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Wednesday November 4, 2009 - 11:01:56 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: session was marked by an improvement in risk appetite; focus will be on the FOMC

Wednesday, November 04, 2009 5:59:33 AM

 European Market Update: session was marked by an improvement in risk appetite; focus will be on the FOMC


- (IR) Irish Oct NCB Services PMI: 47.4 v 45.5 prior
- (SP) Spain Oct Services PMI: 47.7 v 46.4
- (IT) Italian Services PMI: 52.2 v 49.3e
- (FR) French Oct Final PMI Services: 57.7 v 57.8e; highest reading since Feb 2008
- (GE) German Oct Final PMI Services: 50.7 v 50.9e
- (EU) Euro-zone Oct Final PMI Services: 52.7 v 52.3e; Composite: 53.0 v 53.0e
- (UK) Oct PMI Services: 56.9 v 55.5e; Highest since Aug 2007
- (UK) Oct Official Reserves (Changes): $ v $1.7B prior
- (EU) Euro-zone Sept PPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -7.7% v -7.7%e
- (MA) Malaysia Sept trade Balance (MYR): 9.3B v 9.7Be

- Equities: European equity markets are attempted a rally on the back of solid earnings reports. Following yesterday's broad negative sentiment, surprisingly strong, yet cautious earnings and commentary from retail, financial and auto names have led the upward market trajectory. In retail, earnings from Next [NXT.UK] and Marks and Spencer [MKS.UK] in the
UK and Adidas [ADS.GE] in Germany led that sector higher. Earnings out of SocGen [GLE.FR] posted a sharp increase in net earnings and served to settle some sector fears that appeared nearly rampant in yesterday's trade. US Sept auto sales, combined with earnings out of Japanese auto name Nissan [NSANY] moved Euro names higher with Nissan partner Renault [RNO.FR] sharply outperforming. With earnings momentum seemingly restored on a positive footing, equities are trading broadly higher despite mixed results from Oct PMI flashes. All sectors on the EuroStoxx50 are trading higher ex Oil and Gas that is weighed by results out of Total [FP.FR] that provided bearish outlook regarding refining margins. Traded volumes have come off their highs with the FTSE and DAX printed below moving averages.

-In individual earnings: Total [FP.FR] Reports Q3 adj Net €1.9B v €1.8Be, Rev €28.8B v €31.0Be. || SocGen [GLE.FR] Reports Q3 Net €426M v €481Me, Rev €6B v €6Be. || Carlsberg [CARLB.DC] Reports Q3 Net Profit DKK1.5B v DKK1.7Be, Rev DKK6.4B v DKK17.7Be; Trims FY09 Rev guidance. || M&S [MKS.UK] Provides interim report: H1 Net £224M v £201Me, Rev £4.3B v £4.3Be; UK LFL Sales -0.9%, dividend at 5.5p/share v 8.3p/shr y/y. || Next [NXT.UK] Provides interim management statement: Q3 SSS -1.3%; Q3 Brand Rev +3.1% y/y. || Solar World [SWV.GE] Reports Q3 Net €16M v €23Me, EBIT €35M v €38Me Rev €232M v €270Me ; Reiterates FY09 forecasts. || Heidelbercement [HEI.GE] Reports Q3 Net €149M (after minorities) v €168Me, Rev €3B v €3.1Be. || Adidas [ADS.GE] Reports Q3 Net €210M v €211Me, Rev €2.9B v €2.9Be. ||

- Speakers: Former Japan MOF Watanabe commented that the USD would remain the key reserve currency. He saw the risk of a double dip recession as unlikely in either
Japan or globally ||Sweden's Central Bank Oct Minutes noted that the economic recovery had begun, but it would be gradual. The decision was a split vote with one member seeking a 25bps cut to zero rates. | UK source: G20 will not have discussions on USD this week

