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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Markets subdued ahead of US payroll report; EU Commission Report calls for vigilance as protectionist measures are adopted

Friday, November 06, 2009 5:59:28 AM

 European Market Update: Markets subdued ahead of US payroll report; EU Commission Report calls for vigilance as protectionist measures are adopted


- (SZ) Swiss Unemployment Rate: 4.0% v 4.0%e; Unemployment Rate seasonally adj: 4.1% v 4.2%e
- (FI) Finland GDP Indicator: -8.4% v -8.5%e
- (FR) French Sept Trade Balance: -€1.8B v -€3.0Be, Central Gov't Balance: -€126M v -€128M prior
- (RU) Russia Oct Reserves at $434.4B v $430.5Be
- (HU) Hungarian Sept Trade Balance: €486M v €370Me
- (CZ) Czech Sept Trade Balance (CZK) 17.8B v 16.3Be
- (SW) Swedish Oct Budget Balance (SEK): -19.6B v -40.4B prior
- (NO) Norwegian Sept Industrial Prod Manufacturing M/M: 2.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -4.4% v -7.0%e
- (NO) Norwegian Sept Industrial Production M/M: 0.9% v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: -1.2% v 0.0% prior
- (UK) Oct PPI Input M/M: 2.6% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: +0.1% v -1.3%e
- (UK) Oct PPI Output M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.9%e
- (UK) Oct PPI Output Core M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e

- Equities: European markets are seeking to print three consecutive days of positive trading, taking their cue from Australian RBA commentary during the Asian session and continued earnings rotation. Equity market ranges and levels have been erratic as a markets anticipate the release of US non-farm payrolls at 8.30EST. H1 earnings from British Airlines [BAY.UK] posted the groups worst pretax loss since the firm's privatization in 1987. Despite this, the numbers were 'less bad' than some worst case scenarios and shares, along with its European airline peers moved higher. In further 'less bad' news, RBS [RBS.UK] reported its Q3, which showed improvements in its Net loss and loan loss provision figures. Solid figures from German insurance name Hannover Re [HNR1.GE] in contradicted yesterday's disappointing earnings from Munich Re [MUV2.GE]. Into 5:30EST European equity markets trended sharply lower, surrendering the majority of their erratic gains. Health care and oil/gas names are leading under performers on the EuroStoxx 50 on lighter than average trading volumes.

-In individual equities: RBS [RBS.UK] Reports Q3 Operating Loss £1.5B v £1.2Be (3.5B q/q), Rev £7.2B v £7.1Be; Sees FY10 as likely another loss making year. || BA [BAY.UK] Reports H1 Op loss £11d1M v loss £140Me (profit £140M y/y); Rev £4.1B v £4.1Be (£4.8B y/y). || Lafarge [LG.FR] Reports Q3 Net profit €404M v €393Me, Rev €4.3B v €4.6Be; alters FY09 volume targets. || Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] CEO: Sees Q3 results to increase v Q2 (implies to exceed €4.6B). || Hannover Re [HNR1.GE] Reports Q3 Net €159M v €148Me, Net Written Premiums €2.3B v €2.3Be, raises FY forecasts. ||

- Speakers:
China PBoC's Fan commented that the Chinese economic recovery will be sustained and that potential policy changes to depend on the economic conditions. China does not face any problem in achieving 8% growth in 2010. He noted that the Forex reserve diversification process would be gradual and the country needed a managed currency float for the Yuan with no sharp moves. He saw little threat of inflationary pressures. He forecasted that China 2010 exports to grow year on year || RBA Deputy Gov Battellino commented that the country's trade patterns were changing as India and China were important partners to sustain its prosperity . He noted that China was now Australia's largest export market, and Australia is the largest supplier of bulk commodities to China. Australia could endure an extended period of prosperity in the years ahead through real economic growth due and higher commodity prices Resources sector supply chain failed to keep up with demand from China and aid in keeping commodity prices high || BOJ Deputy Gov Yamaguchi stated that the risk of Japan's entering a double dip recession was small but did concede that uncertainty over its outlook remained high || Japan Strategy Min Kan commented that there remained a strong chance of double dip recession in country . The Japanese Government would likely keep the budget for next fiscal year simulative for Japan's economy. || Moodys analyst commented that European "AAA" Sovereign credits have lost altitude; no fix for long-term solvency risk in Europe || UK Debt Management (DMO) chief Stheeman commented that it would coordinate with BOE when Quantitative easing (QE) would be unwound. The DMO noted that the unwinding would avoid market disruption. He did note that it was premature to discuss QE unwinding at this time. The QE program has not changed the debt management policy or issuance policy and that the DMO had flexibility in supplementary program. Stheeman forecasted 2010/11 period Gilt issuance likely similar to 2009/10 levels and that the debt agency would face similar issuance issues in 2010/11

