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Forex Blog - European Market Update: UK remains in recession with weaker-than expected Q3 GDP data; Continental European Manufacturing PMIs moves above the growth level

Friday, October 23, 2009 5:55:52 AM

 European Market Update: UK remains in recession with weaker-than expected Q3 GDP data; Continental European Manufacturing PMIs moves above the growth level

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (FR) French Sept Consumer Spending M/M: 2.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v -0.4%e
- (FR) French Oct preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 55.3 v 50.1 v 49.6e (highest reading in 35 months); PMI Services: 57.8 v 54.0e (highest reading in 20 months)
- (AV) Austria Aug Industrial Production M/M: 2.0% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: -10.0% v -10.6% prior
- (SP) Spanish Q3 Unemployment Rate: 17.9% v 18.7%e
- (GE) German Oct Advance PMI Manufacturing: 51.1v 50.1e; 52.5e; PMI Services: 50.9 v 52.5e
- (NV) Dutch Aug Consumer Spending: -3.5% v -2.3% prior
- (TT) Taiwan Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: +1.0% v -4.9%e; Export Orders: -3.0% v -6.3%e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Oct Adv PMI Manufacturing: 50.7 v 50.0e; PMI Services: 52.3 v 51.3e; PMI Composite: 53.0 v 51.6e
- (GE) German Oct IFO-Business Climate: 91.9v 92.0e; Current Assessment: 87.3 v 88.0e; Expectations: 96.8 v 96.2e
- (PD) Polish Sept Retail Sales M/M: -0.7% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 4.0%e
- (PD) Polish Sept Unemployment Rate: 10.9% v 11.0%e
- (UK) Q3 Adv GDP Q/Q: -0.4% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: -5.2% v -4.6%e
- (UK) Sept BBA Loans for House Purchase: 42.1K v 39.3Ke
- (UK) Aug Index of Services 3m3/m: -0.1% v 0.1%e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Aug Industrial New Orders: 2.0% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: -23.1% v -22.5%e
- (MA) Malaysia Sept CPI Y/Y: -2.0% v -2.0%e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
-In equities: European equity markets opened sharply positive following a NY afternoon and post market rally driven by earrings (financial/tech). Equity strength continued into Asian markets, being aided by further positive earnings from tech/chip manufacturers. Pre-market European earnings included better than expected reports out of struggling truck maker Volvo [VOLVB.SW], increased FY09 guidance out of Saab [SAABB.SW] and cautiously optimistic 2010 guidance from seed/fertilizer maker Syngenta [SYNN.SZ]. Equity bourses quickly traded over the 1.00% hurdle, PMI reads ahead of 50 from
France and Germany supported the equity movement. Equity markets, and specifically US equity futures took a pause following the UK Q3 adv GDP read that missed expectations and kept the UK in recession. Markets paired their gains and developed a broad downward trend. Despite this rotation, markets into 5:00EST were still well into positive territory by approx 0.90% across the board. Health Care and Tech names have led the morning out performance on the EuroStoxx50. Turnover levels have remained high with the FTSE and CAC outperforming their moving averages.

-in individual equities: Syngenta [SYNN.SZ] Reports Q3 Rev $2.08B v $2.05Be. For the full year, Syngenta is targeting earnings per share close to the level achieved in 2008. || Volvo [VOLVB.SW] Reports Q3 Net loss SEK3.29 v loss SEK3.32Be, Rev SEK48.5B v SEK47.7Be; Notes markets have stabilized. Outlook: maintain our assessment that the total European market for heavy trucks will be at least halved in 2009 compared with 2008. || Saab [SAABB.SW] Update: Reports Q3 Net SEK105M v SEK65Me, Rev SEK5.18B v SEK4.73Be; Raises FY09 Rev guidance. For the full-year 2009, sales will increase by about 5 percent when compared to 2008 (implies SEK24.99B v SEK24.74Be). || BSkyB BSY.UK: Reports Q1 EBITDA £279M v £271Me, Rev £1.4B v£1.4Be. || Anglo American [AAL.UK] Reportedly seeking $7B for its Tarmac and other assets. || Danone [BN.FR] Reports Q3 Rev €3.8B v €3.8Be; Reaffirms FY guidance. || Areva [CEI.FR] Reports Q3 Rev €3.16B v €2.94B y/y; Begun talks for potential capital hike with partners. || Saint Gobain [SGO.FR] Reports Q3 Rev €9.72B v €11.29B y/y. ||

