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Monday October 26, 2009 - 10:29:18 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: ING to launch €7.5B rights issue to begin repaying Ducth State

Monday, October 26, 2009 5:50:28 AM

 European Market Update: ING to launch €7.5B rights issue to begin repaying Ducth State


- (SP) Spain Aug Trade Balance: -€4.5B v -€3.2B prior
- (GE) German Nov GfK Consumer Confidence: 4.0 v 4.5e
- (CZ) Czech Oct Consumer Confidence: -14.3 v -13.0 prior; Business Confidence: -7.1 v -6.6 prior, Consumer & Business Confidence: -8.5 v -7.9 prior
- (SP) Spanish Sept Producer Prices M/M: -0.4% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -5.4% v -5.0%e
- (SW) Swedish Sept Trade Balance: €5.5 v €5.4B prior

-In equities: Equity markets in Europe bounced off a mixed closing on Friday's session moderate trading gains. This action followed a broadly positive Asian trading session the included market holiday's for
New Zealand and the Hang Sang. Weekend and pre-market corporate news was dominated by the financial sector with further commentary on the timing of a speculated £23B capital raise out of Lloyds [LLOY.UK] and speculation that RBS [RBS.UK] was looking to lower its involvement in the APS. In the premarket, ING [INGA.NV] announced the results of EC negotiations over state aid that will involve a €7.5B rights issue, and the total spin separation of the groups banking and insurance operations by 2013. In earnings news, Scania [SCVB.SW] continued the trend started by Volvo [VOLB.SW] by slightly beating expectations and trading higher. Merck KgA [MRK.GE] reported its Q3 broadly in line with expectations and clarified its FY09 expectations for group and unit revenues, shares traded lower from the open by approx €2. Equities traded lower from their opening levels through the morning session with weight specifically in the Financial sector.

***Reminder: European and UK clocks have rolled over and advanced 1hr, time difference between EST to the UK is now 4hrs, EST to Central European Time is now 5hrs

-In equities: ING [INGA.NV] To launch €7.5B rights offerings to repay half of Dutch state aid (about 30% of market cap); to split banking and insurance units, to divest all insurance operations by 2013. Reports Q3 Prelim Net €500M (ex items) v €740Me, Q3 net pre extraordinary items seen at €750M v €740Me. || Merck [MRK.GE] Reports Q3 Net €144.4M v €133Me, Rev €1.94B v €1.95Be; Guides FY09 liquide crystal sales -20% y/y (-20-25% prior). Guides FY09 total Rev +2% y/y (prior flat to +5% y/y), ROS of 17% (prior +15-20%). || Lloyds [LLOY.UK] Group to announce £23B capital raise plans 'within days,'
UK gov as 43% stake holder seen footing £5B of that sum -Times. || RBS [RBS.UK] Seeking to cut £45B from targeted APS usage (initial sum of £325B); UK gov could inject further billions of pounds into banking group -Times. || Cable and Wireless [CW.UK] Reportedly reconsidering £3.6B de-merger operation -Times. || Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] Expected to finalize deal to buy Sal Oppenheim as early as this week - FT. || Wacker Chemie [WCH.GE] CEO: Q3 sales levels to show q/q improvements - Wirtschafswoche. ||

- Speakers: Japanese PM Hatoyama commented in his first policy speech to parliament that the economic recovery was top priority. He conceded that the unemployment situation might worsen. The PM stressed that one needed to ensure a sustainable growth rate and that such growth was
achieved via domestic-led growth. He noted that markets should not determine "everything".
Japan has to deal with worsening employment conditions and he would spend saved extra-budget funds to support economy || BoE Q3 Asset Purchase facility Report noted that corporate bond market liquidity had improved . Investor demand for GBP denominated corporate paper remained strong but GBP denominated Commercial paper declined in Q3 with CP increasingly being issued in foreign currencies

- In Currencies: The USD was relatively subdued in a quiet European session against the major pairs. Another week of trading appears to maintain the theme of a carry-related sentiment of the dollar with its low yield continued to envelop the market, particularly under the backdrop of ongoing equity market gains and the associated appetite for risk. The Chinese press reports about the PBoC looking to add Euro and JPY to their reserves saw no follow through in price action as of yet but the EUR/USD did maintain a foothold above the 1.50 level all session.

