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Thursday November 5, 2009 - 11:02:35 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 05/11/2009Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 5, 2009
Unemployment Rate in the US to Be Announced Tomorrow
The Unemployment Rate is a measure of the percentage of the total labor
force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to
work in the US.
A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low
percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in the US and
should be taken as positive for the USD.
Analysts forecast a 9.90% unemployment rate, up from 9.80%.
The Euro broke short-term resistance and reached both suggested targets
1.4846 and 1.4897 successfully. Yesterday's climb stopped 10 pips above
Fibonacci level, then went back to settle below it. That is why this
resistance will keep its importance. Breaking it would send the Euro
above 1.50, or at least close to the dollar and a half mark. The Euro
continued its shine since reaching the bottom of the hourly channel
that we talked about yesterday, and is currently rising inside an
upward rising channel on the intraday charts, with its top at 1.4972, a
level we consider as a first target to a break of 1.4897, and after
that we could see 1.5014. The bottom of the same channel is currently
at 1.4839, and as long as price holds above it (at the moment its only
pips above this level) the potential for more short-term upside works
stays alive. On the other hand a break of the bottom of the channel
indicates that the direction for the short-term has turned down, which
will target 1.4769 first, and may be 1.4701 later. We remind you of the
rate decision of the ECB that will be announced today, and the news
conference for president Trichet that will follow, which usually moves
the Euro violently.
â€¢ 1.4839: the bottom of the rising channel on the intraday charts.
â€¢ 1.4769: Fibonacci 50% for the last rising move.
â€¢ 1.4701: previous important support/resistance area.
â€¢ 1.4897: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.
â€¢ 1.4972: the top of the rising channel on the intraday charts.
â€¢ 1.5014: previous resistance.
Dollar-Yen broke Fibonacci resistance 90.68 and reached 91.28 as we
accepted, with accuracy (yesterday's high 91.30), before retreating
fast. This behavior redefined the rising channel on the hourly chart to
make its bottom at 90.18. And when calculating Fibonacci 61.8%
resistance for the short-term (for the drop from yesterday's high), we
find that it is at the resistance level of 90.90. In case of a break of
either of those levels, we believe price will move in the direction of
the break. If the bottom of the channel at 90.18 is broken, the price
will move down and target 89.61 first, and may be 89.07 as well. While
if we break Fibonacci resistance at 90.90 we expect a rise to surpass
yesterday's high, targeting the important 91.63 first, and only if it
is broken we can expect 92 to appear on the price screens when the
price targets the obvious resistance on the hurly chart 92.17.
â€¢ 90.18: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
â€¢ 89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
â€¢ 89.07: previous intraday support.
â€¢ 90.90: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
â€¢ 91.63: a well known support area that contained a number of daily tops and bottoms, the last of which was Oct 29th high.
â€¢ 92.17: obvious resistance on the hourly chart.
Forex trading analysis by Forexpros â€“ Written by Munther Marji
Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves
substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You
should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light
of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose
all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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