- In Currencies: The focus has been on the upcoming non-farm payroll report to be released later today. If the October loss in jobs matches the consensus of "only" -175K (vs. -263K in September) then most will see the data as constructive and further assist the risk appetite theme. European media noting that rumors were circulating that the ECB had been lending some of its covered bond purchases. Dealers noted that if true that would mean it is draining liquidity. USD consolidating its prior 24-hour price action ahead of the
US data. EUR/USD hovering the 1.49 level as Gold once again is on the verge of making fresh all-time highs just under the $1,100/oz level. Dealers did note some good option flows with one-month strikes in the 1.45 neighborhood. USD/JPY also continued to be focusing on the 91 option strike that is set to roll off at the NY cut.
- G20 Finance Minister and Central Banker meeti this weekend in
Scotland and currencies are likely to on the agenda again. The recent spat of protectionism that again spouted this week will also be a theme as implementation of exit strategies are discussed.

- Fixed income: Volumes are thin in fixed income this morning in
Europe as investors pause and take a breather ahead of today's pivotal October non-farm payrolls report. Treasuries have undergone some corrective flattening in the overnight session with traders squaring positions ahead of the data. In contrast, the UK yield curve hit fresh steepening highs with 2s10s though 300bps for the first time in the long and storied history of gilt edged securities. There was little market reaction to comments from the head of the DMO, Robert Stheeman who confirmed that next year's issuance would be similar to this years levels. Six month euribor fixed at another all time low just below 1%, notably below the ECB's benchmark refi rate for the first time in 8 months. Rumors swept though the market that the ECB may have been repo-ing some of its covered bonds purchases back into the market (effectively draining liquidity) however the short end of the German yield curve is unmoved with the long end and belly modestly offered. There was similarly little reaction to a comment from a Moody's analyst that European AAA sovereign credits "have lost altitude". The 10y Bund yield is currently +1bps at 3.36%.

- Geo-political: China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) formally announced anti-subsidy investigation into some
US auto imports

- In the papers: NY Times looked at the Chinese reaction to preliminary
US well-pipe anti-dumping fines. Artcile noted that the preliminary US action applied 99% tariff on Chinese made well-pipes. Article stated that China has viewed the moves as entirely protectionist and will take measures to protect its industries. Action follows earlier 'safeguard' duties that US applied to Chinese made tires earlier in 2009.|| The NY Times also noted that the EU is finding trade barriers rising since the start of the global crisis. Article noted that European exporters have faced more than 220 new and restrictive trade measures since the start of the global economic crisis, but a "protectionist worst-case scenario has been avoided as there was no sign of the spiral of protectionism.

*** NOTES ***
- US payrolls will be focus. Late Unemployment Rate over 10% was back in 1983
- Australia's central bank (RBA) raises 2010 growth outlook to 3.25% from 2.25%
- G20 summit in Scotland this weekend
- China PBoC's Fan commented that the Chinese economic recovery would be sustained

- Looking Ahead:
- US earning season winding down: AIG, BX, PSMT expected to report before the bell today
- 7:00 (CA) Canadian Oct unemployment Rate: 8.5%e v 8.4% prior, Net change in employment: 10.0Ke v 30.6K prior
- 8:30 (US) Oct Change in non farm payrolls: -175Ke v -263K prior, unemployment Rate 9.9%e v 9.8% prior
- 8:30 (US) Oct Manufacturing Payrolls: -42Ke v -51K prior
- 8:30 (US) Oct Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior, Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.5% prior, Average Weekly Hours: 33.1e v 33.0 prior
- 9:45 (US) Fed's Evans
- 10:00 (US) Sept Wholesale Inventories: -1.0%e v -1.3% prior
- 11:30 (US) Fed's Duke
- 11:30 (EU) ECB's Gonzales Paramo


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