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Thursday November 5, 2009 - 10:57:45 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Euro-Zone Sept retail sales decline more than forecasts; Key European central banks meetings eyed for exit policy guidance

Thursday, November 05, 2009 5:50:57 AM

 European Market Update: Euro-Zone Sept retail sales decline more than forecasts; Key European central banks meetings eyed for exit policy guidance


- (PH) Philippines Central Bank maintained its Overnight Borrowing Rate at 4.00%, as expected
- (IC) Iceland Sedlabanki cuts its key interest rate by 100bps to 11.00%; more than the 25bps consensus expectations
- (RU) Russian Gold & Forex Reserves: $432.8B v $429.3B prior
- (SZ) Swiss Oct SECO Consumer Climate: -30 v -38e
- (SP) Spanish Sept Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -12.5% v -10.6% last) WDA Y/Y: 12.5% v -12.8%e
- (TA) Taiwan Oct CPI Y/Y:-1.8% v -1.1%e
- (HU) Hungarian Sept Industrial Output M/M: 3.7% v -0.7% prior,
Y/Y -15.0% v -17.9%e
- (SZ) Swiss Oct CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.7%e
- (NV) Netherlands Oct CPI M/M: 0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.6%e
- (NV) Netherlands Oct CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.5% prior, Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.0% prior
- (UK) Sept Industrial Production M/M: 1.6% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: -10.3% v -10.3%e
- (UK) Sept Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.7% v 1.0%e; Y/Y:-9.3 -9.7%e
- (EU) Euro-zone Sept Retail Sales M/M: -0.7% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -3.6% v -2.4%e
- (UK) Oct New Car Registrations Y/Y: 31.6% v 11.4% prior

- Equities: European equities markets gapped down on today's opening as sentiment was driven by a series of disappointing earnings figures out of the financial sector. Shelving yesterday's F
OMC meeting and trading ahead of both BoE and ECB base rate decisions, markets have remained broadly negative despite rallying off session lows flowing UK Sept manufacturing and industrial data. Lower than expected net figures out of insurance sector names Munich Re [MUV2.GE] and Zurich Financial [ZURN.SZ], along with a formal reiteration of disappointing figures from Commerzbank [CBK.GE] led the initial downward trend in the sector (ex BNP [BNP.FR] which reported solid figures). Y/Y comparisons and commentary out of UK listed miner Vedanta [VED.UK] sent that sector lower. Other earnings misses came out of the consumer sector and were headlined by included Unilever [UNA.NV]. Solid figures from Deutsche Telekom [DTE.GE] rallied the telecom sector just as grocer Delhaize [DELB.BE] moved those names higher. Ahead of the vast amount of European central bank speak expected later in the session, markets look unlikely to make further radical upward movements. Trading volumes on the back of earning interest have remained high in Europe. Into 5:30EST, markets have stabilized in a range to the downside of 0.50-0.75%.

-In individual equities: BNP [BNP.FR] Reports Q3 Net €1.3B v €1.1Be, Rev €10.7B v €10.1Be. || Suez Environment [SEV.FR] Reports Q3 EBITDA €1.5B v €1.6B y/y, Rev €8.9B v €9.1B y/y. || Zurich Financial [ZURN.SZ] Reports Q3 Net $909M v $1.1Be, 9 Month Rev $26.3B -10% y/y. || Munich Re [MUV2.GE] Reports 9 Month After-Tax Profit €1.8B, Net Profit €644 v €727Me. || Deutsche Telekom [DTE.GE] Reports Q3 Net €959M v €888Me, Rev €16.6B. || Unilever [UNA.NV] Reports Q3 Net €1.05B v €1.1Be, Rev €10.2B v €10.4Be. || Vedanta Resources [VED.UK] Reports H1 Net $188M v $193Me, Rev $3.0B v $3.1Be, declares interim dividend at $0.175/shr. || Deutsche Postworld [DPW.GE] Reports Q3 Net loss €83M v loss €68Me, Rev €11.2B v €11.8Be; Reiterates expectation for positive FY09 Net figure. || Commerzbank [CBK.GE] Reports Final Q3 Op prof €120M, Pretax loss €1.4B v ; Reiterates expectation for Net loss in FY09. || Cable and Wireless [CW.UK] Provides Interim Statement; H1 EBITDA £463M v £357M y/y, Rev £1.9B v £1.6B y/y; To demerge CWI and WorldWide units. ||

