User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday October 23, 2009 - 10:04:04 GMT
Trade the News Staff -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Blog - European Market Update: UK remains in recession with weaker-than expected Q3 GDP data; Continental European Manufacturing PMIs moves above the growth level

Friday, October 23, 2009 5:55:52 AM

 European Market Update: UK remains in recession with weaker-than expected Q3 GDP data; Continental European Manufacturing PMIs moves above the growth level


- (FR) French Sept Consumer Spending M/M: 2.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v -0.4%e
- (FR) French Oct preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 55.3 v 50.1 v 49.6e (highest reading in 35 months); PMI Services: 57.8 v 54.0e (highest reading in 20 months)
- (AV) Austria Aug Industrial Production M/M: 2.0% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: -10.0% v -10.6% prior
- (SP) Spanish Q3 Unemployment Rate: 17.9% v 18.7%e
- (GE) German Oct Advance PMI Manufacturing: 51.1v 50.1e; 52.5e; PMI Services: 50.9 v 52.5e
- (NV) Dutch Aug Consumer Spending: -3.5% v -2.3% prior
- (TT) Taiwan Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: +1.0% v -4.9%e; Export Orders: -3.0% v -6.3%e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Oct Adv PMI Manufacturing: 50.7 v 50.0e; PMI Services: 52.3 v 51.3e; PMI Composite: 53.0 v 51.6e
- (GE) German Oct IFO-Business Climate: 91.9v 92.0e; Current Assessment: 87.3 v 88.0e; Expectations: 96.8 v 96.2e
- (PD) Polish Sept Retail Sales M/M: -0.7% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 4.0%e
- (PD) Polish Sept Unemployment Rate: 10.9% v 11.0%e
- (UK) Q3 Adv GDP Q/Q: -0.4% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: -5.2% v -4.6%e
- (UK) Sept BBA Loans for House Purchase: 42.1K v 39.3Ke
- (UK) Aug Index of Services 3m3/m: -0.1% v 0.1%e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Aug Industrial New Orders: 2.0% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: -23.1% v -22.5%e
- (MA) Malaysia Sept CPI Y/Y: -2.0% v -2.0%e

-In equities: European equity markets opened sharply positive following a NY afternoon and post market rally driven by earrings (financial/tech). Equity strength continued into Asian markets, being aided by further positive earnings from tech/chip manufacturers. Pre-market European earnings included better than expected reports out of struggling truck maker Volvo [VOLVB.SW], increased FY09 guidance out of Saab [SAABB.SW] and cautiously optimistic 2010 guidance from seed/fertilizer maker Syngenta [SYNN.SZ]. Equity bourses quickly traded over the 1.00% hurdle, PMI reads ahead of 50 from
France and Germany supported the equity movement. Equity markets, and specifically US equity futures took a pause following the UK Q3 adv GDP read that missed expectations and kept the UK in recession. Markets paired their gains and developed a broad downward trend. Despite this rotation, markets into 5:00EST were still well into positive territory by approx 0.90% across the board. Health Care and Tech names have led the morning out performance on the EuroStoxx50. Turnover levels have remained high with the FTSE and CAC outperforming their moving averages.

-in individual equities: Syngenta [SYNN.SZ] Reports Q3 Rev $2.08B v $2.05Be. For the full year, Syngenta is targeting earnings per share close to the level achieved in 2008. || Volvo [VOLVB.SW] Reports Q3 Net loss SEK3.29 v loss SEK3.32Be, Rev SEK48.5B v SEK47.7Be; Notes markets have stabilized. Outlook: maintain our assessment that the total European market for heavy trucks will be at least halved in 2009 compared with 2008. || Saab [SAABB.SW] Update: Reports Q3 Net SEK105M v SEK65Me, Rev SEK5.18B v SEK4.73Be; Raises FY09 Rev guidance. For the full-year 2009, sales will increase by about 5 percent when compared to 2008 (implies SEK24.99B v SEK24.74Be). || BSkyB BSY.UK: Reports Q1 EBITDA £279M v £271Me, Rev £1.4B v£1.4Be. || Anglo American [AAL.UK] Reportedly seeking $7B for its Tarmac and other assets. || Danone [BN.FR] Reports Q3 Rev €3.8B v €3.8Be; Reaffirms FY guidance. || Areva [CEI.FR] Reports Q3 Rev €3.16B v €2.94B y/y; Begun talks for potential capital hike with partners. || Saint Gobain [SGO.FR] Reports Q3 Rev €9.72B v €11.29B y/y. ||

