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Monday November 2, 2009 - 21:50:24 GMT
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Digging into the Numbers - Construction and ISM
The EUR/USD rebounded significantly following this morning's better than expected data, with the ISM coming in at 55.7. Construction Spending also showed considerable gains. However the ISM number showed no sign of Employment Growth, and the Construction Spending number was boosted by strong Governmental Spending on a Federal, State and Local level. Once again we are seeing a jobless recovery as evidenced by the ISM number, spurred by Government Stimulus Programs. As we have noted a number of times before; Government Stimulus cannot carry on forever, and every dollar spend today is a dollar borrowed from the future. If the consumer doesn't step up spending - and he won't if he doesn't find a job, then these better than expected numbers will be short lived. EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY and GBP/JPY all rallied significantly on the numbers, but this move may prove short lived, as it did after the GDP numbers, as analysts parse the data and see the underlying current. We still believe it is too early for the Fed to change the wording officially in their communiquÃ©. We expect Fed jawboning regarding it, but the action will not happen until the non-farm payrolls numbers show significant strength.
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