Sell-off in U.S. Equities Prompts Late Session Dollar Rally
The U.S. Dollar was generally weaker during the New York session
following the release of a better than expected ISM Factory Report.The report showed that manufacturing was
increasing faster than expected.The
factory index rose to 55.7% in October.This was up from 52.6% in September and above the pre-report estimate of
53%. The only dark spot in the report was the decline in new orders to
58.5%.It was still above 50 which
indicates expansion, but it was down for the second consecutive month.
U.S. Pending Home Sales rose 6.1%.This number beat estimates as first time
buyers rushed to beat the expiration of an $8000 federal tax credit. The Dollar
weakened on this report.
Trading was light and thin throughout the day as the bigger
players decided to stand aside ahead of a number of central bank meetings this
week.Tomorrow the Reserve Bank of Australia holds
its monthly meeting.This is followed by
the U.S. Fed on November 4th.The European
Central Bank and the Bank of England hold their monetary policy meetings on
November 5th.Choppy, two-sided trading
could be featured this week as traders lighten up and adjust positions ahead of
Although the Dollar moved lower as demand for higher risk
assets rose following the ISM report, equities broke during the mid-session,
thereby helping the Dollar to rebound off its bottom.
The EUR USD opened higher and was able to hold on to its
gains at the close.Traders are keeping
this market in a tight range ahead of the ECB meeting on November 5th.This market has held inside of 1.4859 to
1.4684 for the past four days.A
breakout to the upside targets 1.4873 to 1.4918.Weakness could develop under 1.4707.
The British Pound was under pressure the whole day as
traders positioned themselves for the Bank of England meeting on November
5th.Traders seem to be betting that the
BoE will leave interest rates alone but may announce an extension or an expansion
of its asset purchasing program.Currently this market is rangebound between 1.6691 to 1.6250.The mid-point of this range at 1.6470
repelled the market today.The close
under this price indicates weakness.
The USD JPY reversed early session weakness to finish higher
for the day.This market turned around
on the stronger U.S. ISM Factory Report.The short-term range is 87.99 to 92.32.Look for the market to go after the retracement zone of this range at 90.75
to 91.12.A stronger U.S. economy is
bearish for the Japanese Yen.
The USD CHF remains rangebound as it tries to establish a
support base for the next rally.The
main range is 1.0032 to 1.0285 with a mid-point at 1.0158.Look for choppy two-sided trading on both
sides of this price until this market can establish a direction.A breakout over 1.0285 will turn the main
trend to up.
A stronger than expected Chinese ISM number helped boost the
AUD USD overnight.The U.S. ISM number
helped push it even higher during the day session.Traders believe that an increase in Chinese
manufacturing will lead to a potential increase in Australian exports.Tomorrow the Reserve Bank of Australia holds
its monetary policy meeting.Investors
expect to see a 25 basis point rate hike.This has already been priced into the market so the focus will be on the
policy statement.Bullish investors will
want to hear that the RBA is considering another hike in December.The AUD USD has established a short-term
range of .9329 to .8905.The 50% level
of this range stopped todayâ€™s rally at .9117.Weaker equity markets late in the session also helped limit gains.
The NZD USD traded higher during the early part of the New York session but
withered into the close. Downtrending Gann Angle resistance at .7315 held the
market in check throughout the day.Further weakening of this currency pair could trigger a break to .7159
to .7047.Tomorrowâ€™s Australian central
bank meeting could have a spillover effect on the New Zealand Dollar.
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Mon 12 Mar 2018 A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction Tue 13 Mar 2018 A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey AA 12:30 US- CPI A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction Wed 14 Feb 2018 AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction Thu 15 Mar 2018 A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI A 12:15 US- Industrial Production Fri 16 Mar 2018 A 10:00 EZ- final HICP A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
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