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Wednesday October 28, 2009 - 10:23:42 GMT
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Forex Blog - European market Update: Risk Aversion continues to simmer as Germany's SAP guides lower, ArcelorMittal misses revenues estimates

Wednesday, October 28, 2009 5:58:06 AM

 European market Update: Risk Aversion continues to simmer as Germany's SAP guides lower, ArcelorMittal misses revenues estimates

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (MA) Malaysian Central Bank leaves Overnight rate unchanged at 2.00%; As expected
- (GE) German Sept Import Price Index M/M: -0.9% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -11.0% v -10.7%e
-(FI) Finland Sept Prelim Retail Sales- Volume Y/Y : -1.4% v -2.2%e -
- (GE) German Oct CPI-Saxony M/M: -0.1% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.3% prior
- (SP) Spanish Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y: -3.4% v -4.0% prior, Adj Real Retail Sales: -3.4% v -3.3%e
- (SW) Swedish Oct Consumer Confidence: 7.5 v 6.0e; Economic Tendency: 94.8 v 93.0e
- (SW) Swedish Q3 Manufacturing Confidence: -12.0 v -17.1e
- (SW) Swedish Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.2% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 3.0%e
- (IT) Italian Oct Business Confidence: 77.1 v 75.1e; Retailer's Confidence: 93.4 v 95.4 prior; Services Survey: -7 v -5 prior
- (NO) Norwegian Aug Unemployment Rate (AKU): 3.2% v 3.1%e
- (GE) German Oct CPI - Brandenburg M/M: 0.0% v -0.3% prior, Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.4% prior
- (GE) German Oct CPI - Hesse M/M: 0.0% v -0.5% prior, Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.8% prior
- (SA) South African Sept
CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 6.1% v 6.3%e
- (GE) German Oct CPI -North Rhine Westphalia M/M: 0.1 v -0.3% prior, Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.3% prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/C
OMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
-In equities: European equity markets have continued their negative tone that has broadly dominated this week's range. In addition to negative sentiment emanating from the
US consumer confidence number and the financial sector (due to break up, regulatory, Irish and larger macro concerns), weight has been added during the session by disappointing earnings figures. The most disappointing Q3 results came from German software firm SAP [SAP.GE] that not only missed its expectations, but cut its full year sales guidance. Other earnings misses included TomTom [TOM2.NV], and ArcelorMittal [MT.NV] (which beat on net but missed rev). Financial and Tech names were leading movers through the European morning with ING [INGA.NV] continuing its declines following yesterday's late session suspension on technical issues. Markets moved lower through the session and traded below the -1% line by 5:30EST

-In individual earnings: ArcelorMittal [MT.NV] Reports Q3 Net $903M v $58Me (unclear if comp), Rev $16.2B v $18.9Be. || SAP [SAP.GE] Reports Q3 Net €435M v €486Me, Rev €2.5B v €2.6Be; FY09 software sales outlook lowered. || BG [BG.UK] Reports Q3 Net £474M v £444Me, Rev £2.25B v £2.03Be. || AstarZeneca [AZN.UK] Withdraws regulatory submission of Zactima. || TomTom [TOM2.NV] Reports Q3 Net €31M v €33Me, Rev €365M v €377Me. || Heineken [HEIA.NV] Reports Q3 Rev €4B v €4Be, raises full year profit forecast. || BancoSantander [SAN.SP] Reports Q3 Net €2.2B v €2.2Be, Rev €10B v €10Be. ||

- Speakers: ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo commented that the ECB would progressively withdraw extraordinary stimulus measures. He reiterated the view that price stability would be taken into account along with market situation. He stressed that the lack of labor market reform would make exit process difficult in some countries when the ECB does begin to raise interest rates ||Japan Fin Min Fujii commented that the Government to take note of JGB market concern in its budget matters. He did note that rising JGB yields reflected concerns over potential debt failures . He noted that one cannot allow Japan Post savings to be used as a 'piggybank' for the Gov't spending and it was proper for Japan Post to reduce investment in JGBs || ECB Oct Bank lending survey highlighted that banks tightened credit standards less aggressively in Q3. Net demand for company loans fell less in Q3 v Q2, while Net demand for housing loans increased in Q3 sequentially. Survey signaled a potential turning point in credit trend but tightening remained substantial ||

- In Currencies: The USD was mixed against the major pairs but held a steady tone during the European morning. Risk appetite has been damaged over the last couple of sessions and this has helped the USD and JPY over the last two sessions. The EUR/USD dipped back below the 1.48 level with dealers again citing some concerns over the health of the financial sector. The JPY gained against the majors with USD/JPY probing below the 91 handle and EUR/JPY Fears over renewed capitalization needed in Irish banks circulated among the dealing desks. The Independent also reported that Lloyds, RBS, and Northern Rock would be broken up, with parts sold off, and 3 new banks to be created. Dealers ponder if the USD would remain the carry trade financing currency as year-end approaches, particularly if the effects of past stimulus measure wear off.

- Fixed Income: With little data to digest European government bonds are trading strongly in reponse to yesterday's moves in treasuries and in a climate of risk aversion. Attention shifts to
Germany where the Bundesbank will tap up to €5B in 5 OBLs and up to €2b in linkers in a matter of minutes. Ge Capital has launched a GBP denominated 11 year with price talk at 220bps over gilts

- In Energycommodities: China Sovereign Wealth Fund Chief Lou stated that the CIC had invested about 50% of available funds and increased investments in commodities and real estate. He did note of some small asset bubbles developing. CIC Has invested mainly in publicly traded assets andi nvestment returns so far this year "not bad". Seeking financial returns , not corporate control and that the CIC has about $110B for overseas investment.

*** NOTES ***
- Risk appetite has been damaged over the last couple of sessions
- Aus CPI pauses the current thinking on RBA and AUD currency. Tsy's Swan plays down inflation as trigger to raise rates.
- Germany's SAP guides lower, ArcelorMittal misses revenues estimates
- U.S. Treasury is in talks with GMAC about a possible third cash infusion, adding to the USD 12.5B it has received to date

***Looking Ahead:
- More Key US earnings expected in session with COP, GD, GT, HES, IP, Q, SO, WLP expected before the bell
- (GE) German Oct CPI -North Rhine Westphalia M/M: No est v -0.3% prior, Y/Y: No est v -0.3% prior
- (GE) German Oct CPI M/M: 0.1%e v -0.4% prior, Y/Y: 0.0%e v -0.3% prior
- (GE) German Oct CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1%e v -0.5% prior, Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.5% prior
- (PD) Polish Interest Rate Decision: no change expected, current Base Rate is 3.50%
- 7:00 (GE) German Oct CPI - Bavaria M/M: % v % prior; Y/Y: % v % prior
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 23rd: No estimates v -13.7% prior
- after 7:30: Expect Daily Libor fixing
- 8:30 (US) Sept Durable Goods Orders: 1.0%e v -2.6% prior, Durables ex Transportations: 0.7%e v -0.3% prior
- after 9:00am Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 9:00 (NO) Norwegian Interest Rate Decision: 25bps hike to 1.50% is expected
- 10:00 (UD) Sept New Home Sales: 440Ke v 429K prior, M/M; 2.6%e v 0.7% prior
- 10:30 (US) DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
- 11:00 (UK) BoE reverse auction
- 13:00 (US) Treasury's $41B 5y note auction

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
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01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
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