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Friday November 6, 2009 - 03:35:48 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 06-Nov-2009 - 0330 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The US equities surged yesterday after better jobless claims numbers made investors optimistic a day ahead of the US Non Farm Payrolls data release. The Dow closed above 10000 surging over 2% and Nasdaq surged nearly 2.5% led by better forecats by Cisco. Technically, the Dow has found some solid Support at 9650 this week and this Support shall have to continue holding, if the rally is to continue.

The Asian indices are rejoicing on global economic optimism. The Nikkei (9827.88) is trading higher by 1.15% after closing 1.3% lower yesterday. The Hang Seng is up over 2% and the Shanghai by early half a percent. Shanghai (3172.32) has broken above the bullish channel on the daily and can rise further up on a break of 3300. The Sensex (16063.90) had risen yesterday amid a volatile trading day. It closed nearly 1% higher after falling over 2% intra-day.

COMMODITIES
Crude (79.97) has fallen and is now trading just below 80. Support is seen in the region 79.00-78.50 which we expect to hold as the broader picture continue to remain bullish. The US monthly jobs report is due today.

Gold (1090.60) is continuing to trade higher. With immediate Support at 1085, we expect a break above the Resistance region 1100-1110 in the coming days and see a rise towards 1150-1200. However, a break below 1085 might pull it down towards the significant Support region 1070-1060.


CURRENCIES
Most currencies (non-USD and non-JPY) have recovered and stabilised this week, possibly preparing for further strength next week. The Euro (1.4866) is likely to trade between 1.4800-4950 through today. The Aussie (0.9122) has moved from 0.8906 earlier in the week. It may trade quiet between 0.9050-9190 today. Dollar-Swiss (1.0170) has Support coming up in the 1.0130-0090 region now, which might hold for some days. Be careful there.

Dollar-Yen (90.60) is trading narrowly in the middle of a wide range of 89.50-91.50, with good chances of whipsawing within this range. Don't look for a trend just now. The Euro-Yen Cross (134.75) has potential to rise towards 136.50. The Pound (1.6590) has been bullish over the last couple of weeks, but now faces an important trend Resistance at 1.6640, which could induce a profit-taking dip towards 1.6450.

In Asia, the Sing Dollar (1.3945) continues to recover and may test 1.3900. The Korean Won (1171.20) is trading at its strongest in more than a week. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 47.02 yesterday. The 1-mth NDF quotes near 46.90. As such there are decent chances of a dip below 47.00 today.


INTEREST RATES
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.28%. The yields on US Treasuries fell marginally yesterday. The 2Y yield fell 2 bps to close at 0.88% while the 10Y yield was flat at 3.53%, thus making the yield curve steeper.

The BoE and the ECB have kept the interest rates unchanged and have signalled end to the stimulus. ECB's Trichet commented that the liquidity operations will be withdrawn and the BoE had slowed the pace of bond purchases. Withdrawl of stimulus would wipe out excess liquidity pumped in over the last 1 year by all the major central banks.


DATA TODAY
12:00 GMT Sep CA Labour Force
...Expected 10.3K...Previous 30.6K

01:30 GMT Oct US NFP
...Expected - 173K...Previous - 263K
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usnfp.shtml


DATA YESTERDAY
Oct Australia Trade Balance
...Actual A$ -1.85 Bln...Previous A$ -1.65 Bln
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/autrbal.shtml

EU Retail Sales
...Actual -0.7%...Previous -0.1%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/euretail.shtml

BOE Mtg
...Actual 0.50%...Previous 0.50%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ukboe.shtml

E-15 ECB Announcement
...Actual 1.00%...Previous 1.00%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/euecb.shtml

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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