Tuesday February 15, 2005 - 10:04:49 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session, 15/2/2005
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil is trading around the $47.5 level, a bit up with respect to yesterday’s levels. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average barely moved and still is capped by 10.800.
Forex Technicals at a glance
Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.2980 level. Almost flat with respect to yesterday’s opening levels, but we have the pair above the 20-day moving average now. Next resistance level is 38.2% fibo retracement level of the current downleg around 1.31, and next is the 50-day moving average. A break of the 1.29 level is needed for the downtrend to resume. My H&S theory, which was almost completed feb 6th, disappeared in the air right the day it had to be given the confirmation (feb 7th), so the break of the aforesaid level is needed to give the bullish USD picture a new boost.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2594. We have a bearish cross from the 2 shorter moving averages for some time now, with the 20-day down the 50-day. Pair is now above the 20-day moving average.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Positive. Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Positive.
Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8885 level. Pair is just shy of the 50-day moving average, which should hold if the bearish momentum wants to resume for the pair. If it does not hold, it will prove the current downtrendline break valid and could change the picture in the short term. The 50-day moving average coincides with the 38.2% retracement level of the current downleg, so I expect there to be good offers waiting.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8442. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now. Pair is above the 20-day now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Positive (signaled long feb.11, 2005). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Neutral-Positive.
Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1945 level. The break of the 20-day moving average opens the door for the 1.19 support level magnet to work. Pair is vulnerable and I would expect a good rebound from the support level to give the USD new and fresh air to move to the upside again.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2205. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago. Pair is below the 20-day now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Negative (no signal). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Negative.
Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6880 level. More or less range-trading yet again and in no-man’s land, and unless either 0.6850 or the 20 & 50 moving averages are broken we may well be seeing this uncertainty for some time. Dwontrend line comes in today around 0.6930, far from current levels again today.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6825 today. We have a bearish cross from the 2 moving averages and pair is trading below them both.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral.
Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
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