Renewed interest in higher risk assets is
helping to drive up stocks and commodities while pressuring the U.S. Dollar and
interest rate futures. Aggressive traders seem to be betting big that the Fed
FOMC policy statement this afternoon will contain language stating that an
interest rate hike is not likely until at least the middle of 2010.
Stock indices are trading sharply higher
although they have backed off there highs.The December E-min S&P came close to a 50% price objective at
1062.50 before falling back. This price is still todayâ€™s main upside target,
followed by 1071.00.A bearish Fed
report could break the market back to 1041.50.A move through 1026.00 will do serious damage to the market.
December Treasury Bonds and Notes are trading
lower at the mid-session.Traders are
reacting to the possibility the Fed will soften its language in its policy
statement regarding keeping rates low for an â€śextended periodâ€ť.The retracement zone at 118â€™24 to 117â€™18 is currently
holding as support.Things could get
ugly if this area is violated to the downside.
The U.S. Dollar is trading sharply lower at
the mid-session against most currencies with the exception of the Japanese Yen.
Speculators are betting big that the Fed FOMC statement will indicate there
still is time to buy higher risk assets before the Fed begins tightening.
December Gold posted a strong gain
overnight but backed off as it approached $1100.Speculators are still driving this market in
anticipation of more central bank buying.New support has been established at $1072.00.Any news from the Fed that weakens the Dollar
could send gold screaming to the upside. A breakout over $1100 is anticipated,
but a failure to hold this level into the close following a breakout will be a
sign of a short-term top.
December Crude Oil received a boost from a
lower than expected oil inventory report.This news combined with higher equities and a weaker Dollar helped the
market rally back to within striking distance of its high for the year at
81.99.Speculators are still in charge,
but getting much needed help today from the outside markets.
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