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Forex Blog - European Market Update: IMF optimistic on pending Asian region recovery and offsets recent risk aversion ahead of US GDP data

Today 05:56am EST/09:56am GMT

European Market Update: IMF optimistic on pending Asian region recovery and offsets recent risk aversion ahead of US GDP data

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) cuts Refi rate by 50bps to 9.50%; in line (8th rate cut since April)

- (RU) Russian Gold & Forex Reserves w/e Oct 23rd: $429.3B v $423.4B prior

- (SA) South Africa Sept PPI M/M: -3.2% v-2.2%e; Y/Y: -3.7% v -2.5%e

- (SP) Spain Aug Total Housing Permits M/M: -53.3% v 22.5% prior; Y/Y: -45.3% v -44.3% prior

- (HU) Hungarian Sept unemployment Rate: 10.3% v 10.1%e

- (SP) Spanish Oct Prelim CPI - EU Harmonized: -0.6% v -0.7%e

- (DE) Danish Sept unemployment Rate: 4.1% v 3.9%e

- (SW) Sweden Aug Wages - non-Manual workers Y/Y: 2.7% v 3.0% prior

- (GE) German Oct Unemployment Change: -26K v +15Ke; Unemployment Rate: 8.1% v 8.3%e

- (GE) German Sept Machine Orders M/M: -43% v -43% prior; Y/Y: -33% - VDMA

- (NO) Norwegian Oct unemployment Rate: 2.6% v 2.7%e

- (NO) Norwegian Sept Retail Sales M/M: -1.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.2%e

- (IT) Italian Sept Hourly Wages M/M: 0.7% v 0.3% prior, Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.4% prior

- (SA) South African Q3 Unemployment Rate: 24.5% v 23.6 % prior

- (UK) Sept Net Consumer Credit: -£0.3B v -£0.2Be; Net Lending: £0.9B v £0.8B

- (UK) Sept Mortgage Approvals: 56.2K v 53.6Ke

- (UK) Sept Final M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.8% v 0.7% prior, Y/Y: 11.6%v 11.3% prior

- (EU) Oct Business Climate Indicator: v -1.90e; Consumer Confidence: v -18; Economic Confidence: v 84.4e

- (IT) Italian Aug Large Company employment: % v -1.8% prior


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/C
OMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- Equity: European equity markets have been swamped by a distorted and confused volume of corporate earnings that have included significant misses, mediocre performers and top line smashers. On the back of this sentiment and the negative trend that flowed out of
Asia, market opened to the downside before sharply rallying 15 minutes into the session. Positive financial comments out of Standard Chartered [STAN.UK] followed by a further Russian Central Bank rate cut at this time fueled the rally. Earnings in the premarket and yesterday's post-market included all sectors (financial, industrial, chemical, travel, auto, consumer discretionary). Energy names continued their solid performance with ENI [ENI.IT] and Shell [RDSA.UK] in line, both names rolled over on the open, however. Auto names including heavy truck maker MAN Ag [MAN.GE] and VW [VOW.GE] traded higher off their reports. BASF [BAS.GE] continued its cautious macro tone and added further CIBA integration costs, shares traded lower. Press speculation that Lloyd's would be granted approval for its £25B capital raise broke that firms multi-day decline and sent it and RBS [RBS.UK] to the top of the FTSE100. Into 5:30EST, equities are mixed, trading near the unchanged mark expected a plethora of US corporate reports, and the highly anticipated Advanced US Q3 GDP release.


-In individual earrings: VW [VOW.GE] Reports Q3 Net €172M v €212Me, Rev €26B v €26.4Be; Reiterates expectations that FY09 Rev will come in down y/y. || Shell [RDSA.UK] Reports Q3 Net $3.25B v $2.8Be, Rev $76B v $55.8Be, declares dividend of $0.42/share. || Kazakhamys [KAZ.UK] Reports Q3 production: On track to meet FY target of copper cathode equivalent output of 315kt. || BASF [BAS.GE] Reports Q3 Net €237M v €401Me (unclear if comparable), Rev €12.8B v €12.8Be; Guides Q4 income down q/q v Q3. || Man [MAN.GE] Reports Q3 Net €4M v €34Me, Rev €3.1B v €2.9Be. || Henkle [HEN.GE] Reports prelim Q3 adj EBIT €385M v €307Me, Rev €3.49B v €3.54Be. || Aixtron [AIXA.GE] Update: Reports 9-month Rev €185M -4% y/y; Guides FY09 higher; Announces capital increase. || Continental [CON.GE] Reports Q3 adj EBIT €413M v €182M (unclear if comp), Rev €5.3B v €5.1Be; Guides Q4 EBIT and Rev level higher on y/y comps. || Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] Confirms Q3 Net €1.4B v €821Me (as given Oct 21), Rev €6.7B v 6.8Be; Remain well prepared for crisis; reached 'framework agreement' with Sal Oppenhiem. ||
ENI [ENI.IT] Reports


