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Thursday November 5, 2009 - 19:18:57 GMT
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GVI Forex Discussion Points 5 November 2009 EveningGVI Forex Discussion Points.. Thursday PM
The ECB and BOE decisions Thursday impacted the markets, but were not terribly surprising. As expected, neither changed policies. As expected, the BOE increased its QE by GBP 25bln. The consensus forecast had been from 0 to +GBP 50 bln. There was a school of thought that the negative 3Q09 GDP print was probably inaccurate and will be erased in subsequent revisions to the data. The ECB suggested that it was probably backing away from its extraordinary 12-month liquidity provisions as of the start of the new year, but that any policy tightening would be very gradual. U.S. weekly jobless figures will not feed directly into Friday‚Äôs employment report, but showed an additional reduction in the number of initial jobless claims. These data are an important part of the overall employment picture. The bias of the market heading into the non-farm payroll report tomorrow seems to be in the direction of a better than expected outcome. This leaves the market at risk to a disappointing report. The markets were in a cautious frame of mind Thursday, but they could go on the offensive after Friday‚Äôs data.
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