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Wednesday October 28, 2009 - 03:38:02 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 28-Oct-2009 - 0334 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
US stocks have mostly fallen yesterday. While the Nasdaq (2116.09) was down 1.20%, the Dow (9882.17) was up merely 0.14% on mixed economic data. While home price index numbes were encouraging, the consumer confidence is still not looking good.

The Asian stocks are weak today as well. The Nikkei (10,144.55) is down 0.66%, the Hang Seng (21,988.46) is down more than a percent, the Shanghai (3015.39) is down 0.20%. The Sensex had seen some major correction yesterday led by realty and banking stocks after the RBI raised the SLR from 24% to 25% and called for a higher provisioning for NPAs.


COMMODITIES
After declining for three consecutive days, Crude (79.74) closed higher yesterday following the optimism of economic recovery. A strong break above 80 might see a rise towards 82.00-50 in the coming days. On the downside Support is seen at 77.50. The US Crude inventory data is due today.

Gold (1042.20) closed lower for the fourth consecutive day as the dollar continued to strengthen thereby reducing the precious metal's hedge value. However it has risen from yesterday's low of 1032.90 and is now trading above 1040. As mentioned earlier 1030-20 is a significant Support region seen on the downside which we expect to hold.


CURRENCIES
Further corrective gains have been seen in the Dollar since yesterday vis-a-vis the non-Yen currencies. Or, in other words, both the Dollar and the Yen have gained against most other low-yielders.

The Euro (1.4820) saw an overnight low near 1.4770 while the Aussie (0.9125) continues to dip and may test 0.9070 before it recovers. The Pound (1.6360) has bounced slightly after last week's dive leading to a low of 1.6250 on Monday. Further losses are possible however as the disappointment with the GDP numbers is likely to continue. Dollar-Swiss (1.0215) rose to a high of 1.0250 in the overnight session and may trade a range of 1.0160-0305 today.

Dollar-Yen (91.35) has been falling since yesterday's high near 92.34 and can test 90.70 if the present momentum continues. The Euro-Yen Cross (135.30) is seeing a sharp decline over the last three days. Some Support is seen at 135.05, but if that breaks, we could be targeting 134.50-00.

In Asia, the non-Yen currencies continue to loose ground, at a slower pace, though. USD-SGD trades near 1.4002 while the Korean Won has weakened to 1192.20. Dollar-Rupee had seen a high near 47.0050 yesterday before closing near 46.9150. The 1-mth NDF trades near 47.08 suggesting a test of 47.10 for Dollar-Rupee today.


INTEREST RATES
3M USD LIBOR was set at 0.28%. The yields have corrected sharply after having traded higher all thorough last week and this week. The 2Y and 10Y yields have corrected nearly 9-10 bps to quote at 0.93% and 3.47% respectively.

Just a quick view of the US Treasury market: US marketable debt stands at a record $7.01 tln, the budget deficit has increased to a record $ 1.42 tln in the fiscal year ended Sept 30. (Source: Bloomberg)

The RBI in its meeting had retained both the Long term and Short term indicative rates. The Bank Rate at 6%, the repo and the reverse repo at 4.75% and 3.25% respectively. The CRR too was retained at 5%. The RBI took cognisance of increasing inflation and assured that it is mindful of its fundamental commitment to price stability.


DATA TODAY
AU CPI
...Actual 1.0%...Previous 0.5%

14:00 GMT Sep US New Home Sales
...Expected 443K...Previous 429K

12:30 GMT Sep US Durable Goods Orders
...Expected 1.2%...Previous -2.6%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usdur.shtml


DATA YESTERDAY
RBI Repo Rate
...Actual 4.75% ...Previous 4.75%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/inrbi.shtml

RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Actual 3.25%...Previous 3.25%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/inrbi.shtml

RBI CRR
...Actual 5.00%...Previous 5.00%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/inrbi.shtml


 

 

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