As U.S. GDP Improves, Investors Shift Interest Back to Higher Yielding Assets
U.S. GDP improved to 3.5%.This figure marked the first gain in over a year and was better than
pre-report guesses of 3.2%.Trader
appetite for risk soared after the report was released.
The EUR USD is in an uptrend and rallying strong today.Expectations are for a test of 1.4873 to
1.4918 before new sellers surface.This
currency pair is also in a position to post a bearish closing reversal.
The GBP USD showed the most strength for the second day in a
row.This surprised traders who felt
more downside was likely following last weekâ€™s release of a bearish U.K. GDP
number.Many traders had been looking
for lower markets in anticipation of increased quantitative easing by the Bank
of England.The strong rally today took
out a minor retracement zone and now has this market in a position to test the
recent top at 1.6691.
The Dollar gained ground against the Japanese Yen.The bullish GDP number helped turnaround the
USD JPY which came close to turning the trend down after yesterdayâ€™s huge
sell-off.Look for the USD JPY to take a
run at 91.28 to 91.53 over the short-run.
The USD CHF is retraced most of this weekâ€™s gains.Based on the range of 1.0032 to 1.0285,
traders should look for the current break to test a retracement zone at 1.0158
to 1.0129 over the near-term.Since the
main trend on the daily chart is now up, buyers are likely to step in at this
retracement zone.If buyers donâ€™t show
up, then look for a retest of the low for the year at 1.0032.
Stronger commodity and equity prices are helping to put
pressure on the USD CAD.Overbought
indicators are also contributing to the weakness as well as increased demand
for higher risk assets.If weakness
prevails the rest of the week, then look for a test of an uptrending Gann angle
News that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest
rates unchanged and hinted that they wouldnâ€™t hike until after the middle of
next year has been set aside by traders as the focus has shifted back to demand
for higher yielding assets.Todayâ€™s
rally looks strong enough to test a resistance cluster at .7395 to .7398 over
the next few days.
The AUD USD moved higher on increased demand for higher
yielding assets.In addition, many
traders are taking profits and covering shorts as technical indicators showed a
short-term overbought market.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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