User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday October 27, 2009 - 13:41:23 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

The Eurozone Economy is Going to Zero

Key News
Hungary to Emerge From Economic Crisis as Global Fiscal Leader, BofA Says Hungary is poised to emerge from the global recession as a leader in fiscal health as years of economic pain brought on by government austerity measures pay off, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. (Bloomberg) [Editor’s Note: Yes, you read that right.]
 
Quotable 
“This is how humans are: we question all our beliefs, except for the ones we really believe, and those we never think to question.” 
       Orson Scott Card
 
FX Trading – The Eurozone Economy is Going to Zero
 
Would you think I was crazy if I said I am 100% certain the value of the Eurozone economy would eventually fall to zero?
 
What about if you read my Currency Currents from last Friday, 23 October 2009? In it I laid out several pieces of information that most definitely point to an imminent flat-line for the EZ, no?
 
Okay, maybe there’s more to it than that; maybe Friday’s issue didn’t consider the full picture; maybe there are valid reasons the EZ might not go to zero. After all: it can’t be all gloom and doom – there has to be some boom (i.e. think ‘business cycle’ boom, not ‘suicide bomber’ boom.)
 
Ok, now I’m sounding a little more credible and rational, I would think.
 
But, for the sake of entertainment, in the headline of this article let’s replace ‘Eurozone’ with ‘US dollar’, as in ...
 
The US Dollar is Going to Zero
 
Do I lack credibility by making this forecast?
 
The scary thing is most people would probably fly by this headline without thinking twice. That reflects the current mindset of investors and analysts: gloom in the US, boom in the rest of the world, and doom in the US dollar. There’s no other way around the fact that the world’s reserve currency is on the verge of going “poof”.
 
But I would want to know when it will go to zero, why it would go to zero and what will happen when it does go to zero. And dare I wonder if there’s anything actually keeping it from going to zero?
 
Seems kind of like a hype-driven, unsubstantiated headline ... at best.
 
Ok, I’m done proving my point. Here’s a piece of news that will almost certainly tell you the Eurozone economy is soon going to zero:
 
As a follow-up to some of Friday’s piece, year-over-year growth in the M3 measure of money supply slipped in September. Same goes for M1. More importantly, though, was the annual contraction in credit to the private sector.
 
Apparently this is the first time the Eurozone economy has seen a contraction in loans to the private sector. Loans to households for consumer credit and home purchases each dropped from the previous month’s results. Even loans to non-financial corporation, which had shown welcomed growth in August, showed contraction this month.
 
And apparently the market is starting to price in a rate hike by the European Central Bank next month, after they’ve flooded the Eurozone with record liquidity.
 
Now, this news about loans to the private sector did not catch economists off guard; they seemed to be expecting the declines. 
 
But was anyone else expecting the declines? Is anyone else even bothering to pay attention?
 
This absolutely did not move markets today when it was released. So the euro is not falling on the idea that the Eurozone’s recovery is going to be slow and tough. And it’s not falling on the potential that the ECB choke’s off the short-of-breath recovery in its infancy. 
 
And it’s not falling on the idea that the Eurozone economy is going to zero. 
 
I can tell you, though, that the euro fell sharply versus the US dollar yesterday. And while this may turn out to be just another buying opportunity in the longer-term uptrend for EURUSD, I can tell you the market seems to feel as though the euro is getting tired. The general mood seems to feel there’s more downside potential to this correction, at least.
 
A pull back to roughly $1.4750 will find some trendline support; major support comes in at $1.45 ...

John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital LLC
www.blackswantrading.com  

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Fri-- 12:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI. Top economic indicators.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105