Flight to Safety Helps Boost U.S. Dollar and Treasuries
The U.S. Dollar rallied for the fifth straight day and
equities fell for the fourth straight day as investors blew out of higher risk,
higher yielding assets.
Equity markets fell sharply as traders are cashing in on the
six-month rally on the perception that central banks may begin to pull out of
their stimulus programs.A weaker than
expected new home sales report also encouraged selling pressure as traders are
now beginning to fear the possibility of a double-dip recession.
The December E-mini S&P 500 took out a key retracement
area at 1056.75 to 1047.00.This area is
likely to become new resistance.If the
market can regain this price zone then look for the start of a vicious rally to
1070.00.In my opinion, there is still
one strong rally left in the tank as bearish traders will want to get short at
a higher price by setting up a secondary lower top.
Treasury futures rallied again today.The break in equities and commodities is
driving investors to the December T-Bonds and T-Notes in search of a safer but
lower yield. The auction today went off without a hitch.Tomorrowâ€™s auction is also expected to show
considerable interest.Despite talk of
Dollar losing its status as the worldâ€™s reserve currency, there has been no
sign of left up of foreign demand during this weekâ€™s auctions.
The U.S. Dollar rallied sharply higher as higher yielding
currencies fell sharply.The December
Euro and December Canadian Dollar were hit hard as traders felt crude oil and
equities.The December British Pound
traded flat while repatriation drove the December Japanese Yen sharply higher.
December Gold fell sharply as the Dollar strengthened.This market finally retraced 50% of its last
rally to $1028.80.The bounce off this
level was minimal which suggests that a failure at this level could trigger a
further decline to $1018.00.Oversold
conditions could attract short-covering with $1043.00 the next likely upside
Higher than expected gasoline inventories, and a stronger
Dollar helped to tank December Crude Oil on Wednesday. Speculation, higher
equity markets and a weaker Dollar helped bring this market up, and will now be
contributing factors to its decline.The
chart pattern suggests plenty of room to the downside with a break to 73.00 to
71.70 very likely over the near-term.
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