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Wednesday November 4, 2009 - 20:14:44 GMT
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Forex Research - Morning Report

Morning Report Thursday 5 November 2009


News and views

Better risk appetite last night was helped by components in the ISM services report, such as that showing new order rose, and speculation the Federal Reserve's (FOMC) meeting shortly will continue to signal record low rates for an extended period. The S&P500 rose sharply at the open and then consolidated, currently up 1.0%. Banking stocks underperformed, down 1.2%. Oil is up 1.1%, a report showing a surprise drop in imports and refineries less active. Gold posted a record high of $1096 on the dollar's weakness. US 10yr notes rose 5bp after Sydney closed.


The US dollar fell to the low end of its weekly range in advance of the Fed meeting. EUR left Sydney at 1.4726 and climbed to 1.4845. Shunning safe havens proved worse for the yen, weakening to 91.00 against the dollar. CAD was subdued by central bank rhetoric, unchanged at 1.0650.


AUD closed the domestic session at 0.9114 and then formed another leg higher to 0.9118.


NZD rose from 0.7200 to 0.7275. AUD/NZD did little, happy to consolidate its recent gains around 1.2540.


The US Fed left rates unchanged at 0-0.25% following this week's FOMC meeting. The statement acknowledged recent better economic data but assessed that "conditions in financial markets were roughly unchanged, on balance, over the intermeeting period", and the conclusion that "economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time" was unchanged from the September statement. The big news of course was that the clause "economic conditions ... are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period" was also preserved in its entirety.


US ISM non-manufacturing slipped by 0.3 pts to 50.6 in October, mainly because of a 3.2 pt decline in the employment index, which took it to its lowest since May. However the activity index edged up slightly and new orders rose to a two year high. Despite the soft jobs news, this report suggests that services will contribute a little more to Q4 GDP growth than in Q3, which looked to be predominantly a factory-driven growth story.


US ADP private payrolls down 203k in Oct, continuing to show an improving labour market, although it has lagged the official payrolls data somewhat. Layoff announcements continued to diminish as well last month. Given these developments, and the weaker ISM non-factory jobs index, we remain comfortable with our forecast for a 150k non-farm payrolls decline (data due Friday night), whereas the various factory surveys earlier this week and late last month had suggested we might need to revise our forecast a little higher (i.e. to a smaller fall).


Euroland Oct services PMI revised higher from 52.3 to 52.6 indicates the Euroland services sector is now more clearly expanding. Also Euroland producer prices fell 0.4% in September, but base effects limited the slippage in the annual pace of decline to 0.2 ppts, to -7.7% yr.


The UK services PMI continues to rise, to 56.9 in Oct, its highest in over two years, adding to the weight of evidence pointing to an end to the recession in Q4 (though the Q3 signals were also persuasive - yet wrong!). In other news, consumer confidence was unchanged last month according to the Nationwide index, and there were no big swings in shop price inflation, which was 0.0% yr in Oct.



AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook today: Yesterday's bounces in these currencies should continue today, barring a hawkish shock from the FOMC. AUD should be supported at 0.9050 and we favour it moving above 0.9120 towards 0.9200. Similarly for NZD which has support at 0.7230 for an advance past 0.7275 towards 0.7300. Events to watch for today are the FOMC at 8:15am (NZT, RBA's Stevens speaking, RBNZ's Bollard speaking, and the NZ employment report.


Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.





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