- Speakers: | ECB's Sramko commented that the USD was weak at this time and noted that a strong Euro could spark problems. He urged greater coordination on FX was needed. Sramko reiterated the view that the current interest rates were appropriate. Risks remain in the economic environment bit acknowledge recent positive signs || BoE's Posen commented that he did have some concerns over near term outlook; special measure policies will need to be reversed at some point || Japanese Bank Min Kamei: Over ¥10T in extra budget needed for economy - Japanese press || German IFO commented that the economic recovery continued although moderately. The IFO noted that German retailers were not pleased with current situation || IFO's Aberger commented that the Euro currency exchange rate above 1.50 posed problems for
Germany exporters. He noted that German companies still have plans to reduce jobs but that the trend was easing. The situation in industrial sector wass easing but capacity remained under long-term average. He conceded that the current ECB interest rates were appropriate
|| Chief Economist Nerb commented that German business confidence gain driven by manufacturing and exports. He noted that the Euro currency strength could cause problems in future. He saw continued weakening in German retail sector. He stated that inflation was not a problem and should not be a concern for ECB. The recent Federal elections results might have increased expectations but added that confidence improvements likely to continue || Russia Central Banker Ulyukayev reiterated the view that more interest rate cuts could occur in 2009 and into 2010 period as inflation ebbs. He stated that 2009 inflation to be below 10% and between 9% to 10% in 2010. The CBR could lower the Refi rate below the 9.0% level in 2010 (currently at 10.00%). Bank Rossii (central bank) purchased over $11B of currency in Oct thus far with recent intervention level at 35.50 in the Ruble basket. He reiterated that
Russia continues to hold 35% of its $400B+ reserves in US Treasuries||

- In Currencies: A slew of key European data was set for release and the USD maintained a softer tome throughout the early morning as the manufacturing PMIs for
France and Germany came in above expectations and above the 50 level suggesting expansion in the sector. However, the Services PMI data were mixed bag of readings. The EUR/USD remained elevated above 1.5000 through the session as dealers noted that several option expirations were again in play. Central Bank reserve diversification away from the USD remains a constant theme again and dealers comtinue to look to buy EUR/USD on dips despite the heightened verbal rhetoric, even from some ECB members now (e.g. Sramko)
- The GBP was broadly firmer ahead the UK's GDP release with the whisper number circulating at +0.4% but did take a defensive stance in the minutes ahead of the release. An RBC analyst note suggested that if UK GDP data came in below forecasts might burst the GBP bubble and that seemed to happen following the -0.4% reading. The number likely to raise the debate over a potential expansion of the BoE's £175B QE program. GBP/USD dipped to test 1.6400 while GBP/JPY declined over 300 pips from its late Asian session highs. EUR/GBP surged over 130 pips in the aftermath of the data towards the 0.92 area.
- General JPY weakness attributed early in the session was attributed to press reports that BOJ saw continued deflation in
Japan with 2011 core consumer price index expected to drop again for the third consecutive year. Dealers noted that this was another indication that the central bank would keep interest rates near zero for the time being. USD/JPY probing towards the 92.00 level. EUR/JPY touched the 138 handle.

- In Fixed Income: Gilt markets have surged after the
UK was unexpectedly unable to lift itself out of recession in the third quarter. The UK registered its 6th successive quarter of negative growth, making the current recession the deepest on record and increasing the likelihood of a QE extension from the BoE in November. Yields fell by over 10bps points across the curve following the data, seeing the 2year Gilt move below 0.90% (having traded above 1%) and the 10 year Gilt hitting an intra-day low yield of 3.635%. European peripheral debt spreads are mixed with the Greek 10-year 5bps wider versus Bunds at +136bps following yesterday's downgrade at Fitch, whilst Spain is about a basis point narrower after a better than expected Unemployment Rate in Q3, which admittedly is still at 17.9%. Treasuries are weaker across the term structure with particular selling in the short end after a piece in the FT grabbed the market's attention. The report suggested that FOMC members were agonizing over altering their commitment to keeping rates low "for an extended period" in upcoming statements, and as a result the 2 year Note moved back above 1% for the first time in October. The 10 year Note is +4bps at 3.454% and the Long Bond is back above the psychological 4.25% mark.

- Geo-political: Russian For Min Lavrov:
Russia agree with UN draft deal to reduce stockpile of low-grade uranium in Iran ||

- In the papers: FT piece pointing to shift in Fed language and ending of zero rate policy. Article noted that speculation was rising that FOMC members were considering softening commitment to keep rates low for an "extended period", providing the Fed with flexibility to adjust policy if inflation escalates faster than expected.

*** NOTES ***
- Key US earning continue with EXC, HON, IR, MSFT, SLB and WHR expected before the NYSE opening bell
- FT: Fed weighs language on rates guidance
- Asia Development Bank: Sees clear signs of credit tightening in China

***Looking Ahead:
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Oct IBGE Inflation M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior
- 8:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Current Account: -$2.38Be v -$821M prior
- 8:30 (US) Fed's Bernanke
-10:00 (US) Sept Existing Home Sales: 5.35Me v 5.1M prior, M/M: 4.9%e v -2.7% prior
- 11:30 (US) Fed's Kohn
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Sept Prelim Trade Balance: -$0.9Be v -$0.8B prior
- (CO) Colombia Central bank Interest rate decision: No change expected in the overnight rate from the current 4.00% level

 

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