Wednesday November 4, 2009 - 11:18:16 GMT
Share This Story
Forexpros - www.forexpros.com
Forexpros Daily Analysis - 04/11/2009Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 4, 2009
Initial Jobless Claims to Be Published in the US Tomorrow
The Initial Jobless Claims is a measure of the number of people who
file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given
week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published
as a weekly report.
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the
job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer
people being hired.
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for
the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as
positive/bullish for the USD.
Analysts forecast 520.00K, down from 530.00K.
The Euro broke short-term support 1.4744 and successfully reached the
first suggested target 1.4649. But the point where yesterday's drop
stopped, uncovered a very harmonized channel, and price has touched its
lines a whole 7 times. Yesterday's low was exactly at the bottom of
that channel, as the attached chart shows (hourly chart). We will
monitor this channel to try and specify the direction, and we strongly
believe that if this channel is broken to the downside, the medium-term
price direction will be in a downtrend. The bottom of the channel is
currently at 1.4649 which makes this level the most important support
for the short-term. On the other hand, resistance congregate its power
in one important area, where we find the falling trendline from 1.5061,
the moving average SMA100, and Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at
1.4762 (calculated for the 5 waves dropping from 1.4843 to the orthodox
bottom 1.4631 and not the price bottom 1.4625), which clearly makes
this area the most important of all resistance levels. A break of the
1.4649 support will put the Euro under pressure and that would push it
lower to 1.4559, then the important bottom 1.4480, and later to 1.4404.
While a break of the resistance 1.4762 ill give the Euro a chance to
catch a break and to correct upwards towards 1.4846 and may be 1.4897.
â€¢ 1.4649: the bottom of the coordinated channel on the hourly chart, and the most important support for medium-term.
â€¢ 1.4559: Fibonacci 38.2% for medium-term.
â€¢ 1.4480: Oct 2nd low.
â€¢ 1.4762: important resistance area combining Fibonacci 61.8% for the
short-term, the moving average SMA100, and the falling trendline from
â€¢ 1.4846: Fibonacci 50% for the drop 1.5061.
â€¢ 1.4897: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.
After stopping on Monday, at Fibonacci resistance 90.68 down to the
pip, Dollar-Yen stopped yesterday at the moving average SMA100, with
the same kind of accuracy. And as you know, stopping near Fibonacci
resistance levels (and moving averages as well) is an evidence that the
trend in down. Thatâ€™s why we find ourselves favoring a continuation of
the short-term downtrend as long as we are below 90.68. And we will
await a break of short-term Fibonacci support 90.21. If we break this
support the downtrend will resume, and will target 89.61 first, then
89.07 and may be the important 88.64. The price behavior for the past
two days, and the amazingly accurate reversal at the Fibonacci
resistance (90.68), makes it the most important resistance, and to add
to that, the upper limit of the short-term downtrend (the trendline
drawn on the chart), is currently at the same level. And only if it is
broken, we will change our negative outlook for this pair. If this
surprise happens, we will expect price to reach 91.28 then the
important resistance 91.63.
â€¢ 90.21: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
â€¢ 89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
â€¢ 89.07: previous intraday support.
â€¢ 90.68: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and the falling line of the downtrend, important resistance.
â€¢ 91.28: previous intraday important top.
â€¢ 91.63: a well known support area that contained a number of daily tops and bottoms, the last of which was Oct 29th high.
Forex trading analysis by Forexpros â€“ Written by Munther Marji
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all
investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable
for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial
resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.
Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."