- Speakers: IMF present its Asian Region outlook and noted that the region was rebounding fast from depths of credit crunch. The IMF stated that
Asia must maintain fiscal support amid sluggish export outlook. It forecasted Asian region 2010 GDP growth at 5.8% from the 2.8% level expected in 2009. Asia must ensure its support does not stroke inflation and noted that maintaining the balance between support and inflation might be difficult. G7 households and businesses 'hobbled' by global crisis legacy and commented that G7 demand for Asian export might remain weak || Moody's placed Greece's "A1" sovereign rating on review for possible downgrade. The deterioration of the fiscal position raises serious questions about the sustainability of Greek public finances and the problem will be compounded by a less favorable global economic environment going forward || Moody's changed Portugal sovereign outlook to negative from stable. Action reflected both the structural economic challenges facing the country, which have been exacerbated by the global crisis, and the apparent lack of motivation for policymakers to address them. || Chinese Trade official Chen: US import limits will not solve trade imbalance, US and China will jointly oppose protectionism || ECB's Quaden reiterated the central bank view that the economic recovery to remain fragile and that inflation was likely to stay weak in coming months. He noted that the conclusions for monetary policy were 'obvious' || EU's Verhuegen: China has a competitive advantage from low CNY rate; G20 should discuss artificially low currencies


- In Currencies: The USD retraced some of its recent strength against the Euro and Swiss currencies during the European morning. Dealers noted that European stocks did not fall as much as initially feared and the comments from the IMF on the Asian region outlook helped to sooth the recent spat of risk aversion. EUR/USD trading in the mid 1.47 neighborhood about 40 pips higher from its opening level in
Tokyo. GBP/USD re-tested above the 1.64 level. Dealers noting that market chatter of perhaps more BoE QE measures seem to be offset by the potential M&A flows. Overall dealers noted that the dollar's price action was once again highly correlated to the equity market sentiment.


- Fixed Income: European peripheral government bonds are weaker versus bunds following Moody's action on
Portugal and Greece. Greece's ratings were put on review for a possible downgrade while Portugal was cut to negative from stable. The Greek 10y is 5bps wider on the day at 142bps, while the Portuguese 10-year is at bunds +57bps. The Italian 10y BTP is also 5bps wider at Bunds +85bps with up to €5B in reopenings of 2012 and 2020 BTP's imminent. Treasuries are pretty much unchanged,as are Gilts, having made up a little lost ground following the biggest increase in Mortgage Approvals since March 2008.


- In Energycommodities:
Iraq rumored to sign initial agreement for the Zubair Oilfield Eni consortium on Nov 1st || Iran replaced the head of its state oil company as Ghoamhossein Bayat will replace Adel Nejadsalim.


*** NOTES ***

- IMF:
Asia leading the world out of recession

- US Q3 GDP data :
Most street forecasts range between +3.0% and +3.5%. Traders sense that the rise in GDP being attributed to the "cash for clunkers" program and pondering if the release would be an opportunity to sell stocks. Note US payroll data only a week away with the last positive read seen back in Dec 2007 (some 22 months ago)


***Looking Ahead: U.S. GDP data

- 7:10 (GE) ECB's Weber

- 9:30 (US) Treasury's Geithner

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Sept Industrial Product Price M/M: -0.2%e v +0.5% prior, Raw Materials Price Index M/M: -0.5%e v 3.7% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q3 Advance GDP Q/Q: 3.2%e v -0.7% prior, GDP Price Index 1.4%e v 0.0% prior, Core PCE Q/Q:1.4%e v 2.0% prior, Personal Consumption: 3.1%e v -0.9% prior

- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Oct 24th: 523Ke v 531K prior, Continuing Claims: 5.905Me v 5.923M prior

- 11:00 (US) Fed coupon pass

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $31B in 7 year notes

 

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