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Wednesday October 28, 2009 - 09:40:20 GMT
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GVI Forex Discussion Points 28 October 2009 Morningfrom... GVI Forex Discussion Points
Iâ€™m not a great forecaster, but the EURUSD is trading now exactly where I expected it would be at this hour. If I had traded it I would have made nothing as it is unchanged. The market now needs to decide if the pair is headed higher or lower from here, but I donâ€™t think the market knows what to do. One hint might be coming from the lower USDJPY. The only supporting argument for the unit seems to be that it is oversold. That view is paired with a perception that equities are overbought and are in need of consolidation. This is an important time, as we will soon see if central banks will come in as sellers in size on the USD bounce. The USD will remain the carry trade financing currency as long as Fed policy remains excessively expansive.
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