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Tuesday November 3, 2009 - 14:23:49 GMT -

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FX Blog- GVI Forex Month Ahead Forex Forecasts for 3 November 2009

US Currency Outlook -- Forex Currency Pairs

Forex Currency Pairs

Forex Forecast of Major Currency Pairs

The Month Ahead Currency Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here

GVI Forex Trading Points -

November 3, 2009


-- Markets in a corrective frame of mind.

-- Broad central bank bias to reduce USD reserves.

-- USD remains carry trade funding currency, and that should not change soon.

-- U.S. administration still favors letting USD slide.

-- Outlook for global economy looking better.

-- U.S. earnings season results and outlook much better than expected.

-- Japanese forex policy less in favor of a strong JPY.

-- Good news for equity markets is bad news for USD and vice-versa.

-- Various PMI indices around the world taking out 50 boom or bust (expansion) line.

-- Big problems still in EU banking system?



-- Slow U.S. economic recovery, but corporate earnings surprise.

-- Administration favors a lower USD.

-- No official rate hikes in the cards, although some excessive ease may be reduced.

-- Bernanke reiterates steady monetary policy.

-- Watch volatile weekly employment data as leading indicator. Pace of recovery in jobs disappointing.

-- Substantial regular U.S. government funding actions ongoing focus.



-- 2Q09 GDP turned positive as expected.

-- New Japanese FinMin Fujii a loose cannon. Steady JPY now desired.

-- DPJ government an unknown quantity.

-- New government USD reserve management plan a question mark.

-- Risk of BOJ direct or indirect intervention if JPY gets too strong?

-- U.S. 2yr note vs. USD/JPY working.


Click on chart for two year history



-- EcoFin (European Finance Ministers) oppose weak USD.

-- Main focus on CNY peg to weak USD.

-- EUR the number one USD reserve alternative (anti-dollar).

-- EUR probably already overvalued. Even Trichet hints at such.

-- German and French 2Q09 GDP positive, but peripheral economies weak (Spain, Ireland, etc.)

-- Talk European banking system still sits on large questionable assets.

-- ECB talks tough but watch what they do, not what they say.

-- Tight EUR/USD to S&P correlation working off and on.



Click on chart for two year history


-- U.K. economic recovery lags the EZ.

-- BOE QE has about run its course?

-- Recent U.K. CPI data still suggest deflation.

-- BOE pushing banks to lend.

-- Bank solvency issues persist.

-- Brown government vulnerable. More conservative government could be seen as GBP positive.



Click on chart for two year history



-- SNB concerned about weakness of the economy, but CHF tied to EUR.

-- Expect SNB intervention at any time to hold EUR 1.50 line vs. EUR.

-- SNB announced explicit 1.50 to1.53 target range for EUR/CHF. .

-- Central bank monetary policy likely to be held steady for a while.

-- SNB also watches TWI in CHF.


Click on chart for two year history


Business Cycle Trades:

-- Crude $80 level in play. Weak USD cited.

-- Gold in favor as USD alternative. All time highs breached. Central Banks buying.

-- Equities a carry trade also.

-- CAD, AUD and NZD business cycle trades come into favor when markets in risk assumption posture.

-- Commodity export economies depend on Chinese demand.



-- BOC has promised to hold rates steady until mid-2010.

-- Early Canadian election unlikely.



-- RBA seen recently selling AUD and buying USD to replenish reserves.

-- RBA tightens twice (total +50bps). Another +25bp rate hike in December possible.

-- AUD/USD to 2-yr note spread working.



-- RBNZ: Support will be needed for some time.

-- Expect to keep OCR at or below the current level through until latter part of 2010.





John M. Bland is an author and co-founder of Prior that, he was a senior forex dealer in a subsidiary of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previously, he was a member of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC. He also worked in international liability management. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a BA in Economics from Berkeley.


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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
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