U.S. Dollar posted a strong gain after bearish economic reports this morning
The U.S. Dollar posted a strong gain after bearish economic
reports this morning triggered a massive sell-off in U.S. equity markets. Investors were
encouraged to dump higher yielding assets for the safe haven Greenback. Two
different reports indicated a drop in consumer spending and sentiment.U.S. Personal Income was flat but Personal
Spending indicated that consumers are still paying off debt and saving their
money.The drop in the Michigan Sentiment
showed that consumers are still uncertain about the economy mainly because of
fear of losing their jobs.
All of the currencies that moved higher on the bullish U.S.
Third Quarter GDP Report on Thursday gave back their gains. Some even exceeded yesterdayâ€™s lows as selling
momentum was strong all day.This
reaction the day after the GDP Report proves that investors have put this
report behind them and are now looking at the future of the economy.Todayâ€™s reaction shows that investors are
worried that without government and Fed stimulus, the road to recovery will be
Next week investors will have to deal with a Fed FOMC
meeting and the Non-Farm Payrolls Report.Investors expect the Fed to change the language of their statement to
indicate that a hike in interest rates may be coming sooner than expected.The Non-Farm Payrolls Report should show an
increase in jobs lost and an unemployment figure close to 10%.A worse than expected report will make
investors question whether the economic expansion during the 4th Quarter will
be able to meet the 3rd Quarter number.
The EUR USD finished the week lower after posting a new high
for the year on Monday.This closing
price reversal formation indicates the start of a 2 to 3 week break.The GBP USD finished the week on the downside
after showing strength earlier in the week.Traders are speculating that the Bank of England may increase or extend
its asset purchase program.Earlier in
the month it was reported that the U.K. economy had contracted.The stronger Dollar and weaker gold put
pressure on the Swiss Franc all week.The USD CHF has been strong since it was reported that the Swiss
inflation rate rose within target.
The USD JPY finished lower for the week as a shift in market
direction caused Japanese investors to repatriate funds.Late in the week it was announced that the
Bank of Japan will end its corporate bond buyback program.This sent a message to investors that the BoJ
is getting ready to end its stimulus program.The sell-off in the USD JPY changed the trend to down on the daily
chart.Downside momentum indicates that
this market may see a retest of 88.00 over the near-term.
Commodity currencies finished the week lower as demand for
higher yielding assets fell sharply when the Dollar rallied.The AUD USD changed the trend to down on the
daily chart while downside momentum is indicating further weakness should be
expected.A weaker than expected Aussie
inflation number took the wind out of the recent rally early in the week as it
sent a message that the Reserve Bank of Australia would not hike rates by 50 bp
as speculated.Traders who had been
bidding up this market in anticipation of an aggressive rate hike were forced
to pare back their positions.
The NZD USD at first weakened in sympathy with the Aussie
Dollar, but drew selling pressure of its own when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
decided to leave interest rates unchanged.In addition, it said in its statement that interest rates are not likely
to rise until mid-20101.The drop in
commodity prices this week also contributed to the weakness as it indicated
that New Zealand
exports may be down during the 4th quarter.
Weaker equity and crude oil prices helped contribute to the
strong surge in the USD CAD.For weeks
the Bank of Canada had been talking the Canadian Dollar down.It feared that a strong Canadian Dollar would
be detrimental to the economic recovery.The combination of the â€śverbal interventionâ€ť and lower demand for higher
risk assets should continue to support the strong rally in the USD CAD next
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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