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Tuesday February 15, 2005 - 00:23:55 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 15th February 2005

Price: 105.06

Resistance: 105.23 ... 105.44 ... 105.81 ... 106.00
Support....: 104.80 ... 104.59 ... 104.25 ... 103.64

Bias: Cautiously we prefer a bullish scenario but we may need to allow for a dip to 104.25

Bullish: It is possible that the 105.64 low has satisfied the pullback. However, this is not yet confirmed and requires a break first above 105.23 and then 105.44. If seen then we would feel more confident about a move higher towards the 106.00-32 area at least. Further resistance is at the 106.84 high. Ideally 104.80-00 should support while the directly bullish scenario is valid. Below 104.80 threatens the 105.59 level and probably 104.25 before higher.

Bearish: Loss of 105.12 allowed the pullback to reach just above the 104.59 support. Although it is possible that this has satisfied the correction, until 105.23-44 has been breached we do need to be careful of a final dip to the 104.25 area. A break below 104.80-00 signals and should trigger the move to 104.25. Cautiously we feel this will hold. Further support is then found at 103.40-64.

Elliott Wave Comments:

14th February 2005

The reversal from 106.84 required us to adjust our wave count last week. The first thing to note is that the 106.84 peak only 8 points away from a 38.2% retracement of the 111.71 -> 101.82 decline. This could imply a flat correction from the 101.82 low and thus suggest a new low in Wave [v] which should reach 99.65-100.26 at least and possibly 98.71. A break of 104.59 would raise this threat.

What we did note was that from the 103.48 low the 106.82 level was implied as an internal Wave v. This peak also represents an approximate extension of Wave [a] by 138.2%. Then we have to clarify the initial rally and while our preference was for 103.90 to be the Wave [i] peak we can generate a count that calls for the 104.30 peak to be Wave [i] and this would imply the 106.84 area as a target for Wave [iii].

Thus we require a break level that will give a warning of a larger move lower. The first lies at the 50% retracement of the (adjusted) Wave [iii]. This rests at 104.59 and thus we use this as the downward signal. The second is at 104.25 which represents a 50% retracement of the rally from 101.67 to 106.84 which, having developed in 5 waves could well be merely Wave [a] higher.

We should also consider Elliott Guidelines which suggest that after a short but deep Wave [ii] we would expect a shallow and long Wave [iv]. The decline from 106.84 has reached back down to the prior Wave (iv) and we also see a 38.2% retracement at 105.12. Thus while a bullish stance is more valid we feel that a period of range trading is probable above 105.12 and lasting around 3-5 days. This correction could be any of a flat, expanded flat of triangle and we need to see the next price development to begin to make a reasoned judgment.

15th February 2005

The drop to 104.64 may have satisfied the 104.59 Fibonacci retracement target but we also need to be on our guard for a dip to 104.25. With cycles positive we do prefer a more supportive stance but before we see any further significant gains a move above 105.44 and then 106.32 needs to be seen. This could provide a high in a triangle scenario while we aslo need to be aware of the risk of a flat or expanded flat which could take price to 107.28-35.

(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005

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