- In Currencies: Overall the focus will be on the FOMC later today and the USD appears to be at a crossroad. As central banks begin their exits from special measures a few dealers thinking Fed must step up to the plate and show action rather than the talk at this time. Following the price action on Tuesday the EUR/USD held the 1.4630 March uptrend line and the danger could unfold of a broadly weaker dollar decline if the F
OMC fails to satisfy the market on its exit measures.
- The dollar was a bit on the defensive in the session. Any potential for an unwinding of the dollar carry trade was not on the radar at this time. Equity markets maintained a steady tone while commodities are higher. The session was marked by an improvement in risk appetite. The JPY was broadly weaker against the major pairs with USD/JPY approaching the 91 handle and EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY rising sharply with big figure gains. Spot gold continued to hit fresh all-time highs in the session as it approached the $1,100/oz
- The GBP was firmer against the majors during the European morning with dealers citing some data was a supportive factor. The
U.K. employment market might be stabilizing after the UK Oct Permanent Placements Index saw a MoM rise.

- Fixed income: With a risk revival en vogue, government bonds have suffered this morning in
Europe ,with yield curves in all three major undergoing bear steepening thanks to long end underperformance. European perhiperals have improved against the Core, with the Italian BTP testing Bunds +80bps, its best levls in months.The DMO sold £2B in 2034 Gilts with a comparatively weak bid-to-cover of 1.53 and yield tail of 0.8pbs and Gilts have subseuqnelty been hit, dragging Bunds and treasuries down along the way. The 10y Gilt yield is now at its highest levels since early August, with no technical factors really in the way between current levels and 4%. Central banks obviously provide a major variable, and with the first of this weeks triumvirate of monetary policy statements due in a matter of hours, the 10y Note yield is 2bps higher at 3.48%.

- In Energy: Total F[P.FR]: Reported Q3 adj Net €1.9B v €1.8Be, Rev €28.8B v €31.0Be. Q3 refinery use rate 82% v 92% y/y ||

- Commodities: Spot gold hits fresh all-time high above $1,090. || Thai Central Bank Gov Tarisa: Have no interest in buying IMF gold

- Geo-political: Reportedly satellite photos indicate that
Iran has increased production at a uranium mine, underscoring the need for wider UN inspections to determine whether the country is trying to build a nuclear weapon. The photos suggest evidence of stepped-up activity at the Gchine mine, near the Persian Gulf coast city of Bandar Abbas

- In the papers: WSJ article noted that the huge stimulus measures from governments and central banks could create problems in real estate, stocks and currency markets, especially in
Asia. Real estate in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Vietnam were specifically mentioned

*** NOTES ***
- European PMI Services data were steady, little market reaction
- Far East equity markets closed mostly better. European bourses are higher
- Markets will be very sensitive for indications that central banks are inching closer to starting their exit strategies. FOMC later today and BOE and ECB on Thursday
- US Mid-term elections draws a yawn but key Dem Gov races. Could Congress turn cautious and more conservative about deficit spending???
- US jobs data will be the focus as well with ADP report this AM, claims on Thursday and Payrolls on Friday
- Spot gold at fresh all time highs near $1,100/oz

- Looking Ahead:
- US Earnings season continues with ADP, AGU, , CMCSA, ENB, EP, EPB, PHM, RIG, TWX, WCG and XTO
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications: No estimates v -12.3% prior
- 7:30 (US Challenger Job Cuts YoY: No estimates v -30.2% prior
- 8:00 (HU) Hungarian Central Bank Minutes
- 8:15 (US) ADP Employment Change: -198Ke v -254K prior
- 10:00 (US) ISM Non Manf. Composite: 51.5Ke v 50.9K prior
10:30 (US) DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories: Crude +1.5Me; Gasoline: +500Ke; Distillate: -500Ke; Capacity Utilization: 82.0%e
11:30 (MX) Mexico Agency to sell 1-year, 3-year and 5-year bonds
14:00 (US) FOMC Rate Decision


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