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Thursday October 22, 2009 - 09:59:39 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: UK Retail sales fail to meet expectations; Concerns of a rise in protectionism weighs on equities

Thursday, October 22, 2009 5:56:45 AM

 European Market Update: UK Retail sales fail to meet expectations; Concerns of a rise in protectionism weighs on equities


- (SW) Swedish Riksbank Leaves Repo rate unchanged at 0.25%; As expected. -Sees rates remaining at 0.25% until Autumn 2010
- (RU) Russian Gold & Forex Reserves w/e Oct 16th: $423.4B v $418.7B prior
- (SZ) Swiss Sept Trade Balance: CHF1.92B v CHF1.72B prior
- (FR) French Oct Business Confidence Indicator: 89 v 87e; Own Company Production Outlook: -2 v -9e; Production Outlook -11 v - -13e
- (HU) Hungarian Aug Retail Trade Y/Y: -7.2% v -5.7%e
- (SW) Swedish Sept Unemployment Rate: 8.3% v 8.3%e
- (IT) Italian Aug Retail Sales M/M: -0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -2.9% v -1.7%e
- (TA) Taiwan Sept Unemployment Rate: 6.1% v 6.1%e
- (EU) ECB Euro-zone Aug Current Account: -€5.0 v €9.3B prior
- (UK) Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.0% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.8%e
- (UK) BoE Trends in Lending Report: Net Mortgage Lending £2.1B v £2.6B prior, Gross Mortgage Lending: £10.2B v £9.6B prior
- (EU) Euro-zone Govt/Debt to GDP Ratio: 69.3% v 69.3% prior
- (IT) Italian Sept Trade Balance: -€513M v -€970M prior
- (PD) Poland Final Q2 GDP Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1% prior

-In equities: Shrugging off solid Swiss based earnings, equities in Europe opened under significant weight. This downside trading continued through the morning session following negative trading in
Asia following China's Q3 Real GDP release. In the European premarket, Nestle [NESN.SZ], Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ] and Novartis [NOVN.SZ] all reported strong earnings. Despite this performance, bearish earnings out of Ericsson [ERICB.SW], Air Liquide [AI.FR] and Schnieder Electric [SU.FR] added to the downside pressure on equity markets. In sector trading, Financials and Basic Materials dueled it out for the leading lager on the back of China demand expectations, earnings and production updates. UK SSS figures for the month of Sept disappointed expectations, adding some recent weight to retail and consumer discretionary names. Equities look towards the NY morning for further earnings releases from US names including BDK, DAL, DOW, GR, MCD, T, UPS. Trading volumes have been strong with most markets outperforming their moving averages.

-In Specific stocks: Novartis [NOVN.SZ] Reports Q3 Net $2.1B v $2.1Be, Rev $11.1B v $10.8Be; remains pleased with underlying performance. Guides FY09 Group Net Rev +'single high digit' rate y/y. || Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ] Reports Q3 Net CHF2.4B V CHF1.7Be, Rev CHF8.92B v CHF8.5Be. CEO: Are confident about our business model and our competitive position. || Nestle [NESN.SZ] Reports 9-month CHF79.5B v CHF80Be, to increase share buyback to CHF7B from CHF4B. || Ericsson [ERICB.SW] Reports Q3 Net SEK800M v SEK2.9B, Rev SEK46.4B v SEK50.6Be. || Lonmin [LMI.UK] Reports Q4 production 2.6M tons down 20% y/y, FY production of 10.8M tons. || Debenhams [DEB.UK] Reports Prelim FY09 Pretax £125.5M v £123Me, Rev £2.34B v £2.15Be; LFL -3.6%; Chairman to retire as of
March 31, 2010. || Anglo American [AAL.UK] Releases Q3 Production report: Iron Ore + 15.7% y/y, Copper +13.4% y/y. || Air Liquide [AI.FR] Reports Q3 Rev €2.98B v €3.25B y/y (-8.2% y/y). || Schneider Electric [SU.FR] Reports Q3 Rev €3.95B; LFL -17% y/y. ||

- Speakers: ECB's Weber commented that a double dip recession was unlikely in Euro-zone. He noted that inflation risks were low and threats of deflation have disappeared. He reiterated belief that Euro-zone probably grew in Q3 on a sequential basis with
Germany's Q3 GDP likely better than Q2 performance. There was still some risk in financial sector and noted that some corporate earnings might fail to materialize. Weber stressed again that special fiscal measures should commence its exit no be later than 2011. lastly any quick return to pre crisis growth trajectory is not likely || German MOF commented that the German economic recovery gained pace in Q3 aided by increase in domestic consumption and foreign demand. The MOF expected imports to continue to rise on back of the recovery and that private Consumption likely increased In 3Q from 2Q levels. The ministry cautioned that economic recovery was likely to continue abate moderately. Lastly it stated that 2009 Federal net borrowing was markedly below €49B level || BoE's Tucker: difficult to gauge strength of UK recovery. He noted that Quantitative Easing (QE) measures could be extended if the economy needed such action || South African Economic Development Min denies speculation of Rand currency 'freeze' (See currency section) || EU Summit draft ahead of its planned Oct 29th/30th summit: "Bold" action on economy now showing progress. Says it needs 'fully secured' recovery before stimulus measures are removed. Fiscal consolidation must start in 2011 period at the latest and exceed 0.5% of GDP annually in most member countries ||