The GBP/USD was a bit choppy following last weeks negative Q3 GDP reading: Former BOE member Blanchflower commented that the central bank (BOE) was likely to add another €50B to QE measures and possible the measures could reach £250B.

- WSJ "Currency Trading" section did note that the USD might benefit from growing uncertainty about economic recovery in
Europe and elsewhere. Worries over the pace of recovery might once again resurface after a disappointing GDP report from the UK

- In Fixed Income: European government bonds are in negative territory amidst modest gains for stock indices. The
UK yield curve has flattened thanks to weakness in the short end, while Germany has seen bear steepening. The 10 year Gilt yield is about 2bps higher at 3.695% while 10 Bunds yield 3.36%, up 1.5bps on the day. European peripheral government bonds are broadly unchanged versus Bunds. With a record amount of supply set to hit the street this week, Treasury yields briefly breached some key levels in the overnight session, only to retreat as buyers took advantage of the dip. The 10 year Note hit an intra-session high yield above 3.50% (the first time that mark has been breached in October) while the 30-year Bond is stiting right near the 4.30% mark.

- In Energy: Sinopec [SNP] Chinese press noted that the
Co. discovered natural gas field in China which has reserves equal to 120B cubic meters of gas. The field is located in Chongqing, China and the discovery could be the Asia's largest natural gas find. ||IEA's Tanaka commented that he was supportive of East Siberian tax breaks for oil producers || Nigerian rebels group MEND agreed to indefinite cease-fire in Nigeria beginning Sunday || Lundberg survey, avg price of regular US gasoline rose by 7% to $2.66/gallon as of Oct 23rd. This is the first rise in gasoline prices in 2 months. The rise in prices is being driven by higher crude prices. ||

- Commodities: WSJ "Heard on the Street" column stated that cool, wet weather had practically stopped harvest work in the
Corn Belt. Column noted that about 17% of the harvest was complete vs 28% done at this point last year. Only about 30% of soybean harvest is done vs 60-80% y/y

- In the papers: FT article noting that Chinese govt was once again permitting overseas securities investment after a 17-month break. Feature cited industry analysts that the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (
SAFE) granted new quotas to E Fund Management and China Merchants Fund Management to invest up to $1B and $500M respectively in offshore securities. The resumption suggested a return to Beijing's earlier strategy of encouraging outflows to relieve pressure on the Chinese currency to appreciate as well the govt belief that the worst of the financial crisis was over || Spanish press noted that the Bank of Spain to request that banks raise provisions for properties. Artcile noted that banks that accept properties as credit payments will have to raise their provisions to 20% of the property's value vs. 10% currently. The higher provisions might impact the values of banks' portfolios as they will have to re-evaluate the value of properties that will be affected by the measure.

- Geo-political: FT reported that UN inspectors had arrived in
Iran over the weekend and began visits to nuclear enrichment plant near Qom. Inspections seen as critical to determining whether Iran would cooperate with global authorities on the direction of its nuclear program || North Korea might have completed work on West coast missile base according to a Yohap report. Article noted that South Korean government officials believe that the facility is three times larger than the Musudan-ri site from which North Korea launched a long-range rocket back in April ||

*** NOTES ***
- Capmark Financial Group as expected files for bankruptcy protection as speculated last week with total debts of $21B
- China should increase its reserves in euro and yen, and although it pointed out that the U.S. dollar should remain the principle reserve currency
- South Korea Q3 GDP exceeds expectations; YoY GDP positive for the first time in a year

***Looking Ahead:
- 8:30 (US) Sep Chicago Fed National Activity Index: No estimates v -0.9 prior
- 10:00 (UK) BoE reverse auction
- 10:30 (US) Dallas Fed National Activity Index: -0.5%e v -6.4% prior
- 11:30 (IS) Israeli Central Bank Base Rate Announcement: No change expected, current rate is 0.75%
- 13:00 (FR) French Sept Total Jobseekers (25.5K last), Jobseekers - Net change (18.1K last)


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