiss Q3 Real Estate Index Family Homes: 365.9 v 362.3 prior
- (NV) Netherlands Oct Consumer Confidence: -16e v -17 prior
- (UK) BoE Minutes: MPC voted 9 to 0 to maintain both Quantitative Easing at £175B and interest rates at 0.5%
- (SP) Spain Q3 Business Confidence: -21.5 v -19.0 prior

-In equities: European markets opened well bid but this positive momentum had waned with markets turning negative by 4:00EST. In corporate news, some long-standing epics came to a close with Ferrovial [FER.SP] BAA unit coming to an agreement to divest its Gatwick airport. In other sagas, a new page was turned as Cadbury [CBRY.UK] raised the stakes with its Q3 report by reporting increased sales and higher 2009 guidance. Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] surprised the market with a limited Q3 pre-release, putting its net well ahead of expectations. DBK, after opening higher, quickly turned negative as pundits and traders questioned the necessity of the release with speculation running rampant as to what the bank was planning. In another Baltic banking miss, SEB [SEB.SW], like its rival Swed Bank [SWEDA.SW] missed its targets and traded lower. In other notable releases, BHP [BHP.AU] provided a Q1 production update that lacked FY09 iron ore targets. Auto firm Peugeot [UG.FR] reported its Q3 and likewise failed to provide any full year guidance. Equity markets continue to anticipate a wave of US reports expected during the NY morning including BA, NOV, WFC and MS. In sector movements, Industrials, Financials and Basic Materials led the EuroStoxx lower into 5:30EST on mixed volumes.

-In individual equities: Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] Reports prelim Q3 Net €1.4B v €822Me, Pretax €1.3B v €1.15Be. Expects to see Tier 1 cap ratio at 11.7% v 11.0% q/q. || SEB Bank [SEBA.SW] Reports Q3 Net SEK38M v SEK419Me (unclear if comp); Rev SEK9.74B v SEK10.5Be. Credit loss provisions at SEK9.29N v SEK5.95B q/q. || Cadbury [CBRY.UK] Reports Q3 Sales +7% y/y , raises FY guidance. || BHP BHP.AU : Reports Q1 iron ore output 30.1M tons (record output) v 29.8M y'y; believe
China restocking of commodities is essentially complete; Sees restocking in developed economies, especially in steel. || Home Retail [HOME.UK] Reports H1 Rev £2.8B v €2.8Be. LFL sales at Argos -2%, LFL at Homebase +3%. ||Sainsbury [SBRY.UK] Qatar Holdings may increase 26% stake - FT. || Peugeot [UG.FR] Reports Q3 Rev €11.8B v €12.8B y/y. || PPR [PP.FR] Reports Q3 Rev €4.6B (-8.0% y/y). ||

- Speakers: (RU) Russia Central Banker Ulyukayev: Sees scope for additional interest rate cuts before end of 2009 and in 2010. Believed that 2009 Inflation could be below 10% and certainly below 11%. Russian Q4 Net capital inflow between $15 to $20B. Stated that the Russian Central Bank (CBR) purchased $1.5B in Forex markets on Tuesday ||
India PM Economic Panel forecasted FY09/10 growth at 6.5% with the trade deficit at $117B. Change in monetary policy to be determined by growth, inflation pressures. Accommodative monetary policy to continue until FY09/10 year-end in March. The panel saw a need for monetary policy tightening to come after inflation picks up and forecasted FY09/10 yr-end inflation around 6%. The panel acknowledged that short term challenge was to manage inflation, especially in food items. Lastly it saw encouraging signs of revival in capital flows. || BoJ Dep Gov Nishimura commented that thre was a "Bumpy road" ahead for Japan's economic recovery and noted that the global economy was unlikely to suffer a double dip recession. However, he noted that the BOJ must watch overall markets when deciding its monetary policy || Turkish Central Banker Yavas commented that there was plenty of room for additional interest rate cuts and stated that it could lower rates below the 5.3% inflation rate. He added that he did not expect full blown economic recovery in the short term || BoE Minutes: MPC voted 9 to 0 to maintain both Quantitative Easing at £175B and interest rates at 0.5%. There was no compelling reason to change QE measures but MPC had differences of view on medium term inflation outlook. It noted that the Nov meeting was an opportunity to assess QE more fully and that developments over the last month 'generally positive'. QE measures likely aided the LIBOR fall and rise in asset prices and that higher asset prices and GBP decline might aid growth in future. The BOE believed Q3 GDP growth would be close to Aug forecast || Swiss State Secretary Gerber commented that recent CHF currency gains were not due to fundamentals . He did note that deflation risks were dwindling at this time. The Swiss economy still could face a double dip recession. Swiss Govt was on track with economic forecasts || Chinese State Council stated that it had seen stronger than expected economy in YTD period

