Â·Buba president Weber unwilling to continue long-term tender â€śfor too
respite for the dollar
After losing ground for the last three weeks, the dollar now
seems to be getting some respite. EUR-USD, which was over 1.50 at the beginning of the week,
slipped to below 1.47 temporarily, only to recover to around 1.48 towards the
end of the week. Scandinavian and eastern European currencies and also
commodity currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars, the real and
the rand, posted similar or, in most cases, higher losses. The pound sterling
and the yen gained ground against the US dollar; both currencies had already
benefited from dollar appreciation against the euro in the past.
The dollarâ€™s recovery coincides with somewhat lacklustre
trading in equity markets over the last few days. Now that the most important
quarterly earnings reports in the US have been published, there is little impetus to push equities
higher. Many market participants might not be fully convinced about the
sustainability of economic recovery; as the end of the year is approaching, equity
market players could perhaps be starting to contemplate locking in their
The dollar was given a temporary boost on Thursday when US
GDP data for the third quarter was published. The preliminary estimate showed that the US economy grew again in Q3 for the first time after shrinking
for four consecutive quarters by a total of 4%. In the third quarter, real GDP increased by almost 0.9% compared to the previous
quarter, or 3.5% (annualised quarteron- quarter). This is somewhat higher than
The main driver was private consumption, which contributed
2.4 percentage points to growth. Primarily due to an improvement in residential
construction (0.5 percentage points), fixed investment also made a positive
growth contribution again of 0.3 points. The slower pace of decline in inventories
contributed almost one percentage point, and government purchases half a
percentage point. Net exports, on the other hand, shaved off half a percentage
point, mainly due to the sharp increase in imports.
Car purchases were responsible for about half of the rise in
consumer spending and can be put down to the car scrappage scheme, which has now
run out. Excluding car purchases, real GDP would have only grown by 1.9%. The
results in the third quarter are therefore likely to paint a far rosier picture
than is warranted by the underlying economic fundamentals.
Exit strategy comments
by Axel Weber
In a speech on Thursday, Bundesbank president Axel Weber
made some interesting remarks about the ECBâ€™s exit strategy. First of all, he distinguished
between interest rate policy measures, which reflect the macroeconomic
environment and in particular inflation risks, on the one hand, and â€śunconventionalâ€ť
policy measures to provide liquidity on the other. He said the liquidity measures
were a way of neutralising disruptions in financial markets, particularly with regard
to refinancing the banks. When the situation in financial markets eased, these
measures would no longer be necessary, according to Mr Weber.
Axel Weber appears to think that this could soon be the
case. â€śGiven the latest developments on financial markets and the corresponding
stabilization on banksâ€™ refinancing marketsâ€ť, he said, â€śit is inappropriate to continue the current operative regime
without any changes for too longâ€ť. Mr Weber sees the withdrawal of the
unconventional measures as a gradual process. Initially, the very long-term loans to banks could be scrapped i.e.
presumably, 6 and 12 month refinancing operations. The 3-month tender could
also be offered as an interest tender again, but Mr Weber did not mention this.
At a later date, the ECB would stop providing unlimited liquidity within the
framework of its main refinancing operations. And as a third step (if the
macroeconomic environment was right) interest rate changes could be considered.
Presumably, other members of the ECB governing council share
Bundesbank president Weberâ€™s opinion. As far as next weekâ€™s ECB council meeting is
concerned, however, we are still expecting the central bank to restrict itself
to gradually becoming more upbeat in its assessment of the macroeconomic
situation and gently hinting that exit will be necessary â€śat some pointâ€ť. But
in December at the latest, when its commitment to provide unlimited liquidity
runs out, the ECB will have to say to what extent it intends to continue the
Stephan Rieke +49 69 718-4114
Grabbe / Klaus NĂ¤fken
report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and
its affiliated companies (together "BHF-BANK Group") solely for the information
of its clients. The information
and opinions in this document are based on sources believed to be reliable and
acting in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is
made by any member of the BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or
correctness. Opinions and recommendations are given in good faith but without
legal responsibility and are subject to change without notice. The information
does not constitute advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of
suitability would be owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision.
Moreover, you should seek your own advice as to the suitability of an
investment matter mentioned herein. Investors are reminded that the price of
securities and the income from them can go down as well as up and that the past
performance of an investment or a market is not necessarily indicative for
future results. This document is for information
purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities
mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this document is not, and
should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to
buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its officers and
employees may have a long or short position or engage in transactions in any of
the securities mentioned in this document, or in any related securities. This
publication must not be distributed in the United
rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.