- Speakers:
Australia RBA's Stevens commented that the Australian current account deficit was to rise but that its core inflation to slow in period ahead. Road to economic recovery was underway and added that the recent downturn was one of the mildest in history for Australia. Economy was emerging from slump with less spare capacity than in previous recessions
||Sweden Riksbank's Ingves reiterated the central bank stance that it was not the time to remove stimulus measures. He stressed that interest rates to remain at low levels until late 2010. Both the economy and Financial markets in
Sweden were functioning better but recovery will be slow and take time. Many indicators have bottomed out and forecasted a "V" shape recovery rather than "W" shape. He did note that there was a possibility of further complications. Underlying inflation is around the target rate || Hungarian Fin Min Oszko reaffirmed the Gov't 2009 budget deficit of 3.9% of GDP. He noted that they were in talks with a European Union mission to review the budget || China NDRC's Chen commented that 2010 GDP would be in "double digits" with possibility of hitting 10.5%. he forecasted China's 2009 GDP growth to be less than 9% (compared to official Gov't view of 8.0%). The economic growth cycle was unlikely to stop at two or three years as last cycle of high growth lasted from 2002 to 2007. He believed that 2009 Auto sales in China could possibly surpassing 13M level and added that 2010 sales could surpass the 2009 figures. || China Ministry of Commerce stated that it would resolve US and EU WTO complaints through the proper channels. It noted that it sought to limit resource exports in order to protect its environment and reiterated it stance of opposing protectionism || China Fin Min Official Kang: Central Govt has ordered various ministries to prepare task of managing inflationary expectations || China's PBoC's Grad School Director Jiao: October exports could be positive; Nov and Dec loan growth could surpass Oct levels

- In Currencies: The USD maintained a steady tone in the Europe morning following the FOMC decision on Wednesday. The carry-related theme continues to simmer after the Fed reiterated its stance that interest rates would remain exceptionally low for an 'extended period'. As noted in yesterday
TTN update, the USD sentiment continued to be the focal carry trade funding currency. The dollar's inverse relationship with equity and commodity price action also continues to remain highly correlated. All eyes on the European interest rate decision with both BOE and ECB expected to maintain their interest rates at their current levels. The quantitative easing measure for the BOE will be the main item of interest with dealers eyeing any potential change from the current ceiling of £175B in its asset purchase target (APF). There had been speculation between 25b to £50B more in QE measures from the UK. The Euro will get its main momentum from the ECB press conference and will digest any change in the ECB's wording of its plans to exit from its special measures. Dealers noting that the ECB's likely starting point would be to move away from 100% allocations in its weekly refi tenders at the start of next year.
- The JPY was firmer against the major pairs from its opening levels with dealers continuing to eye the 'massive' 91 strike option expiration said to take place on Friday. Dealer also talk about a large 133 strike rolling off in EUR/JPY as well on Friday.

- Fixed income: Yield curves are steeper on both sides of the channel this morning in
Europe , with bids moving into short dated Gilts and Bunds ahead of pivotal BoE and ECB rate decisions. Withthe FOMc out of the way, Treasuries are outpeorfming in overnight trade, and the 10yr Note yield is back under 3.50%. France sold €8B in a range of OAT's with healthy results. The benchmark on the run 10yr drew a bid to cover above 2, well above the average on the issue. Spain also sold €3.1B in 3.3% 5yr bonds with reasonable results.

- Geo-political: WSJ reported that Israeli Navy seized a cargo ship 100 miles away Israel's Mediterranean coast containing 600 tons of weapons from Iran shipped to Hezbollah

*** NOTES ***
- Euro-Zone Sept retail sales decline more than expected
- European Central bank decisions with BOE and ECB to highlight the activity
- US Senate approved expansion of home buyer tax credit to April and extended jobless benefits (as expected)
- Markets remain in a cautious frame of mind. They could go on the offensive after Friday's data

- Looking Ahead:
- More Key US earnings in session with CI, CAH, DTV, MGM, NDAQ, TWC, WEN expected before the NY equity open. Also monthly Same-store-sales figures for Oct
- (UK) Oct NIESR GDP estimate (0.0% prior)
- (CZ) Czech Central Bank Interest Rate Decision (no change expected from the 1.25%)
- 7:00 (UK) Bank of England Interest Rate Decision: No change expected from the 0.50% level; QE £50B increase to QE expected)
- 7:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision (no change expected from the 1.00% level)
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Sept Building Permits M/M: 1.6%e v 7.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q3 Prelim nonfarm Productivity: 6.5%e v 6.6% prior, Unit Labor Costs: -4.2%e v -5.9% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Oct 31st: 522Ke v 530K prior, Continuing Claims w/e Oct 24th: 5.75Me v 5.797M prior
- 8:30 (EU) ECB's Trichet holds regular press conference following rate decision
- 10:00 (CA) Canadian Oct Ivey Purchasing Managers Index: 58.0e v 61.7 prior
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell C$3.5B in 10y notes


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