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Wednesday October 28, 2009 - 12:18:51 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 26/10/2009Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 28, 2009
The U.S. Department of Labor will publish the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report tomorrow (Oct 29).
The report is a measure of the number of people who file for
unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This
data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the
job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer
people being hired.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for
the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as
positive/bullish for the USD.
Analysts predict last weekâ€™s measure of 531.00k to drop to 520.00k
In agreement with the negative technical outlook we talked about in
yesterday's report, the Euro stopped at the first resistance in the
report 1.4927 with great accuracy (yesterday's high 1.4926), then
dropped breaking the support 1.4861, and reached the first target of
that break 1.4771 with great accuracy as well (yesterday's low 1.4769).
We still favor more downside movement, which is an expectation built on
the negative technical outlook after breaking 1.4992, but we should not
neglect the rising probability of an upward correction for the drop
from 1.5061, which reached almost 300 pips so far. Short-term support
is provided by the rising trendline from yesterday's low, currently at
1.4801, and breaking it would mean a continuation of the sharp drop, in
order to break 1.4771, and target Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole up move
from 1.4480, at 1.4702. Short-term resistance is 1.4844, and breaking
it would target the area between 1.4881 & 1.4949. If the negative
outlook is to persist, the later (1.4949) should hold.
â€¢ 1.4801: the rising trendline from yesterday's low on the intraday charts.
â€¢ 1.4760: Oct 13th low.
â€¢ 1.4702: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 1.4480.
â€¢ 1.4844: Monday's low.
â€¢ 1.4927: Fibonacci 38.2% for yesterday's drop.
â€¢ 1.4978: Fibonacci 61.8% for yesterday's drop, and the most important resistance for the time being.
The Dollar-Yen stayed below the resistance 92.27, broke the support
91.98, and reached the first target for this break 91.26 successfully.
With this down move, we are getting closer to the bottom of the rising
trend channel on the hourly chart, currently at 90.76, making it
support of the day. Staying above it, would give this pair a chance to
correct the drop from Monday's high 92.31, creating a correction that
could reach 91.84, the most important resistance for the short-term. We
believe that the borders of the current area are support 90.76 and
resistance 97.84, and before breaking any of them, it would be
difficult to predict the next move's direction. And we believe that the
direction of that move will be the direction of the break. If we break
support 90.76, that would mean we broke the rising trend channel, and
the trend for the short and medium terms, and that would take the price
close to 90 again. On the other hand, breaking resistance 91.84 would
mean that the drop from Monday's high is over, and that we are on the
way to 92.52-58.
â€¢ 90.76: the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly.
â€¢ 90.06: Oct 20th low.
â€¢ 89.61: Oct 12th low.
â€¢ 91.54: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
â€¢ 91.84: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, the most important resistance for now.
â€¢ 92.52-92.58: previous well known resistance area.
Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all
investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable
for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial
resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.
Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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