- In Currencies: The GBP was the primary driver in the currency market this session. The GBP/USD was firmer in European morning and initially tested its June 2008 down-trend line at 1.6500 level on vague dealer chatter circulating reports of ongoing interest from an oil company ahead of a large dividend payment that is providing a bid in GBP. Also continued chatter of Mid-East names preparing for a possible stake build in Sainsbury continued for a second day as well.
Qatar's royal family has cut its stake in banking group Barclays yesterday, refueling speculation it is gearing up for a takeover bid for Sainsbury's [SBRY.UK]. However, the unanimous decision by the BOE to maintain its £175B Quantitative Easing measure lifted the GBP against the major pairs further.
- Forex markets seem to be biding their time until option barriers at EURUSD 1.50 and above run off . The EUR/USD continues to set its sight on the 1.50 level with continued chatter of option barriers lurk. Question remains as to exactly when these options expire and the resulting price action. The EUR/CHF cross was back testing the 1.51 handle where prior speculation of SNB intervention was 'suspected' . Some ket technical levels are again appearing on the horizon with the 1.5040 level and 1.5000 mentioned as 'key'.
- The CAD continued its soft tone following the BOC rate decision and comments from Tuesday. USD/CAD was approaching the mid 1.05 level as the NY morning approached. Central Banks tend to believe that currency intervention is not successful under most conditions but dealers would note that if the technical alignment was advantageous then intervention has the potential to be 'effective'. Thus USD/CAD above the 1.06 level would start to set such ideal 'conditions'

- In Fixed Income: Government bonds are selling of in tandem with equities this morning in
Europe. Gilt markets were searching for clues on the direction of quantitative easing in the BoE Minutes and with asset purchases set to expire in less than a fortnight that BoE's statement that is saw no compelling reason to extend QE in Oct was taken on face value as relatively dovish. As a result, UK yields have probed their highest levels of the month, the 10-year Gilt is higher by 10bps at 3.64% in current trading. A more sober assessment would note that, the BoE added a caveat a more complete evaluation of QE could be taken in November. Bunds and Treasuries were dragged down in the knee-jerk selling despite weakness in equity bourses. The belly of the curve is under the most pressure in Treasuries while the long end is sagging in Germany. The UK opened books on a new syndicated 50year Gilt, with order books said to be in the vicinity of an extremely healthy £8B

- In Energy:
China's State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) to increase its supervision of the hedging activities of state-owned companies according to Far east press accounts. The SASAC wants state-owned companies to scrutinize their hedging deals more closely while signing derivatives contracts.

*** NOTES ***
- Fed's Plosser: Need for a dividing line between Fed's monetary and fiscal policies
- Currency participants awaiting option barriers to roll off in EUR/USD

***Looking Ahead:
- More key US corporate earnings before the bell with Boeing [BA], Eli Lilly [LLY], Manpower [MAN], Altria [MO], Morgan Stanley [MS], Northrop Grumman [NOC], US Bancorp [USB] and Wells Fargo [WFC] expected
- (SP) Spain Aug Trade Balance: No estimates versus -€3.2B prior
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 16th: No estimates v -1.8% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Sept Core Inflation M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior Y/Y: 2.9%e v 2.9% prior
- 10:30 (US) DOE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories: CRUDE: +1.5ME; GASOLINE: -1.2ME; DISTILLATE: -1.2ME; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 81.3%E
- 12:00 (US) Fed's Lacker
- 13:00 (US) Fed's Tarullo
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Beige Book
- 15:30 (MX) Mexican Unemployment Rate: 6.3%e v 6.3% prior
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank SELIC Target Interest Rate Decision: No change expected from the current rate of 8.75%


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