Friday October 30, 2009 - 03:39:01 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 30-Oct-2009 - 0335 GMT
The US equities surged yesterday. The Dow (9962.58) was up 2.05% after three days of continuous correction. The euphoria was back on the streets after the US GDP numbers at 3.5% p.a. vis-a-vis expectations of 3.2%. The quarterly GDP numbers turned green once again after 4 consecutive quarters.
The Asians too are doing well today after a long correction during the first half of this week. The Support sighted on Nikkei (10015.28) at 9800 for this week has held. The Sensex (16052.72) had fallen another 1.5% yesterday making it 4.5% for this week already. For today, the cues are mixed. The global stocks do show positive cues but Reliance Industries' Q2 numbers came as a disappointment after the close of the markets yesterday. The Support at 15800 has held and will have to be watched closely till a rise past 16500.
Crude (80.01) has risen sharply following the better than expected US GDP (3.5%) data released yesterday. With Support in the region 77.50-00, we might expect Crude to continue with the overall uptrend and see a rise towards 82.00-50 in the coming days.
Gold (1046.70) has risen sharply following the better than expected US economic data released yesterday that showed the US GDP grew at 3.5% against the expected 3.2%. A break above 1050 might see a rise towards 1060-65 in the coming days. On the downside Support is seen in the region 1030-20.
Sharp recovery in all "risky" assets overnight, confirming that the fall earlier this week was mere profit-taking. The Euro (1.4845) and Aussie (0.9145) have potential to rise further. The recovery has been aided by the sharp rise in Dollar-Yen (91.30) which has come up from yesterday's low near 90.25 and can rise further.
The Pound (1.6575) too has risen, contrary to our expectation. Dollar-Swiss (1.0180) has come off from yesterday's high near 1.0290 and can fall further towards 1.01. It had come close to "Parity" last week, with a low near 1.0050.
Resuming its longer term downtrend, the USDollar-Sing Dollar pair has come down to 1.3965 from yesterday's high near 1.4059. The Korean Won too has strengthened to 1181 from yesterday's high near 1205 in USD-KRW. Dollar-Rupee had closed lower near 47.21 yesterday from a high near 47.63 and may come down further towards 46.90 today.
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.28%. The yields on US Treasuries have risen after 2 continuous days of slide. The 2Y and 10Y yields were quoting at 0.97% and 3.49% respectively. The Fed completed its seven month long $300 bln Treasury purchase program to check the rise in yields which was hurting the housing market.
09:00 GMT EU Unemp
...Expected 9.7%...Previous 9.6%
12:30 GMT US Sep Personal Income
...Expected 0.1%...Previous 0.2%
12:30 GMT US Sep PCE Price Index M/M
......Expected -0.4%...Previous 1.3%
12:30 GMT CA GDP
...Expected 0.1%...Previous 0.0%
US GDP Q3 '09 (Adv)
...Actual 3.5%...Previous -0.7%
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