- In Currencies: The dollar saw some consolidation ahead of the European morning as the slew of Chinese data provided little surprises and the Q3 GDP growth was largely in line with expectations. The EUR/USD moved back below the 1.50 handle on chatter that the BIS was 'offering' Euros near yesterday's intra-session highs of 1.5045 area.
- Dealers noted that some dollar demand could be a result of the recent pickup in protectionism citing the Brazil tax move and chatter regarding South Africa (see below)
- Overall, dealers ponder if the recent trend of Central Bank reserve diversification away from the USD will again take charge and traders take advantage to sell USD on such rallies
- The Pound Sterling retraced a good portion of yesterday's gains following comments from BOE member Tucker, who noted it would be possible to increase quantitative if necessary. GBP endured additional selling pressures against the majors following the weaker-than-expected
UK retail sales data for Sept. GBP/USD retested the former downtrend line now pegged at 1.6470 area. This line was established in July 2008 and broken on Tuesday.
South African Economic Development Min: Denies speculation of
Rand 'freeze'. Dealers did take note of press speculation which attributed ZAR weakness to chatter regarding proposal to freeze South Africa's currency at a predetermined exchange rate ||

- In Fixed Income: Government bonds have benefited from the risk reversal today, with a reallocation of assets away from risk and into safety driving Bund, Gilt and Treasury prices higher and yield lower. Gilts also benefited from an apparent change in heart from the BoE's Tucker, who appeared to hint at support for an expansion of QE in November. The DMO sold £4/75B in on the run 5s, with a comparatively weak bid-to-cover of 1.56x. The 10y Note yield is steady at 3.39% whilst the Bund yield is lower by almost 3bps at 3.293%

- In Energy: Opec Gen Sec: To increase output in Dec if conditions are right
||Tesoro [TSO] reported a fire has occurred at Salt Lake City refinery

- In the papers: UK Treasury Minister Timms to attend a meeting today in Paris related to talks about a possible currency transactions tax - Guardian || The South African Rand (ZAR)( encountered some weakness as dealer took note of a article in Fin24 noted that the Ministry of Economic Development was preparing to propose "radical" economic policy adjustments. Article noted that these include a controversial proposal to freeze
South Africa's currency at a predetermined exchange rate, so that the economy can benefit from the stability of the rand, which is coupled to an external standard.

*** NOTES ***
- European markets take note of a Citi Tech History lesson. The note stated that after the Dow Jones Industrial declined over 50% to its lows in March 1938 it started a bear market rally of 64% over the course of 224 days before peaking at a level that was not overcome until 1945. Citi pointed out that last Friday the S&P was 64% off its March low exactly 224 days after the low was placed.
- China Officials note that the USD is one of the external uncertainties. No surprises with the Chinese data in
Asia with GDP just below consensus expectations of 9.0%.
Japan Trade surplus lower than expected but exports continue to remain subdued
- Protectionism on the rise???
Brazil's tax on capital inflows; South Africa mulling 'freeze' on its currency to aid economy.
- UK Sept retail sales fall more than expected as consumer continue

***Looking Ahead:
- More major US corp earning to be released with BDK, BMY, CELG, DOW, DAL, EMC, GR, HOT, HSY, KMB, LM, MCD, LM, MMM, NUE, PM, RAI, SGP, STI, T, UPS and XRX expected
- (SA) South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Interest Rate Decision: No change expected in the base rate from the 7.0% level
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Unemployment Rate: 8.0%e v 8.1% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Retail Sales M/M: 0.4%e v -0.6% prior, Less Autos M/M: 0.6%e v -0.8% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Oct 17th: 515Ke v 514K prior, Continuing Claims w/e Oct 10th: 5.79Me v 5.992M prior
- 9:00 (US) Aug RPX Composite 28 day Y/Y: No estimates v -12.46% prior, RPX Composite 28 day Index: No estimates v 198.40
- 10:00 (US) Leading Indicators: 0.8%e v 0.6% prior
- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BoC) Monetary Policy Report
- 10:30 (US) Fed's Rosengren
- 11:30 (UK) BoE's Tucker
- 12:00 (US) Fed's Lockhart
- 13:30 (US) Fed's Dudley
- 16:00 (US) Fed's Evans


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