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Monday November 2, 2009 - 14:14:44 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 02/11/2009Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 2, 2009
UK traders await the release of the Nationwide Consumer Confidence report tomorrow (Oct 3rd).
The report is calculated from a survey of about 1,000 consumers, and
measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a
leading indicator as it can predict the consumer spending, which is a
major part in the total economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for
the GBP since it points to consumer optimism, while a lower than
expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Analysts forecast an increase on lastâ€™s monthâ€™s figure of 71.00 to 72.00.
The Euro broke the short-term resistance 1.4737, and reached the first
target suggested for this break at 1.4827 successfully. The most
important question for now is this: Is the current rise a corrective or
impulsive move? We believe that the limit separating those two
possibilities is 1.4916, which is Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from
1.5061. And as long as the Euro stays below this resistance it is
considered a corrective rise, while breaking it would announce more
upside movement to come, probably to reach new highs above the last top
1.5061. The first resistance in front of us is 1.4872, and if it is
broken we will head towards the important test of 1.4916, and if this
one is broken we will target 1.4980 first, on the way to higher
targets. Short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from
Wednesday's low, currently at 1.4786, and if broken we will test 1.4702
again, and if this one is broken we will head towards 1.4649.
â€¢ 1.4786: the rising trendline from Wednesday's low on the intraday & hourly charts.
â€¢ 1.4702: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 1.4480.
â€¢ 1.4649: Oct 7th low.
â€¢ 1.4872: Fibonacci 50% for the drop 1.5061.
â€¢ 1.4916: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.
â€¢ 1.4980: Oct 26th low.
As we have expected in Friday's report, Dollar-Yen broke the support
90.75 and reached both suggested targets 90.16 & 89.61
successfully. This drop that started on Thursday and continued into the
new week, was the result of stopping near Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at
9.52, and as you know, stopping near Fibonacci resistance levels is an
evidence that the trend in down. But on the other hand, the
abovementioned drop cashed in 250 pips approximately, which could
create a correction from here. That is why we prefer to wait for a
break of short-term support 89.61 or short-term resistance 90.23 before
talking about the direction of the next move from here. If we break the
support 89.61 the downtrend will continue, and will target 89.07 and
the important 88.64. And if we break Thursday's low 90.23, we will be
heading to a test of short-term Fibonacci 61.8% at 90.68, and only if
it is broken, we will expect a retest of the broken channel at 91.28,
which would be an important test if it happens.
â€¢ 89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
â€¢ 89.07: previous intraday support.
â€¢ 88.64: Oct 9th low.
â€¢ 90.23: Oct 29th low.
â€¢ 90.68: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, important resistance.
â€¢ 91.28: the retest level of the broken channel.
Forex trading analysis by Forexpros â€“ Written by Munther Marji
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all
investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable
for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial
resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.
Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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