- Speakers: | ECB's Sramko commented that the USD was weak at this time and noted that a strong Euro could spark problems. He urged greater coordination on FX was needed. Sramko reiterated the view that the current interest rates were appropriate. Risks remain in the economic environment bit acknowledge recent positive signs || BoE's Posen commented that he did have some concerns over near term outlook; special measure policies will need to be reversed at some point || Japanese Bank Min Kamei: Over ¥10T in extra budget needed for economy - Japanese press || German IFO commented that the economic recovery continued although moderately. The IFO noted that German retailers were not pleased with current situation || IFO's Aberger commented that the Euro currency exchange rate above 1.50 posed problems for
Germany exporters. He noted that German companies still have plans to reduce jobs but that the trend was easing. The situation in industrial sector wass easing but capacity remained under long-term average. He conceded that the current ECB interest rates were appropriate
|| Chief Economist Nerb commented that German business confidence gain driven by manufacturing and exports. He noted that the Euro currency strength could cause problems in future. He saw continued weakening in German retail sector. He stated that inflation was not a problem and should not be a concern for ECB. The recent Federal elections results might have increased expectations but added that confidence improvements likely to continue || Russia Central Banker Ulyukayev reiterated the view that more interest rate cuts could occur in 2009 and into 2010 period as inflation ebbs. He stated that 2009 inflation to be below 10% and between 9% to 10% in 2010. The CBR could lower the Refi rate below the 9.0% level in 2010 (currently at 10.00%). Bank Rossii (central bank) purchased over $11B of currency in Oct thus far with recent intervention level at 35.50 in the Ruble basket. He reiterated that
Russia continues to hold 35% of its $400B+ reserves in US Treasuries||

- In Currencies: A slew of key European data was set for release and the USD maintained a softer tome throughout the early morning as the manufacturing PMIs for
France and Germany came in above expectations and above the 50 level suggesting expansion in the sector. However, the Services PMI data were mixed bag of readings. The EUR/USD remained elevated above 1.5000 through the session as dealers noted that several option expirations were again in play. Central Bank reserve diversification away from the USD remains a constant theme again and dealers comtinue to look to buy EUR/USD on dips despite the heightened verbal rhetoric, even from some ECB members now (e.g. Sramko)
- The GBP was broadly firmer ahead the UK's GDP release with the whisper number circulating at +0.4% but did take a defensive stance in the minutes ahead of the release. An RBC analyst note suggested that if UK GDP data came in below forecasts might burst the GBP bubble and that seemed to happen following the -0.4% reading. The number likely to raise the debate over a potential expansion of the BoE's £175B QE program. GBP/USD dipped to test 1.6400 while GBP/JPY declined over 300 pips from its late Asian session highs. EUR/GBP surged over 130 pips in the aftermath of the data towards the 0.92 area.
- General JPY weakness attributed early in the session was attributed to press reports that BOJ saw continued deflation in
Japan with 2011 core consumer price index expected to drop again for the third consecutive year. Dealers noted that this was another indication that the central bank would keep interest rates near zero for the time being. USD/JPY probing towards the 92.00 level. EUR/JPY touched the 138 handle.

- In Fixed Income: Gilt markets have surged after the
UK was unexpectedly unable to lift itself out of recession in the third quarter. The UK registered its 6th successive quarter of negative growth, making the current recession the deepest on record and increasing the likelihood of a QE extension from the BoE in November. Yields fell by over 10bps points across the curve following the data, seeing the 2year Gilt move below 0.90% (having traded above 1%) and the 10 year Gilt hitting an intra-day low yield of 3.635%. European peripheral debt spreads are mixed with the Greek 10-year 5bps wider versus Bunds at +136bps following yesterday's downgrade at Fitch, whilst Spain is about a basis point narrower after a better than expected Unemployment Rate in Q3, which admittedly is still at 17.9%. Treasuries are weaker across the term structure with particular selling in the short end after a piece in the FT grabbed the market's attention. The report suggested that FOMC members were agonizing over altering their commitment to keeping rates low "for an extended period" in upcoming statements, and as a result the 2 year Note moved back above 1% for the first time in October. The 10 year Note is +4bps at 3.454% and the Long Bond is back above the psychological 4.25% mark.

- Geo-political: Russian For Min Lavrov:
Russia agree with UN draft deal to reduce stockpile of low-grade uranium in Iran ||

- In the papers: FT piece pointing to shift in Fed language and ending of zero rate policy. Article noted that speculation was rising that FOMC members were considering softening commitment to keep rates low for an "extended period", providing the Fed with flexibility to adjust policy if inflation escalates faster than expected.

*** NOTES ***
- Key US earning continue with EXC, HON, IR, MSFT, SLB and WHR expected before the NYSE opening bell
- FT: Fed weighs language on rates guidance
- Asia Development Bank: Sees clear signs of credit tightening in China

***Looking Ahead:
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Oct IBGE Inflation M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior
- 8:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Current Account: -$2.38Be v -$821M prior
- 8:30 (US) Fed's Bernanke
-10:00 (US) Sept Existing Home Sales: 5.35Me v 5.1M prior, M/M: 4.9%e v -2.7% prior
- 11:30 (US) Fed's Kohn
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Sept Prelim Trade Balance: -$0.9Be v -$0.8B prior
- (CO) Colombia Central bank Interest rate decision: No change expected in the overnight rate from the current 4.00% level


Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.




Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105