User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday February 16, 2005 - 11:24:23 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Fate of the dollar

Quotable

“What is Fate?” Nasrudin was asked by a scholar.
“An endless succession of intertwined events, each influencing the other.”
“That is hardly a satisfactory answer. I believe in cause and effect.”
“Very well, “ said the Mulla, “look at that.” He pointed to a procession passing in the street.
“That man is being taken to be hanged. Is that because someone gave him a silver piece and enabled him to buy the knife with which he committed the murder; or because someone saw him do it; or because nobody stopped him?”

The Legend of Nasrudin

FX Trading

Can currency price action over time be defined any better than the Mulla’s definition of fate: “An endless succession of intertwined events, each influencing the other.”?

All eyes and ears, and probably a lot of bets in many markets, are trained on the once lowly disciple of Ayn Rand--Mr. Alan Greenspan. I’m not sure what Miss Rand would have to say about our current culture (that for another time and place), but I’m sure she would marvel at the complex web that global capitalism has woven.

Each day we attempt to forecast price action based on this intertwined web of relationships. And it’s why we look at charts. It’s much easier to see patterns on a chart, than get our arms around things such as: Japan’s recession, UK employment, a rising dollar on lower capital flow, a rising euro on German unemployment. The “big brain” types imply they can see and dissect cause and effect. They seem especially good at it, after the effect. But there are times, when we can view at least the outline of cause and effect.

I often receive email questioning why I am bullish on the dollar over the intermediate-term time frame. I provide the usual rationales to fit my story:

• Positive US yield differential
• Strong “relative” US economic growth
• Plenty of dollar bearishness still in the market
• Action “at the margin” by the Bush administration on the budget deficit problem
• A realization that the a falling dollar is not the key to balancing the US current account

But in the background I keep watching for what I believe is the catalyst that will lead to another strong leg-up in the dollar. And this catalyst is linked tightly with the level of “hawkishness” Mr. Greenspan displays going forward—the China Bubble. And though China is the darling of the investment elite, make no mistake, it is a bubble.

We all know that bubbles end badly—we just don’t know when. But as Mr. G tightens down the monetary screws, we inch closer and closer to fate! Should fate prevail, a whole bunch of money will come rushing back onto the shores of good old Uncle Sam, providing a tidy little boost for the buck.

“China, appears to be experiencing the biggest liquidity bubble in its history. The hot money inflow totaled US$656 billion in 2003–04, which has made money cheaper in Asia than in the US. The hot money turns into demand, primarily through property speculation.

“I believe this global liquidity bubble, with China at its heart and property and hedge funds as its two lungs, will burst if: 1) the Fed raises interest rate quickly; 2) overcapacity overwhelms speculative demand, or 3) a financial accident occurs that decreases risk appetite.”

Andy Xie, Morgan Stanley

Thank you Mr. Xie! Another brilliant summation.

This is the reason the Chinese have put “revaluation” on hold. Despite the growing consensus belief that a soft-landing is assured, China is still mired in Bubblesville.

Taking Mr. Xies points in reverse order: 3) financial accident—for sake of familiarity, let’s call these Black Swan events. We can’t predict them, but we MUST understand they are always lingering out there at the edge when speculation reaches fever pitch. 2) Chinese overcapacity—heck, even the Chinese government knows overcapacity in some sectors is running rampant. 1) The Fed raises rates quickly—the wild card…but is it really that wild?

One of Andy’s colleagues, Richard Berner at Morgan, sees Mr. G’s hawkish side winning the day:

“Amid these crosscurrents, there is scant reason for Fed Chairman Greenspan to signal any change to the Fed’s game plan when he testifies before Congress this week. Despite the fears of some officials that inflation could pick up more quickly, recent Fed speeches and statements still suggest that “accommodation can be removed at a measured pace.” And following 150 basis points of tightening, monetary policy is closer to everyone’s appraisal of neutrality. Yet few officials would deny that there is still work to do, especially if inflation risks do escalate. Thus, while a slower pace of tightening is likely at some point, it’s premature to signal such a change. For a market priced to a Fed that sharply slows the pace no later than June, Mr. Greenspan’s comments may thus sound downright hawkish.”

Though it appears the recent back-up in the dollar should technically have more to go on the downside, the preponderance of intertwined relationships, coupled with our inability to link cause and effect—effectively—tells us that anything can happen. And that’s why they call it a market.

Jack Crooks

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 11 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105